Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

you are entitled to your opinion no matter how handcocks PHE it might sound.

 

As you have no issues with the BMJ article, which quite clearly supports my point,

and only pedant issues with my terminology, and clearly personal issues with me (as I have with windbags like you)

 

I'll happily take my point as accepted.

 

and as you have only snipes to make, to which it is utterly pointless responding,

I'll happily now actually permanently ignore you - as you made a point of rather sadly repeatedly claiming you had me.

 

Blow into the wind all you like.

[BazzaS]

Supports your point?

 

you are a “broken clock”.

a broken clock is wrong most of the time, and is of no use. However, it is correct twice a day, so even broken clocks can be “correct”, just rarely.

 

In case anyone wants to understand points 2 & 3 (which is what the BMJ article is really pointing out, rather than TJ’s assumption it supports them), my previous offer stands, and I’ll quote it below.

 

 

14 hours ago, BazzaS said:

If you’d like give me rates for number of true +ve, number of true negative, and the corresponding numbers of false +Ve’s and false negatives for (say) 100 tests, then

I’ll give you the sensitivity, specificity, NPV, PPV and prevalence.

 

Or you can give me sensitivity and specificity, together with the prevalence, and I’ll give you the NPV and PPV.

 

[honeybee13]

More European countries have suspended use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine. But David Spiegelhalter, who is a statistician has analysed the figures and put them in perspective.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links

[BazzaS]

Excellent article, HB.

 

”One way of doing this would be promoting the scientific method and ensuring everyone understands this basic principle”

 

The key question he highlights is “how do we know those 34 cases of blood clots weren’t going to happen anyway?

 

 Another scientists’ favourite is highlighting the difference between correlation and causation.

http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

One of my favourites is the apparent correlation (1999-2009) between ‘no. of people drowning from fall into a pool’ and ‘no. of films Nicholas Cage starred in’ for each of those years. If Nicholas Cage had taken a career break, would there have been fewer drownings?

 

Damn those scientists / statisticians, insisting on their jargon and explanations!

Edited March 16, 2021 by BazzaS

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

More European countries have suspended use of the Astra Zeneca vaccine. But David Spiegelhalter, who is a statistician has analysed the figures and put them in perspective.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/15/evidence-oxford-vaccine-blood-clots-data-causal-links

 

Too true HB in in not too technical a form

Seems strange to me that the EU would first complain about the O/AZ being withheld from them (rightly or wrongly), then allow seemingly quite straightforward 'fake news' be taken to the level it seems to be..

The EU leadership is clearly not what it was, and recently seems close to approaching some Johnsonian level stupidity on occasion..

 

My issues with the O/AZ are not risk of harm, and especially not a risk of being deliberately infected or some bonkers claim of alien tracking mechanism being inserted into me

but simply its effectiveness which to me seems significantly inferior (across a broad range) to the pfiser which was the alternative - .... once you got past the twisting of misleading technical 'excuses'.

 

I obviously want the best option thats available - and had the O/AZ as I couldn't find anywhere the pfiser was or would likely to be available over a reasonable timeframe.

 

[honeybee13]

I think opinions very on the effectiveness of O/AZ, TJ, some of them are pretty favourable.

 

But at the risk of repeating myself, someone in the Washington Post said that the best vaccine for you is the one you can get.

[tobyjugg2]

and For info

 

Everyone we know (friends and family and now quite a number of colleagues) who have had the O/AZ have had varying but significant flu like symptoms (shivering, headaches, temperature).

Some are reported to have been absolutely floored by it for more than 48 hours, but  most are over it apart from some residual 'washed out' feeling within 48 hours, although the effects are not trivial in the short term

 

All report bruising levels they didnt get with flu jabs

Mixed reports on pain/numbness in the arm. I got no significant numbness or pain in the arm, just 'significantly extra' bruising despite no pain during the injection itself.

 

Not a scientific sample but interesting

 

[tobyjugg2]

32 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I think opinions very on the effectiveness of O/AZ, TJ, some of them are pretty favourable.

 

Yes and mine is that even at worst its at least as effective against some strains of Coronavirus, including currently prevalent stains here, as flu jabs are against the prevalent flu strains at the time

But that does seem to be on the brink of rapidly changing.

 

[tobyjugg2]

Be interesting when we see any US approval (or not) detail

 

Don't just read the headlines: (all of it little more than 10 mins of reading)

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/fda-could-reject-astra-zeneca-s-covid-vaccine-efficacy-and-manufacturing-shortfalls-analyst

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/12/vaccine-trials-can-still-surprise-us/617247/

 

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

Another take on the EU and AZ vaccine from Richard North

 

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/corona/brexit-vaccine-wars/

[honeybee13]

I don't always agree with Richard North, but that seems like a balanced article to me.

[brassnecked]

Yes the Johnson narrative is often flawed

 

[maroondevo52]

I received my Vaccination appointment letter on Friday 12th March, the appointment was for Monday 15th which I could not attend.

The NHS site for you to reschedule has been down since at lease Friday 12th.

When you phone the help line they tell you that they cannot help as they use the same online site !!!

 

Good news is I got in to see my mum at the care home for the first time in 12 months and she's doing ok.

Turned out a good Mothers day.

[honeybee13]

That's annoying about your vaccination, MD. Lovely news about your Mum though, I should think she was pleased as well.

[honeybee13]

The BBC are reporting that a batch of vaccine from India has been held up, resulting in appointments for younger groups being cancelled while vaccine centres concentrate on second jabs.

 

If I read it right, it's 5m doses held up and I'm not sure I understand why that means so many appointments can't go ahead.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56438629

[tobyjugg2]

"The Commission President is concerned that 41 million vaccine doses have been exported from the EU to 33 countries in six weeks, with more than ten million going to the UK. That is more than the total administered in the UK during February, and more than a third of the total.

On the other hand, there is no record of UK-produced vaccines being exported to EU Member States"

 

Re the now reported shortfalls by the UK - It would seem that India has jumped on the UK vaccine nationalism bandwagon, telling apparently all others that their own take precedence.

- with the UK apparently one of the hardest hit in reductions in deliveries (not properly validated that)

 

Should the EU follow suite, or worse - mimic the UK's stance - and given the US's similar stance ...

Edited March 18, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Anyone actually know what shipments of the Russian vaccine are due here?

[tobyjugg2]

20 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

The BBC are reporting that a batch of vaccine from India has been held up, resulting in appointments for younger groups being cancelled while vaccine centres concentrate on second jabs.

 

If I read it right, it's 5m doses held up and I'm not sure I understand why that means so many appointments can't go ahead.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56438629

 

Its not just 5 million, and could be that many a month for the next 2-3 months if not longer

Add to that if the EU don't carry on sending the 10 million doses they have already sent to the UK in reciprocation of the UK's stance

 

.. and add to that the potential for the current O/AZ jab being ineffective/low effectiveness against variations of the Virus already in the wild and which WILL spread like wildfire in any relaxation of the lockdown, including among the vaccinated who will be more likely to be a/less symptomatic

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

A very possible actual source of the Cov-2 outbreak through illegal trading in the Chinese wet markets

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/stop-wildlife-trade/thailand-seized-wildlife-trafficking-sting-illegal-trade-b924930.html

 

Oh - and India is not banning vaccine exports - and is doing largely what the UK has done

They are not banning exports of the vaccines, just not sending them.

Edited March 19, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[maroondevo52]

On 18/03/2021 at 11:51, honeybee13 said:

That's annoying about your vaccination, MD. Lovely news about your Mum though, I should think she was pleased as well.

 

Just had a look on their website and it says a new appointment letter will be sent week beginning the 22nd March to everyone that had been given an appointment for the 15th, looks like someone mucked up somewhere.

[honeybee13]

This Twitter thread by a US/European journalist is illuminating. He thinks that US First and UK First clauses in vaccine contracts are preventing vaccine doses getting to Europe, whilst Europe has exported to the UK, US, Canada and Mexico.

 

https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1372897635577761803

 

[tobyjugg2]

Pensioner given warning after socially distanced cuppa in communal garden

"The pensioner was let off with a warning but was told that if she was caught chatting with neighbours outside, she would receive a fine."

and how did they do it - 2 of them entering her home ...

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/covid-warning-police-pensioner-tea-b1819284.html

 

Should have gone to skeggy beach where there are apparently no covid requirements ..

Twats

 

Edited March 20, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

The pensioner one is just crazy,

[tobyjugg2]

USA has 10's of millions of Astra Zenica vaccine sitting in facilities

and

U.S. to (consider) Send(ing) Millions of Vaccine Doses to Mexico and Canada (as loans)

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/americas/usa-mexico-vaccine-coronavirus.html

 

But refuses Europe

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

 

"AstraZeneca has asked the Biden administration to let it loan American doses to the European Union, where it has fallen short of its original supply commitments and where the vaccination campaign has stumbled badly.

The administration, for now, has denied the request" .... .. aka If the UK where you are based doesn't, why should we

 

 

US approval of the vaccine has still not been given and has been delayed:

'in part because of a pattern of communication blunders by AstraZeneca that weakened the company’s relationship with American regulators and slowed the vaccine’s development."

 

... the UK apparently approved the Vaccine despite (apparently) similar issues with disclosure, openness and 'unusual methods of testing/reporting

Edited March 20, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

How weird

Not loged in here only shows posts back to feb, log in and all the newer posts are here with the same number of pages..

whoever re-jigged the site really jiggered it up.

 

 

The vaccine inequity that threatens us all

Of the nearly 400 million vaccines delivered so far, about 90 percent have gone to residents of wealthy and middle-income countries, while the rest of the world may have to wait years, potentially prolonging the pandemic.

By partnering with drug companies, Western leaders bought their way to the front of the line, while billions of people wait their turn. But virus variants originating in mostly unvaccinated countries could eventually undo richer countries’ progress, blunting the effect of vaccines.

It didn’t have to be like this. Western governments have resisted the call from global health officials to use rarely employed aggressive powers that could have forced companies to publish vaccine recipes, share their knowledge and ramp up manufacturing, in turn leading to broader vaccine access.

The U.S. government is expected to receive a patent this month on a molecular engineering technique that originated in a National Institutes of Health lab and is at the heart of at least five major Covid-19 vaccines. It could present an opportunity to pressure drug companies to expand access to vaccines to less affluent countries.

Vaccine diplomacy: Russia and China have promised to fill the void, entering into partnerships with producers in places such as Kazakhstan and Indonesia. The global vaccine alliance Covax, which stands to receive $4 billion from the Biden administration, aims to vaccinate 20 percent of people in the world’s poorest countries this year. It faces a $2 billion shortfall. -NYT briefing

Edited March 22, 2021 by tobyjugg2