Mutating Corona Virus

[brassnecked]

Thought wee Nippy would tell Police Scotland to arrest his sorry ass

[tobyjugg2]

Hoped BN, the term is Hoped ...

 

 

Bet he had more than 6 with him

That'll be £10k fine Johnson

 

Facetious days out and outside his town/village

Edited January 28, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

I had to give a little wry smile to hear Gove excusing Johnson as the Representative of the UK government (to Scots ) .. Twit

 

.. and Gove follow that up looking down and mumbling 'stronger together'

.. now how did that work out for Cameron?

 

Bet the independence side has got another % point gain from it

Edited January 28, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and now Johnson, with his own very clear wry look

'a referendum with no idea how it will be at the end ..

 

Well, I'm certain Nickie has a very good idea ..

and certainly better than simply lying about everything Johnson

 

talk about deja vu, and 'what comes around goes around

Edited January 28, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

The vaccine ruccus is rather interesting

 

Think back to the UK gov going ballistic about sturgeon releasing actual figures, and the UK claiming far more vaccinations than they were supposed to have received actual doses

 

The issue seems to be that the EU have apparently been told they wont receive anything like the number of doses they had pre-ordered,

and we assume thats post authorisation

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

FullFact have checked reports that the Oxford/AZ vaccine doesn't work on older people and think these claims are untrue.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/german-astrazeneca-8-percent-handelsblatt/

[brassnecked]

In reality the testing on ALL the vaccines has been shortened, and political expediency comes into it as well.   The info sheet on Phizer is enough top put many off by the aspects of it that haven't beeen tested, along with  the adverse reation and side effects being reported, the most serious being death. 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-for-covid-19/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccine

 

The Oxford AZ is more a traditional vaccine unlike the Phizer so is likely better tolerated  Don't forget the EU are in full on panic mode with vaccines, and  are becoming annoyed they messed up in some ways. BUT they were more concerned with vaccines safety than Hancock is who like the Air Ministry with the Armstrong Whitworth Abermarle ( an underwhelming aircraft) hancock bought the vaccines even before tested.

[honeybee13]

One of the US papers said yesterday that Hancock and the government are in a real time experiment with vaccines, using the US population. Not so much on ordering and testing but on playing around with delay periods between vaccine doses.

[tobyjugg2]

The info (lacking) sheet on O/AZ is appalling even compared to pfiser

.. as is the pitiful number tested by O/AZ before authorisation including mostly younger folk and the related boosting of efficacy claims.

.. as were the content free/munged Johnsonesque presentations by the frontman 'oxford professor' by O/AZ already commented on in this thread - and the secrecy Johnson removing and refusing to declare actual figures of a national interest vaccine rollout

 

.. oh and O/AZ simply leaving of the bog standard warnings that are on everything including paracetamol doesn't make it any safer - just increases the concern - ask even Trumps team let alone Bidens or the EU's. 

 

Regarding the EU O/AZ tiff

.. interesting that O/AZ will release a phrase, without context, but not even the paragraph - let alone the whole agreement that the EU is quite happy to be released

If O/AZ agreed to a delivery deal to get funding even if only based of their finance sheets showing 10's of millions of confirmed orders,

then suddenly say that they will deliver as few as 31 million doses of an expected 100-120 million by March when the UK has NOT only no impact to their deliveries whatsoever - but actually seem to be getting far more than the UK had 'declared - then that's arguably fraud.

 

The date the agreement was signed is actually irrelevant. As Likely is whether or not doses were shipped from EU plants to the UK or the other way - UNLESS it reduces what would be available to supply according to agreement to one customer to the benefit of supplying to another.

 

 

also interesting that there are 'Teething problems with none UK production facilities, despite not only:

* any such teething problems already apparently having been resolved in the UK production facilities (what - they cant apply lessons learned either - how Johnsonesque). they have arguable had LONGER to resolve the EU plant issues.

* Lets not forget part of the allegations are that those EU plants with 'teething' problems have already been supplying the UK.

 

Now I can accept that the UK fast 'fast tracked' the O/AZ and phiser emergency use approvals and even given the short cuts and munging I wouldn't argue strongly against it

and as I already stated, I wouldn't be overly concerned about up to a MAX of 12 weeks before 2nd dose (o/h is currently scheduled at about 8 weeks for second dose) - although it IS more concerning the further beyond 6 weeks it gets.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I think someone's releasing the agreement today, possibly Germany.

 

David Allen Green's blog has an interesting assessment of what the agreement is likely to say. He was a procurement lawyer before being a journo.

 

https://davidallengreen.com/

[honeybee13]

I wouldn't be overly concerned about up to a MAX of 12 weeks before 2nd dose (o/h is currently scheduled at about 8 weeks for second dose) - although it IS more concerning the further beyond 6 weeks it gets.

 

Time will tell I guess, but the UK doesn't seem to be setting stocks aside for follow ups and any decrease in supply could mean people go over even the 12 weeks.

[tobyjugg2]

 

22 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Time will tell I guess, but the UK doesn't seem to be setting stocks aside for follow ups and any decrease in supply could mean people go over even the 12 weeks.

 

Too true

but I think a large part of the EU's ire is not actually based on them receiving less doses because of genuine production issues ..

but that it is a targeted reduction and the UK is receiving significantly more than was agreed while the EU is receiving dramatically less than agreed.

 

If that is the case, then AZ could reap the whirlwind if/when J&J and the other options come online in bulk later this year, particularly given the actual apparently quite low efficiency of the O/AZ (still better than flu jab efficiency though)

 

Hard to be certain, but from what I can see:

O/AZ efficiency could be as low as 56% (after 3-4 weeks) in the older folk that are getting one jab (still at least as good as most flu jabs)

Pfiser - over 70% efficiency in the same people/period for one jab with the O/AZ needing 2 to get to that

 

Lots of issues surrounding the 2nd jab being needed to boost T cell production which MAY be more or at least as important as the commonly referred anti-bodies it would seem.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

some better news

 

"The US -based Novavax said the results of its phase 3 final trials in the UK, involving 15,000 people, showed 89.3% efficacy. Almost 4,000 people in the study (27%) were in the over-65 age group, who are most at risk from the virus. Half the cases of Covid in the trial were identified as caused by the variant that emerged in Kent, known as B117."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/28/novavax-covid-vaccine-shown-to-be-nearly-90-effective-in-uk-trial

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673620326611

 

 

Pre-clinicalimmunogenicity.pdf

[tobyjugg2]

Not so good:

"

Novavax’s vaccine is less effective against South Africa variant

The pharmaceutical company Novavax said for the first time yesterday that its Covid-19 vaccine offered robust protection against the coronavirus: An early analysis of a 15,000-person trial in Britain revealed that the two-dose vaccine had an efficacy rate of nearly 90 percent there.

But the vaccine was also found to be less effective against the fast-spreading variant first discovered in South Africa, another setback in the global race to end a pandemic that has already killed more than 2.1 million people. In a relatively small trial in South Africa, the vaccine’s efficacy rate dropped to just under 50 percent.

The South African trial had only 4,400 volunteers and was not designed to come up with a precise estimate of how much protection the vaccine provides. Still, the results were striking enough that the company said it would soon begin testing a new vaccine tailored to protect against the South Africa variant."   -NYT   Not looking so good for a real solution  without a world wide 'smallpox like eradication program.

[tobyjugg2]

5 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

FullFact have checked reports that the Oxford/AZ vaccine doesn't work on older people and think these claims are untrue.

 

https://fullfact.org/health/german-astrazeneca-8-percent-handelsblatt/

 

Clarification

Of course they are debunking the ridiculous claim that the O/AZ vaccine is only 8% effective for older folk

NOT the far more legitimate claim supported by the rather limited test results, that its only about 56% at best after one dose for older folk

.. and even that not taking into effect that t-cell increased protection only seems to start significantly after the second dose.

 

Lets also always keep in mind that flu vaccines are considered a success at those levels.

[tobyjugg2]

Sure theres more to it, but the EU certainly seem to have lost the plot somewhat even in the face of possible quite severe provocation

We expect such apparent madness from Johnson ... but not the EU

 

Going to qualify it by stating IMO the rather stupid claims I have seen on the Boris Broadcasting Company that 'best endeavours' in a contract is a 'we can deliver or not as we please as long as we make some sort of excuse' is horsesh*t

 

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

On 29/01/2021 at 08:53, brassnecked said:

The Oxford AZ is more a traditional vaccine unlike the Phizer so is likely better tolerated

Does traditional automatically mean better tolerated?  Is there no chance of anything new being as good or better?

[tobyjugg2]

Good question, with no clear answer that i can see, although the 'risk' of active viral bits being left in 'traditional vaccines is spun by some.

.. As is the claims that the 'newer style of vaccines are cheaper,  easier and quicker to make which projected 'prices disputes.

The 'profiteering aspects of the vaccines is yet to hit the fan, as is any 'weaponised/politicised aspects of sale and distribution.

 

https://www.biospace.com/article/comparing-covid-19-vaccines-pfizer-biontech-moderna-astrazeneca-oxford-j-and-j-russia-s-sputnik-v/

 

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/there-are-four-types-covid-19-vaccines-heres-how-they-work

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Doris has quietly stopped medicines leaving the UK for the EU, over 100 since last year.

 

https://www.theweek.co.uk/951807/uk-quietly-slapped-restrictions-on-covid-medicine-to-eu

[tobyjugg2]

Full blown EU sanctions not far away I think

 

 

[honeybee13]

For what, TJ? I thought they'd backed off for now.

[tobyjugg2]

Everything .. tit for tat .. but in a quieter way Just like Johnson has been doing

[hightail]

7 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Good question, with no clear answer that i can see, although the 'risk' of active viral bits being left in 'traditional vaccines is spun by some.

No matter what the 'type', what matters is how effective any one is and it makes sense to me that the ones with better proven numbers would have a higher level of side effects because they're creating a better level of immune response in more people.  If 'better tolerated' translates as not creating a reaction because it isn't working in half the population then there's no benefit.

[tobyjugg2]

Sadly its not that straight forward, and the variety of responses that two persons bodily systems can generate is astounding.

 

Consider that some poisons in small doses actually strengthen the bodies defences, just a little too much and it kills them.

Honey Bee venom and curare are such, strychnine another.

and Time is tight

 

 

[honeybee13]

The Byline Times has published an updated summary of Boris's Crony Contracts.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/columns/boris-johnsons-crony-contracts/