Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

more bad news

Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-55642648

 

Wall street journal has some disturbing claims about results manipulation (take heed O/AZ) but article is subscribers only but see here:

https://theportlandpost.com/2021/01/13/disappointing-chinese-vaccine-results-pose-setback-for-developing-world/

 

 

and that:

Most people who have had Covid-19 are protected from catching it again for at least five months, a study led by Public Health England shows.

Past infection was linked to an 83% lower risk of getting the virus, compared with those who had never had Covid-19, scientists found.

But experts warn some people do catch Covid-19 again - and can infect others.

 

 

Do understand that - that 83% have higher resistance for 5 months

Edited January 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and the converse that 17% dont have higher resistance for 5 months

[honeybee13]

The Byline Times thinks the UK is still following the same herd immunity strategy after a government official spoke to the select committee yesterday.

 

https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/13/government-official-reveals-uk-still-pursuing-ridiculous-herd-immunity-strategy/

[tobyjugg2]

 

Might surprise some, but I think that assessment of what actually occurred by byeline times  is sensationalism and largely false

 

Johnson and the ERTG may still adhere to a form of that policy (herd culling) but I dont think the claims in byline times are warrented in this instance.

 

Does highlight that the situation is no way under any form of coherent and sensible management though.

 

ALL the current evidence points to limited (in both time and spread) immunity whether from surviving infection or vaccine.

 

 

I think its more that theTrump/Johnson/ ERG types dont care if people die rather than a specific herd immunity policy  - unless they can profit from it. Its whatever makes them money and doesn't cost them.

Edited January 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Expanding on that, I think the references to protecting/vaccinating  the elderly/care homes first is politics driving policy rather than(some herd )  policy driving politics.

 

Johnson has shouted about it so much that he cant change the policy; without be forced by media; as it will prove yet again his incompetence, weakness and total unsuitability to the position he holds.

Anything else would require competence and strength of character - neither of which he has.

Edited January 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

It would also seem to be that anyone not in the highest priority group or NHS red zone staff should NOT be expecting a vaccination before the end of FEB at the very earliest  .. and thats starting vaccination of others starting end of Feb .. maybe

 

That may change, but it seems to be the situation currently.

[hightail]

3 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

It would also seem to be that anyone not in the highest priority group or NHS red zone staff should NOT be expecting a vaccination before the end of FEB at the very earliest  .. and thats starting vaccination of others starting end of Feb .. maybe

 

That may change, but it seems to be the situation currently.

I think the predictions are wildly optimistic tbh.  Sticking needles in the arms of a group of care home residents and then 'observing' them for 15 minutes all at once is a very different game to dealing with separate individuals who need to stay socially distanced.  The rate has to slow.

[tobyjugg2]

even at 2 million a week (seems very unlikely in anything but munged claims rather than reality with Johnsons numpteys)

- thats still 25ish weeks to get to a real 'herd immunity' level

- 5 months from end of feb - takes us to start of sept.

Just about scratch through ready to start again and be done with the fresh inoculations by next Feb

 

... provided the virus doesn't continue to mutate more infectious and doesn't bypass the inoculation immunity

That is what gov should be planning and preparing for - plan and prepare for bad, hope for good - fat chance of that either.

Edited January 14, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2020/12/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-deployment-plan-2021/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-deployment-plan-2021/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-deployment-plan-2021/govscot%3Adocument/COVID-19%2Bvaccine%2Bdeployment%2Bplan%2B14%2BJanuary%2B2021.pdf

[hightail]

23 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

even at 2 million a week (seems very unlikely in anything but munged claims rather than reality with Johnsons numpteys)

- thats still 25ish weeks to get to a real 'herd immunity' level

- 5 months from end of feb - takes us to start of sept.

Just about scratch through ready to start again and be done with the fresh inoculations by next Feb

What about it needing yearly boosters - at least, maybe even more often depending on which 'expert' chooses to throw an opinion into the ring.  We'll need to start doing those next December so we have no chance of ever catching up.

[maroondevo52]

Was informed today my mums carehome are getting their 1st vaccine jab on the 20th January.

[tobyjugg2]

I think yearly 'boosters' might not be enough, especially if the mutations continue

It may well end up like the flu and need targeted vaccines every year, with possible extra boosters for significant changes.

 

How serious? Dunno yet.

But consider that 'flu' is a number of different virus' and the vaccination effectiveness depends on whether the right strains are picked to go into the jab.

The pandemic which peaked over last winter and spring was with a very limited number of strains of Covid

- the number of variants of covid are growing and growing in infectiousness

 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-do-covid-19-vaccines-compare-with-other-existing-vaccines

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

 

Its quite likely that we will still be very significantly in the thrall of Covid and its offspring all through this year and quite possibly longer.

That possibility growing the longer Johnson and Handcock are leading the fight against it here.

 

Consider that the Scot gov released detailed information that included vaccine deliveries expected - and Johnsons crew went apes**t and had everything taken down including tweets with the detail it seems

Undoubtedly not for 'commercially sensitive' aspects - but because the info gave the lie to Johnsons 'the Liars' claims of number of injections and his claims garbage waffle that it will be all great in a week or two/by spring etc as we have already seen.

[tobyjugg2]

On 14/01/2021 at 18:23, tobyjugg2 said:

even at 2 million a week (seems very unlikely in anything but munged claims rather than reality with Johnsons numpteys)

- thats still 25ish weeks to get to a real 'herd immunity' level

- 5 months from end of feb - takes us to start of sept.

Just about scratch through ready to start again and be done with the fresh inoculations by next Feb

 

... provided the virus doesn't continue to mutate more infectious and doesn't bypass the inoculation immunity

That is what gov should be planning and preparing for - plan and prepare for bad, hope for good - fat chance of that either.

 

and Seen today that Rabb says they hope to have to have offered all adults 'the first' jab by Sept

 

 

[honeybee13]

I saw earlier that Raab said to Andrew Marr that the government couldn't guarantee that people would get their second jab within 12 weeks of the first. That worries me as they've already gone over the three week timescale recommended by Pfizer.

 

Correction: not Marr, Sky News.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-vaccine-dominic-raab-coronavirus-b1788498.html

 

 

[brassnecked]

Bit convenient this infinitely variable spacing between two jabs, especially if the manufacturer is unsure if adequate or any protection provided beyond the 3 wweks,

[tobyjugg2]

Up to 12 weeks (max) delay in the second dose, despite it not being the 'approved' process doesn't concern me unduly given the results I've seen.

Any more certainly would. As would YET ANOTHER political decision to move away from the science while hiding the facts behind the politics..

 

Anything more than confirmed 'inside 12 week second dose' could perhaps be indicating that 

a) A dose of vaccine only gives 5'ish months significantly improved  increased resistance and that the second dose adds little.

b) They simply aren't going to get the doses they claim

c) The Virus is expected to mutate beyond the current vaccines before the vaccination rollout is anything like complete

or a mix or all of the above.

 

That Rabb is not confirming anything for a second dose really does concern me.

We are already hearing of 'issues' with delivery of the pfiser vaccine doses, and some of the mutation 'paths are deeply worrying

[honeybee13]

The writer of this article is concerned that Matt Hancock is already thinking of opening up the economy too early, despite previous failures.

 

Has anyone seen any indication that there's a plan for giving people the second vaccination in good time? And also to revaccinate all the people who had the jab at the beginning when they think immunity will have 'worn out' for want of a better expression? Six months, a year or whatever.

 

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

Meanwhile in Wales Drakeford has admitted he is delaying vacccinations in Wales to conserve supplies

 

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1385384/mark-drakeford-wales-coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-oxford-astrazeneca-vncinations.

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-vaccine-wales-mark-drakeford-19645075

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

The writer of this article is concerned that Matt Hancock is already thinking of opening up the economy too early, despite previous failures.

 

Has anyone seen any indication that there's a plan for giving people the second vaccination in good time? And also to revaccinate all the people who had the jab at the beginning when they think immunity will have 'worn out' for want of a better expression? Six months, a year or whatever.

 

 

Nope

 

 

1 hour ago, brassnecked said:

Meanwhile in Wales Drakeford has admitted he is delaying vacccinations in Wales to conserve supplies

 

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1385384/mark-drakeford-wales-coronavirus-vaccine-pfizer-oxford-astrazeneca-vncinations.

 

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-vaccine-wales-mark-drakeford-19645075

 

.. unless he knows something we don't yet know - but maybe has been hinted at

Particularly with his mention of vaccinators sitting around doing nowt in the near future ..

[tobyjugg2]

"Wales was expected to receive 100,000 doses of the second vaccine this week but about a quarter are delayed after failing the regulator's tests."

[hightail]

2 hours ago, brassnecked said:

Meanwhile in Wales Drakeford has admitted he is delaying vacccinations in Wales to conserve supplies

Conserve them for what?  What possible use is a vaccine sitting on shelves being 'conserved'?

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting if you are a virtual citizen of the world

(also interesting that they are still considering the UK as protected by EU data protection rules)

 

https://www.cbs17.com/news/eu-regulator-gets-request-to-approve-oxford-covid-19-vaccine/

 

"Questions also remain about how well the vaccine protects older people. Only 12% of study participants were over 55 and they were enrolled later, so there hasn’t been enough time to see whether they develop infections at a lower rate than those not given the vaccine.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration says it won’t consider approving the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine until data are available from late state research testing the shot in about 30,000 people."

 

"The EU regulator said it received a request for the vaccine to be greenlighted under an expedited process and that it could be approved by Jan. 29 “provided that the data submitted on the quality, safety and efficacy of the vaccine are sufficiently robust and complete.”"

 

- I certainly want to read that.

[tobyjugg2]

31 minutes ago, hightail said:

Conserve them for what?  What possible use is a vaccine sitting on shelves being 'conserved'?

 

“The Pfizer vaccine comes in large packs, which cannot be split and must be stored at ultra-low temperatures – at -70c. There are only two centres in Wales where we can keep them at this temperature. Once removed from storage, the vaccine lasts five-days. Every dose wasted is a vaccine which cannot be given to someone in Wales. Health boards are receiving all the doses of Pfizer they can use.”

 

There does seem to be at least some method in what at first sight seems to be his madness.

Particularly given the reports on refusals/not turn ups given the pfiser 'fragility'

 

Edited January 18, 2021 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

4 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

“The Pfizer vaccine comes in large packs, which cannot be split and must be stored at ultra-low temperatures – at -70c. There are only two centres in Wales where we can keep them at this temperature. Once removed from storage, the vaccine lasts five-days. Every dose wasted is a vaccine which cannot be given to someone in Wales. Health boards are receiving all the doses of Pfizer they can use.”

 

There does seem to be at least some method in what at first sight seems to be his madness.

Particularly given the reports on refusals/not turn ups given the pfiser 'fragility'

 

As opposed to the instruction to medics that they must not use ‘spare’ doses of the vaccine for second doses or on anyone outside the designated groups you mean?  I’m unimpressed with either strategy.  Throwing it away or not using it at all - either way an’t doing any good.

[brassnecked]

Add in thoe who will refuse the Pfizer as they are afraid due to the reports of death and side effects from it That storage requirement is the big issue with its use.