Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

I'm honestly confused as to why testing is targeted at those who show outward signs of the disease

 

I have been since the outset. I can only think it's been to economise on the number of tests done.

[tobyjugg2]

Some stats that should shut up the its just a flu brigade

 

Three times as many people have died from Covid-19 than from flu and pneumonia in England and Wales already this year, according to official figures.

Between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to Covid-19 compared to 13,600 from pneumonia. Only 394 were due to flu.

 

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

38 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I'm honestly confused as to why testing is targeted at those who show outward signs of the disease

 

I have been since the outset. I can only think it's been to economise on the number of tests done.

 

They would then have their lies regarding 'capacity far more in the open HB

and we know that the 'capacity' fell flat on its face once it passed 65k dont we ..

 

Told you they were talking about the 'capacity of a spreadsheet ... and they STILL f...ell short

 

[tobyjugg2]

just short of 600 confirmed cases in Notts on sat

but that includes Nottingham Universities asymptomatic testing program which is a proper one unlike handcock and sercos

 

That may explain the higher cases at some places - they are testing more people and getting more actual results

 

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

Hardly surprising.  If Eton is finding high rates of infection when testing 100% of symptom free pupils (repeatedly I believe) then why should we suppose other schools are any different?  From what I've seen in the media most, or at least many, infected students are symptom free.  I'm honestly confused as to why testing is targeted at those who show outward signs of the disease

 

Interesting scenario expanding on what I understand of Etons vs NottsU testing

 

Eton

Testing is private testing and I believe results are private and not included in the local testing stats,

local stats lower and less accurate,

Students are 'sent home across country when flagged for lockdown

Area avoids lockdown due to 'secret' cases

 

Notts U

Testing is for all

Stats are reported and included in local stats - making them higher and more accurate,

flagged students are locked down locally

Area is flagged for enhanced lockdown

 

So the elite are rewarded for hiding the stats and sidestepping lockdown rules,

'BUT ordinary folk' are penalised for being honest, open, more accurate and obeying the rules and are locked down and told they probably can't even go home for Christmas

 

Sound familiar?

[cjcregg]

9 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I'm honestly confused as to why testing is targeted at those who show outward signs of the disease

 

I have been since the outset. I can only think it's been to economise on the number of tests done.

 

 

Speculative testing doesn't serve any purpose as apart from anything the data that tests provide has a shelf life of a nano second. 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Man, 25, catches coronavirus twice in first such US case

Nevada man with no underlying conditions suffers more serious illness the second time with different strain

 

"It is the fifth confirmation of reinfection worldwide, researchers said, with at least four other cases confirmed in Belgium, the Netherlands, Hong Kong and Ecuador.

The second infection of the patient, who lives in Washoe County, Nevada, was more severe than the first and resulted in hospitalisation with oxygen support."

 

"Reno school of medicine said he tested positive for the virus in April this year, and later tested negative on two separate occasions.

Experiencing Covid-19 symptoms in June, including fever, headache, dizziness, cough, nausea and diarrhoea, he was admitted to hospital and tested positive for a second time."

 

Just 2 months after the first infection - SERIOUS reinfection by  one of the different strains of Covid-19 confirmed

 

Been reported many times now - but now 5 are in different modern hospitals able to sequence the strains

Edited October 13, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I was meaning targeted testing, cj.

 

I'm sure local authorities know how to organise this and maybe they'll be able to organise testing the way public health people decide

[hightail]

3 hours ago, cjcregg said:

Speculative testing doesn't serve any purpose as apart from anything the data that tests provide has a shelf life of a nano second.

It quite clearly revealed high rates of infection  at Eton and at other locations where it’s been used such as universities.  If such testing only ever returned -ve results I’d agree with you that it was nothing more than a pretty useless snapshot.  However, it clearly doesn’t and the most dangerous individuals are those who are symptomless and +ve.  

 

Someone with symptoms already has all the information they need to take appropriate action.  Many, if not most, who then choose to be tested do so for financial rather than health reasons - to continue to work or to at least know when they can earn money again.  Having people go to testing isn’t enough once things open up. Testing needs to go to the people, consider it speculative testing if you like.  Any testing is speculative, if it weren’t why bother with a test?  Schools are an obvious target, children may not get ill but they would be a useful indicator of households to then test.  

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

18 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I was meaning targeted testing, cj.

 

I'm sure local authorities know how to organise this and maybe they'll be able to organise testing the way public health people decide

 

If the number of tests claimed were actually available HB

- as posited higher in the thread re testing at Airports

.. and hospitals, care homes, supermarkets, schools for starters

80,000 daily tests (or perhaps less now given teh issue with sourcing chemicals) spread over a population of 80,000,000

 

 

... or even just implementing temperature tests whether or not the 'cafantasy of the system simply isnt up to even the minimum level of testing needed after 6 months of warning, knowledge and (lack of proper) 'preparing'

 

 

and as hightail quite rightly points out

All testing is speculative, if it weren’t why bother with a test?

 

 

and EVERYONE associated with a confirmed infection should be tested - the very definition of test trace and manage

- else how can any 'trace' possibly work properly, or lockdowns be justified - let alone any spread properly controlled without confirmation of how many the confirmed infected person spread it to?

 

I see Johnson 'The Liar' was still spouting his complete bo****** about 500,000 tests - oopps capacity he corrected himself - a day by the end of the month

when we all know the system fell over at 65,000 and is clearly around 80,000 (65000 +15000 when it fell over)

Edited October 13, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

After

* 6 months of sacrifice - by most

* Families and social groups rent asunder

* Grandparents isolated

* Millions of jobs hanging by a thread - 10% more unemployment before the support even ends

 

and despite 6 months of relative grace and almost certainly being at the start of an epidemic quite possibly twice as long and 10 times worse

- Johnson still has

* No rational plan

* No effective test system with any real world required 'capacity

* 17 million people locked down - and rising

* Basic practice mechanisms still unimplemented- yet elite privilege solidly in place

* No proper support for MILLIONS of people and businesses locked down

* No effective trace having squandered the trust and taxpayer money into the private sectors pockets - for FAILING

* 40BN a year needed in extra taxes just to pay for what Johnson has largely wasted

* Throwing British food standards on the bonfire with British word, honour and trust he has trashed

 

and still 2 and a half years to go.

 

Well in my opinion, it should NOT be the British word and honour and food standards and society going on the bonfire

Johnson might well try to cancel bonfire night .... 

Bet I know what the favourite effigy will be this year

 

We'll just have to all resort to sticking pins in scruffy haired blond voodoo dolls until then.

https://www.etsy.com/uk/listing/558602886/boris-johnsonvoodoo-doll-pin?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=boris+johnson&ref=sr_gallery-1-14

 

do it with feeling folks - do it enthusiastically and with feeling

 

[tobyjugg2]

Beginners Guide to tier 2 lockdown

 

* You must not 'socialise' with anybody outside of your household or support bubble in any indoor setting, whether at home or in a public place

.. UNLESS

In a pub, restaurant, (sub rules may apply) bus, train, supermarket, school, place of worship ..... Place of work , Westminster subsidised bar or are otherwise  privileged. (note: not a complete list)

- as of course the virus is smart enough to realise you aren't actually socialising in those.

 

* You must not socialise in a group of more than 6 outside, including in a garden or other spaces like beaches or parks

.. UNLESS

In a pub garden, restaurant garden, ..... Place of work , train station, bus station, exercise classes, sporting events like grouse shooting or stag hunting or are otherwise privileged. (note: not a complete list)

- as of course the virus is smart enough to realise you aren't actually socialising in those except for the stag hunting and grouse shooting - but the virus is a Tory virus which of course respects privilege.

 

Note: this will of course require arranging a none social outing on a bus or in a supermarket and hope the virus doesn't notice the socialising among all the none socialising people

 

* Certain businesses are required to ensure customers only consume food and drink while seated, and must close between 10pm and 5am

- as the virus respects seated people as long as they aren't socialising and it mostly on works nights anyway

- so take the O/H to minimise any socialising.

 

* If a child is exposed

Take them home and carry on shopping and going to work as normal as the virus is a Tory virus and expects you to continue working until you can successfully show signs of infection.

but ensure the child stays in.

Important:

DO NOT request a test for anyone until you can successfully show signs of infection.

Other children in the affected household should continue going to their schools/classes/bubbles then returning home until they can successfully show signs of infection. At which stage they can and should isolate without testing with parents carrying on until demonstrably infected.

 

 

 

 

[cjcregg]

9 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I was meaning targeted testing, cj.

 

 

Targeting who?

[honeybee13]

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200611.868893/full/

[cjcregg]

7 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200611.868893/full/

 

Are you posting this link as an answer to my question? 

[cjcregg]

9 hours ago, hightail said:

 

 

Someone with symptoms already has all the information they need to take appropriate action. 

 

 

 

I'm not sure that's right but are you saying people with symptoms shouldn't be tested in preference to people that are? Testing people with symptoms is critical to determining the extent & spread of the virus and as such the appropriate measures to take either nationally or locally.

[hightail]

12 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

Testing people with symptoms is critical to determining the extent & spread of the virus and as such the appropriate measures to take either nationally or locally.

That's exactly what we've used the testing process for.  Nothing more than documenting the spread among those who choose to be tested.  What an utter and complete waste.  Testing only those with symptoms who a. choose to get tested and b. can actually then book a test guarantees we can't get ahead of the game to curb the spread, only chase it.  There's no merit in knowing the numbers if you don't use the information to do something useful in a timely manner.

 

Meanwhile thousands of council and other publicly funded employees have been furloughed (on full pay for all those I know) and instead of sitting at home they could have been doorstepping, and preferably testing, as part of the test and trace system.

[brassnecked]

lets have a step back in time and consider if we had had local track trace & isolate, Nightingales used for that purpose rather than being left empty, and not filled the general hospitals with covid making them reservoirs of infection

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87546

[citizenB]

11 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Man, 25, catches coronavirus twice in first such US case

Nevada man with no underlying conditions suffers more serious illness the second time with different strain

 

"It is the fifth confirmation of reinfection worldwide, researchers said, with at least four other cases confirmed in Belgium, the Netherlands, Hong Kong and Ecuador.

The second infection of the patient, who lives in Washoe County, Nevada, was more severe than the first and resulted in hospitalisation with oxygen support."

 

"Reno school of medicine said he tested positive for the virus in April this year, and later tested negative on two separate occasions.

Experiencing Covid-19 symptoms in June, including fever, headache, dizziness, cough, nausea and diarrhoea, he was admitted to hospital and tested positive for a second time."

 

Just 2 months after the first infection - SERIOUS reinfection by  one of the different strains of Covid-19 confirmed

 

Been reported many times now - but now 5 are in different modern hospitals able to sequence the strains

That will upset 'The Orange one' cos he seems to think that having caught it (or not as the case may be), that he is now immune ! 

[tobyjugg2]

Sadly its largely not good news coming from the vaccine front.

 

The vaccines are looking more and more like the protection they give will be quite limited and quite possibly not cover all the strains

-with perhaps something like the cocktail of the annual flu vaccine possibly being needed

- or a trip into a far more dangerous and experimental immunology and anti-viral areas

 

Scientific estimates of widespread availability of any vaccine appears to be moving away toward the middle of next year already, although none of this is certain - including that there will be any effective vaccine at all - think sars and mers although there was never the level of drivers for those that there is with Covid-19 and its fast appearing descendants.

 

There are already at least 6 'Covid-19' strains identified with one of those having two sub strains

 

 

"Do reinfections occur because of a scant antibody response after first infection? Of the four reinfection cases reported to date, none of the individuals had known immune deficiencies.

Currently, only two individuals had serological data from the first infection and one had pre-existing antibody (IgM) against SARS-CoV-2."

 

 

Who cares about a handful or even if it includes the few dozens or hundred unconfirmed? ...

"Does immunity protect an individual from disease on reinfection?

The answer is not necessarily, because patients from Nevada and Ecuador had worse disease outcomes at reinfection than at first infection. It is important to keep in mind that the reinfection cases in general are being picked up because of symptoms and are biased towards detection of symptomatic cases. Due to the paucity of broad testing and surveillance, we do not know how frequently reinfection occurs among individuals who recovered from their first infection. "

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext

 

 

and although there is some evidence that antibodies of number of cold/flu virus' give some protection from other strains ... not with Covid it would seem

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

 

Edited October 13, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

oops - nearly left it out

A summary politics overview

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/health/covid-vaccines.html

[cjcregg]

3 hours ago, hightail said:

That's exactly what we've used the testing process for.  Nothing more than documenting the spread among those who choose to be tested.  What an utter and complete waste.  Testing only those with symptoms who a. choose to get tested and b. can actually then book a test guarantees we can't get ahead of the game to curb the spread, only chase it.  There's no merit in knowing the numbers if you don't use the information to do something useful in a timely manner.

 

Meanwhile thousands of council and other publicly funded employees have been furloughed (on full pay for all those I know) and instead of sitting at home they could have been doorstepping, and preferably testing, as part of the test and trace system.

 

Somehow I'm not sure that compulsory testing carried out by idle refuse collectors would prove too popular or successful if I'm honest.

[hightail]

5 minutes ago, cjcregg said:

Somehow I'm not sure that compulsory testing carried out by idle refuse collectors would prove too popular or successful if I'm honest.

And if you need to go to a testing centre staffed by the military do you think you'll be able to insist you only interact with the officer classes? 

 

Of all the council employees you could have mentioned - the bin men have been among the most important to keep working and you'd have been in a bloody mess without them just like the rest of us.  Highly qualified librarians and the like have been sat doing nothing - more professional types I'm sure you wouldn't mind dealing with. 

 

[cjcregg]

5 hours ago, hightail said:

And if you need to go to a testing centre staffed by the military do you think you'll be able to insist you only interact with the officer classes? 

 

Of all the council employees you could have mentioned - the bin men have been among the most important to keep working and you'd have been in a bloody mess without them just like the rest of us.  Highly qualified librarians and the like have been sat doing nothing - more professional types I'm sure you wouldn't mind dealing with. 

 

 

My point was highlighting the utter absurdity of your scheme.  Most people in this country would quite rightly not accept being doorstepped and ordered to have a swab shoved up their nose by a non-medical professional whether it's a bin man or local authority chief executive. Think about it.

 

It's you that's got the hang up about class matey, not me.

[tobyjugg2]

9 hours ago, hightail said:

And if you need to go to a testing centre staffed by the military do you think you'll be able to insist you only interact with the officer classes? 

 

Of all the council employees you could have mentioned - the bin men have been among the most important to keep working and you'd have been in a bloody mess without them just like the rest of us.  Highly qualified librarians and the like have been sat doing nothing - more professional types I'm sure you wouldn't mind dealing with. 

 

 

 

Undoubtedly cjcregg only allows a harley street gynaecologist hands on and would rather die than allow anyone else the 'honour...