Mutating Corona Virus

[honeybee13]

One hope in this growing mess is that local authorities, mainly in the north west so far, like Liverpool, are developing their own systems to test and trace, filling in the gaps of what Serco et al are missing.

 

But they're doing it with precious little in the way of funding. In the meantime it looks as if Serco [I think it's them] will be given more hundreds of millions on top of the £100 million that hasn't been effective so far in a couple of weeks. Given that the PM has swanned off to Scotland for a couple of weeks this isn't looking good.

[cjcregg]

8 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

 

I don't think there is.

 

For my part I'm talking about targeted testing and tracing that's done locally. Speculative testing sounds like the Deloitte type car park testing centres who then don't send test results to local public health people who are able to act promptly if they're informed, or at best sent to them too late to be of any use.

 

I meant what the Children's Commissioner was calling for i.e. all school children being tested. Whether that's defined as targeted or not it's a ridiculous suggestion even given the lack of evidence that it would actually work.

 

The UK has achieved 13m processed tests so far in about the last 6 months. England alone has 8m school children and the Children's Commissioner wants them tested every week. 

[hightail]

15 hours ago, cjcregg said:

Is there any evidence that mass speculative testing is an effective strategy in reducing transmission?

I don't know and if there is evidence against doing so I wish someone would explain it.  If I have symptoms I can get tested but if I have symptoms I already know to stay away from people, self-isolate and I would of course.  Isn't it those who don't have symptoms are at high risk of passing it on to others for the longest time? 

Edited August 10, 2020 by hightail

[brassnecked]

How accurate are the tests, and can they be giving a false positive for stuff like a common Cold that is also a Coronavirus?  One thing is certain Test Track & trace is a shambles, the Private companies should never have been involved.  Should have properly funded Local Authorities to do it.

[hightail]

18 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

How accurate are the tests, and can they be giving a false positive for stuff like a common Cold that is also a Coronavirus?  One thing is certain Test Track & trace is a shambles, the Private companies should never have been involved.  Should have properly funded Local Authorities to do it.

Doesn't the 90 minute test claim to be able to identify different viruses eg seasonal flu, Covid-19 etc?

[tobyjugg2]

7 hours ago, cjcregg said:

 

I meant what the Children's Commissioner was calling for i.e. all school children being tested. Whether that's defined as targeted or not it's a ridiculous suggestion

 

The UK has achieved 13m processed tests so far in about the last 6 months. England alone has 8m school children and the Children's Commissioner wants them tested every week. 

 

Worst disingenuous bit of false psuedo scientific garbage removed although expanded on below.
So broadly you are excusing NOT testing children, justified by Johnsons testing failures?

 

Thats surely one of the most effluent 'harse before the cart statements ever, even for you isn't it?

 

There is MORE than ample evidence that:

* Children do catch Covid and ARE infected, and can and do spread covid despite reduced symptoms

* Only the younger children 'tend' to have reduced severe symptoms - and only 'tends' NOT assured

* Children are still infected and despite many sneezing and coughing LESS/Less violently on average than older people - which is the basis for reduced transmission claims - transmission still occurs - especially with Covid being so high in the respiratory system. Reduced is NOT removed.

* What value reduced transmission once introduced into enclosed environments like schools and family homes?

 

So:

Given the UK governments claimed capacity of 300,000 tests per day even without the new 90 minute tests etc

and stats (when you can get them) showing barely 50,000ish  a day actually being 'effectively tested

 

... That leaves (based on Johnson and handcocks official claims) unused/ineffectively used 'spare' capacity of around a quarter of a million tests a day going spare

.. around 1.75 million tests a week not 'effectively used

... even without the new 90 minute tests

 

Enough 'spare' capacity already claimed to be there to test every school child once a month

even without the new tests or the necessary increasing of testing capacity ready for winter and this, let alone the next outbreak.

 

It is a simple fact that even with the above, Johnsons 'world beating' test and trace would be still failing short of the capacity needed even for the MINIMUM needed regular tests (eg care homes, schools, airports, frontline workers

but stopping spending the (£10B+ so far) money wasted on his serco etc private pals profits and population data grab - and spending it on competent testing and tracing could readily sort that..

- prevention is surely better than a cure and ALWAYS better than no cure

 

and anyway, What better use of tax payer money than educating, feeding and protecting children and protecting the families?

so seems utterly clear to me that NOT testing children and teachers and NOT quickly managing any potential outbreaks in schools IS beyond criminal.

 

Of course, Johnson and Handcock could be lying through their teeth about actual capacity, but lies aren't excuses for failures, let alone justifications to lie and fail more.

[honeybee13]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

I don't know and if there is evidence against doing so I wish someone would explain it.  If I have symptoms I can get tested but if I have symptoms I already know to stay away from people, self-isolate and I would of course.  Isn't it those who don't have symptoms are at high risk of passing it on to others for the longest time? 

 

I agree with you explaining. I was thinking yesterday that they tell you what you're supposed to do to stay safe, but they hardly ever, maybe never, explain why these actions help.

 

And I'm also confused about why you only test people with symptoms, for the reasons you say. Unless it's cost?

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

I don't know and if there is evidence against doing so I wish someone would explain it. 

 

If I have symptoms I can get tested but if I have symptoms I already know to stay away from people, self-isolate and I would of course. 

 

Isn't it those who don't have symptoms are at high risk of passing it on to others for the longest time? 

 

Absolutely Right - there isn't. There are only sentences taken out of proper context

 

Absolutely Right - and it seems clear MOST agree and would do the same

- although you can now get a test in those circumstances - although whether a negative result removes the self isolation requirement is not entirely clear is it?

 

Absolutely Right - and that is what is absolutely wrong with what Johnson is doing and reinforces point 1

 

We also need to consider that prevention is what is needed - catch people quickly once they do get infected and before they start transmitting as your point 3 states

- which necessitates testing people who are NOT symptomatic, especially those in close contact with others. eg Shop assistants, care workers, and soon to be school children and teachers.

 

 

 

[hightail]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

And I'm also confused about why you only test people with symptoms, for the reasons you say. Unless it's cost?

I’ll guess it’s capacity at this stage, well I’d hope so.  Surely cost can’t be what matters in the grand scheme of things when you consider what this virus has cost us all so far and will continue to do so for many years.

[tobyjugg2]

250,000 unused/improperly used tests a day ...

 

Now I don't doubt that all of us (even the Johnson apologists) think that Johnson/handcocks claims about testing capacity are complete cobblers

but we need to stop there and correct that base, core issue first - lying about the situation.

 

You not only can't build a solution based on complete crap and lies, to cover lies, to cover lies

(or lies to cover up a 'plan' that the majority would consider monstrous and unacceptable).

and THAT simply has to be making things worse in the real world AND actually making genuine addressing of the issue nigh on impossible.

 

Then stage two

Properly target the testing capacity you actually know you have while you mitigate and address any shortfall in that capacity in a managed, open and honest way.

 

[honeybee13]

From the Telegraph. Apologies that you can't see much of this but you get the gist. HMG are getting local authorities to do what they should have been doing all along.

 

I'll try to find a non paywall version.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/10/troubled-test-trace-system-scaled-back-local-authorities-told/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AvwkDzJhMTVy

[hightail]

Quote

Councils will send staff to trace contacts of people who test positive if call handlers cannot track them down  

That's just another layer.  All we get is layer upon layer of tinkering and nobody knows where they are any more.

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

You're right, hightail. I've read more now and it still sounds like a hybrid system.

 

Why mess about letting the Serco people try to contact people and not just get on with it locally?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/aug/10/nhs-test-and-trace-to-cut-6000-jobs-to-strengthen-regional-teams

[brassnecked]

They need to chuck Serco & G4S into the sea, fund the council Public health departments and let them get on with the job, they can collate locally and feed into a proper central database, whilst keeping their local data safe as backup.  But them matthew handoncock wouldn't be able to micromanage and mess it up, so he wouldn't want that.

[honeybee13]

This is the Royal Society's view on testing for schools.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/10/scientists-urge-routine-covid-testing-when-english-schools-reopen

[brassnecked]

Is a sensible approach if a Parent or other family member is shielding.

[tobyjugg2]

On 10/08/2020 at 17:38, honeybee13 said:

From the Telegraph. Apologies that you can't see much of this but you get the gist. HMG are getting local authorities to do what they should have been doing all along.

 

I'll try to find a non paywall version.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/10/troubled-test-trace-system-scaled-back-local-authorities-told/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AvwkDzJhMTVy

 

I've thought quite hard about that issue, and tried to define what I would do were I organising it.

 

First (bear with me) I would have call centre staff doing the first calls and clearing the easy ones, with failed first contacts passed to local authority experts.

You don't want experts efforts used up and overwhelmed where they are not necessary,

 

BUT these frontline 'cold callers' would not be people paid to sit around doing quizes - these would be very busy people, with set scripts, with a second layer of more skilled, experienced and qualified behind them dealing with the slightly more awkward ones.

It would NOT be overstaffed with clueless untrained numpties at any stage.

 

I simply dont know enough about the mechanisms already available, even if currently understaffed, to manage these sort of things but clearly a 111 type mechanism seems the place to start - NOT some company that has already demonstrated its penchant for overcharge and dramatic under-performance

and the LA track and trace is the blunt end which needs the info to manage the contacts and contain any spread

 

We always come back to needing a central point to co-ordinate, inform and manage - LA's are exceptionally good in theis area without doubt, but commonality and best practices need to be shared and implemented.

- but that simply cant be primarily politically driven - especially not by 'tame' scientists who will say whatever they are told, although clearly its a delicate area.

Something run by a Ruth May comes to mind as a first port of call.

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

More has come out over the day about how it will work now, TJ and sadly it seems the parallel expensive systems will still run. It's unclear whether councils will get any more funds.

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/serco-and-sitel-get-more-public-money-despite-track-and-trace-fiasco/

[tobyjugg2]

To true HB.

 

Its when I get to the 'whats in the way' it all falls apart.

 

It seems quite clear that Johnson/Cummings will always use the Serco's of this world because they are also deeply embedded in the lies and cronyism and will say whatever they are told to say to maintain their profits.

 

Competent, conscientious people will have difficulties with that, and could not be assured of keeping their gobs shut when abuses, malpractice and deceit are uncovered.

[honeybee13]

This paragraph struck me in the article.

 

But if additional funding is not provided, either from redirecting the outsourcing money or from the Treasury, any army of door knockers and local contact tracers will need to be funded from existing council budgets or recruited from volunteers.

 

They expect volunteers to make up for the shortcomings of people or rather their systems whose companies are being paid millions?

[tobyjugg2]

and when you think there have been around 3,000 confirmed new covid cases in the last 3 days ...

 

The only golf club shaped recovery is going to be by the coronavirus

[tobyjugg2]

When you see the reports coming out that serco was involved from the earliest stages apparently to give expertise

 

and that resulted in 18 million plus people coming back into the UK untested from hotspots

.. and then even the general advice to self isolate after they had travelled across the UK home being withdrawn in the run-up to the lock down

 

That went well says cummings

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Oh and before bed

 

Officially leaked statements about a PHE report claiming that a UK study will say there is little evidence of children transmitting Covid.

 

Leakers stats look impressive until you realise he's on Johnson's SAGE so makes you think - huh - hows that then when all the science I've seen says different, and there are a number of reports of spreads in schools across the world from schools that had opened.

 

Then, little as the information 'leaked' is, you see

 

"largest studies in the world on coronavirus in schools"

and then

"The study was carried out in 100 institutions in the UK and is expected to be published later this year. About 20,000 pupils and teachers in 100 schools across England were tested to monitor the spread of the disease up to the end of the summer term – which runs from April-July in Britain."

 

Then you click.

That averages 200 pupils and staff per 'institution' checked

We dont know what these institutions are,

but I think over 200 is the average for infants schools. Other schools tend to be FAR larger.

Did they test everyone at each institution, or just some ??? we don't know yet - they are choosing not to leak that - Wonder why?

 

We currently understand that younger children (pre teenage) seem to present few/less symptoms

 (statistically) but large increases in teenager covid has been reported as lockdowns ease and they start to meet more.

 

I know my OH's grandson (mother a nurse) has remained at school in classes one third or less that normal, with the majority of kids having front line worker parents - so well aware of the discipline and hygiene necessary.

We know the schools maintain distancing, monitoring and maintenance which would be IMPOSSIBLE in normal class sizes.

 

So in a lock down situation, with class sizes significantly lower than normal (highly aware front-line workers kids mainly), increased distancing and cleaning made possible by SIGNIFICANTLY smaller class sizes

- Has maybe resulted in no great evidence of covid spread perhaps?

 

Well Whoopy do. Lets ramp the class sizes back up to 30+ and see what happens ..

 

 

Lets let the mail lead the way

Coronavirus infection rates are rising in ALL age groups under 65, Public Health England data shows with biggest surge in under-fives which 'should be watched very carefully'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8615423/Coronavirus-infection-rates-rising-age-groups-65-Public-Health-England-data-shows.html

 

 

and the ONS stats showing how similar the stats are

(a statistically significant  difference can be very little actual difference)

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/july2020

 

 

Notes:

1. These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which we mean private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.

 

[hightail]

9 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

They expect volunteers to make up for the shortcomings of people or rather their systems whose companies are being paid millions?

Local knowledge is probably key on the ground and I believe local volunteers would be highly effective if such an ‘army’ were still possible.  It isn’t now that people are returning to work.  What’s left available is the group needing to shield.

As with everything through this ‘too late was the cry’.

[London1971]

Actually, living in Wiltshire, looking at how the local Swindon spike in cases are being handled, it seems like harsh lessons really have been learned.  A rapid localisation of pop up testing centres, local Track and Tracing. Lockdown of local Care Homes etc.  It seems like they have it under control. I guess the next couple of weeks will be very telling.