Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

My grandson is looking forward to returning to school but I am worried.

 

Lots of reports that children don't tend to have severe symptoms or are largely asymptomatic, but that does NOT mean they aren't infected and aren't transmitting.

 

As transmission is almost certainly at least largely via droplets in sweat, coughs sneezes and even just heavier breathing in close proximity ...

So if children are largely asymptomatic, there would be less of the coughing and sneezing, and hopefully less of temperature induced sweating BUT that does NOT mean they aren't infected and aren't transmitting, even if they dont have a temperature or constant cough.

 

 

Hers a report from Korea, where they opened up and a batch of new cases where traced back to a single asymptomatic person ... who was believed to have come into contact with in the order of 1500 people ..

https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-hailed-pandemic-response-backtracks-reopening-after-covid-19-cases-jump-1502864

Mind you, Korea will have tested those people ..

 

 

So if we consider schools even as largely healthy places, just a few transmitting cases and those kids going back to households and parents and siblings ....

and those other siblings going to other classes/schools, and those parents going to work/shopping ...

 

and a trace and track approach with no testing ...

 

Look back at that restaurant example higher in the thread.

 

Deeply concerning.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

On a more positive note, it is looking more and more like most people will gain at least some level of immunity once infected, although of course we have no real information on how many of the population that is.

 

Hopefully the antibody tests will prove useful, and widely implemented for as long as necessary.

 

'Old' technology infusions from at least some recovered people also seem to be effective, but will undoubtedly be limited in availability. So politicians and the rich (like footballers) will undoubtedly be OK even if they should get infected now.

 

[London1971]

Honestly, I doubt she’s got it. So far it’s been 9 days and seems to be almost over it. Tiredness, fever, cough. Very, very , very mild. Symptoms came and went, now fever has been gone for 3 days.

 

not got the results yet. We live Wiltshire which is the most Covid free part of the UK. I haven’t been within 2 metres of anyone for months, wash hands diligently . She is shielding and hasn’t been out. The kids haven’t been out other than with me to walk the dog. I suppose I could have brought it back, despite being super careful, but my town has had no confirmed cases for more than a week! I did feel a bit rough for a couple of days the other week, but I put it down to hay fever .

 

Have to see what the test results are, but I’m guessing it was Something else.

[hightail]

19 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

My grandson is looking forward to returning to school but I am worried.

 

Many are but it is a balance.  Early June may be too soon but when will be right?  Harsh as it is to say, we do know who this virus is killing and there has to come a time when we prioritise the futures of the young over the old. 

 

My own daughter in law is high risk but not very high risk - diabetic but still under 40.  My two year granddaughter is back at nursery this week with precautions in place.  My son drops off and picks up and the child washes hands just as leaving and is changed into clean clothes.  Son puts her through a bath before mum emerges from her 'office' - she's still working full time from home.  Yes it's a rigmarole, yes it's a risk but the difference in that child for being able to play with a small, controlled group of other children for a few hours a week is marked.  They are convinced they've made the right decision but it is a very individual decision to make.

[tobyjugg2]

Seems that the automated message 14 day self lock down instruction will be compulsory - seemingly based on whatever/whether  the app or politicians decide on your being a high risk of infection or not

... presumably based on how close you been to someone who has self reported, and also not been tested

- with no test for you or them and whether or not you are symptomatic, and as they don't know - whether or not you have already had it ...

... well - unless you happen to be in some group they have decided can have one of the limited number of tests that is ...

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-no-symptoms-track-and-trace-nhs-app-self-isolate-two-weeks-a9527476.html

 

 

Well, absolutely no indication they will be able to manage the return of p*** ups at a brewery or pub yet ...

 

Anyone want to explain why the notice doesn't automatically trigger a test?

(for BOTH current infection and antibodies)

 

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, hightail said:

Many are but it is a balance.  Early June may be too soon but when will be right?  Harsh as it is to say, we do know who this virus is killing

 

and there has to come a time when we prioritise the futures of the young over the old. 

 

 

 

With proper testing and management that choice shouldn't be necessary

Even with the issues caused by being asymptomatic

 

The issues with the virus are not going to go away - it seems close to certain that this is going to be the new 'norm

We have to either manage it or accept that many people will die - and set up the system to manage that

- and my opinion is that politicians who make the decisions should be LAST on the list for treatments NOT first.

 

 

 

[citizenB]

With Schools usually breaking up for the Summer Holidays in July, I do not see the point of sending youngsters back before September.  Government might just have managed to improve on their safety procedures for staff and youngsters alike. 

 

 

[London1971]

Yup it seems hardly worth all this hassle for the sake of a few weeks. I say this with 2 teenagers at home driving me up the wall!

[brassnecked]

Wait until Serco decide the UK Call Centre for the app is too expensive so offshore it to India.

[tobyjugg2]

which they can do now, let alone when our rights take a nosedive in Jan

[tobyjugg2]

22 minutes ago, citizenB said:

With Schools usually breaking up for the Summer Holidays in July, I do not see the point of sending youngsters back before September.  Government might just have managed to improve on their safety procedures for staff and youngsters alike. 

 

 

 

Yep

seems a choice between sending kids back just long enough to get infected,

or waiting to see if the following are better options

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/uk-covid-19-saliva-test-trialled-5000-key-workers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41415-020-1594-7

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067835v1#disqus_thread

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/08/us/covid-19-at-home-saliva-test/index.html

 

 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

 

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

So, roll playing a politician finding this hard to think through for some reason

 

Which is best

 

* Kids go back to school with sod all to protect them except their youth and resilience, nothing in place to test/identify the illness or treat them,

for just long enough to get infected and spread it through all the homes they go back to for the summer hols

 

* kids break up for summer hols and hopefully get chance to play with friends and socialise over the hols as the new tests prove themselves and are rolled out

.. or stay isolated/ small family/friend clusters if the tests don't.

 

where at least any infections should stay in small clusters.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/nicola-sturgeon-eases-coronavirus-lockdown-rules-in-scotland

[tobyjugg2]

from the horses mouth - rather strange wording BUT:

 

.. It would seem to be an admission that the excess deaths ARE covid deaths, not that there was ever any other reasonable explanation, and as the FT and others have investigated and reported for some time.

 

 

Prof Chris Whitty said:

 

“All-cause mortality has come down at the same time as the Covid deaths have come down

 

and it is now at roughly the rate it is at in an average winter. "

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/21/english-death-rate-now-at-normal-winter-levels-as-coronavirus-deaths-fall

 

 

 

 

 

Back to Priti Awful:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/21/police-spot-checks-enforce-quarantine/

 

"MPs will be asked to support new quarantine measures for all international arrivals which will give police the power to carry out spot checks at homes and impose £1,000 fines."

 

Home Secretary Priti Patel is expected to outline the plans - which will be introduced early next month - at the daily Downing Street briefing later today, a senior Government official confirmed."

 

Of course Steve Baker and the Dunnycan are opposing this on behalf of their still internationally travelling mates.

 

 

Check the wording carefully, its unlikely this would apply to Tory rich mates flying here there and everywhere - so look for other uses

 

 

Wonder if they will be using 'an app' to target those visits?

Edited May 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Real question news here Mrs Monster:
Why implement the 14 day quarantine on people coming into the country now rather than 2 months ago or more?

 

Mrs Monster:
Well its quite clear that while we had low level of infections in the early stages, large numbers of people needed to be brought into the country to start to generate herd immunity.

 

Then of course once our R figure was high enough, the quickly implemented testing and lockdown programs of other countries meant the relatively small number of infected people escaping their programs and coming in made little difference.

 

Now of course, given our outstanding management of our program ensuring we are one of the worst hit in the world, with one of the weakest testing programs anywhere, we certainly don't want these foreigners coming in from their opening countries and breathing their healthiness all over our largely empty streets and us then sending them back infected and having them point the finger at us.

 

Now is unquestionably the time for us to claim this is the right time to do this.

 

 

Real question news here Mrs Monster:

Wont that policy mean that any further deterioration can't easily be blamed on foreigners?

 

Mrs Monster:
Darn - didn't think of that

errr We'll review this every three weeks.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

7 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Seems that the automated message 14 day self lock down instruction will be compulsory - seemingly based on whatever/whether  the app or politicians decide on your being a high risk of infection or not

That can only work if carrying a smartphone with the app is compulsory.  How's that going to work?  What will be denied to those who don't?  GP appointments?  Benefit payments including state pension?  Just how big a stick will they be prepared to use?

[tobyjugg2]

perhaps simply extending the powers given to check on people coming into the country

... to everyone instructed to lock down?

 

With neither paying a darned bit of attention as to whether the compulsory locked down people have had it, do have it,

or are 'naturally largely immune to it - as apparently having been previously infected by a particular prior SARS strain possibly seems to do.

 

 

Children presumably should be exempt as government policy is that they are low enough risk  that can go back to school anyway ....

[hightail]

54 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

perhaps simply extending the powers given to check on people coming into the country

... to everyone instructed to lock down?

But how will they track and trace those who don’t have the app.  

[tobyjugg2]

If you've never had the app installed, hence never had your details logged or received 'the text' then they can't

 

if the app has sent you 'the message', then whatever you do after that, including throwing the phone into a crusher ....

[honeybee13]

So Neil Ferguson was forced to resign from Sage after his girlfriend visited him twice.

 

Demonic Cummings travels from London to Durham, while showing Covid symptoms, to stay with his parents and seems to think that's different?

[tobyjugg2]

Well. it looks it looks like I was wrong and it was and is perfectly OK to go to parents/grandparents homes for them to look after their children/grandchildren

 

but ONLY if you can meet ALL the following criteria:

 

* the visited household contains aged grandparents,

* the visiting household has confirmed COVID symptoms,

* the visited household is more than 200 miles away

* the visitors intend to both enter and stay there

* and most importantly ONLY if you are in a position of political prominence and power

 

 

 

Note

requirements 1-4 can be traded for other criteria

Edited May 23, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

snap HB

 

 

he was allegedly central to creating the lockdown rules

- and they have done NOTHING about it

... at least until caught

 

utter disgrace that Johnson at least and probably the various senior parties presumably including those promoting the rules on TV must have been well aware of this.

Edited May 23, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[unclebulgaria67]

My prediction, is that the Government will stop daily news conferences in the near future. 

 

Once the media spotlight starts to focus more on what has happened over the last few months, there are going to be many difficult questions asked.

 

I am hearing that Government are looking at making changes to get the country back up and running before July. Bus companies have been asked to get services running to 80% of the pre covid-19 timetables as soon as possible. My local bus company have apparently said this is not possible, as many drivers are not able to work due to current health restrictions i.e. shielding.   So if all the public transport companies are feeding this back to Government, my guess is the health restrictions will be relaxed.  

 

 

[honeybee13]

As someone pointed out in the press yesterday, the government is putting the cart before the horse. Get systems in place to protect people, like social distancing measures, testing and tracking and then start opening up the country.

 

Once again, it seems they haven't used the time bought by lockdown to advance things.

[brassnecked]

They are too busy centralising C & C to worry about the margins.