Mutating Corona Virus

[snowdragon]

Seems     everyone is  against  Boris? I myself not keen on him but    do not think it is fair that  some people think it  serves him right he  got the VIRUS!

 

I support no party but really  glad  Labour  did not get in tbh,  what I an  several others people I know  fail to understand is you are allowed to go shopping etc but not  see your family!

 

Surely  shopping  etc  the virus can be passed  as you can be a carrier  and not know or show signs of  it at all

 

 

[honeybee13]

I wouldn't wish the virus on anyone, SD.

 

It does seem at the moment that the PM has learned a lot about Covid and is taking a more cautious stance than some of his cabinet colleagues on lifting the lockdown.

[brassnecked]

No perfect answer, but probably best to limit contact beyond those living in same house, nothing to stop someone dropping supplies to vulnerable parents leave on doorstem and talk through the window at a distance.  oops yes there is the police judging by the Fallowfield, and Rotherham incidents.

[honeybee13]

A British consortium is aiming to make large numbers of gowns for the NHS.

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/consortium-aims-millions-protective-gowns-143435421.html

[hightail]

Does anyone know if the figures on new admissions to hospital with the virus are recorded and published?  Surely we should be seeing some worthwhile results by now if the incubation window we've been given is correct.  The government are giving out a daily deaths figure but that will be the last thing to tell us if this lockdown policy is effective.  From what I've read the percentage of deaths without a known underlying issue has stayed constant at around 5%, roughly 40 a day when the total is around 800.  Makes me wonder if just shielding the vulnerable would be as effective while giving us a chance to save jobs and minimise future economic misery.

[cjcregg]

16 hours ago, snowdragon said:

 

I support no party but really  glad  Labour  did not get in tbh,  what I an  several others people I know  fail to understand is you are allowed to go shopping etc but not  see your family!

 

Surely  shopping  etc  the virus can be passed  as you can be a carrier  and not know or show signs of  it at all

 

 

 

This is painfully simple.

 

Shopping trips for food are inescapably essential regardless of the infection risk, family visits are not.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Anyone thought how it is going to be possible to deliver 1-1 training or any work, where you need to physically be next to someone to complete tasks.

 

 If the country is going to be back at work in offices/factories around the country,  i think we are going to see face masks being worn, if you need to be within 2 meters of others. And this will have to be the case until the scientific advisors to Government believe it is safe for face masks not to be worn.

 

And those staff who have underlying health conditions are going to be at home working ( if this is possible) for quite awhile longer than the current 3 months. For those staff with health conditions who cannot work from home, we are going to be in a difficult position, as companies will not want to pay their wages for too long and Government may not want to step in to continue paying the wages to maintain jobs.

 

 

 

[hightail]

As I see it that’s a fair assessment UB.  The idea was never to stop us all catching the virus but to stop us all catching it at once so as not to overwhelm the NHS.  We appear to have a good idea of who is likely to be badly affected and one very large group within that is the over 70s.  I’m sure I’ve seen somewhere it’s 50%.  Most of those are already paid to stay home so continuing to shield the vulnerable wouldn’t be so costly, certainly wouldn’t compared with the current arrangements.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by hightail

[brassnecked]

And for your perusal, and in view of the hospital in question in the blog is my local general Hospital, I tend to agree with Dr Richard North that the Nightingales should be default destination  for Covid patients wherever possible.  http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87585#disqus_thread

 

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/two-women-die-after-contracting-18121109

[tobyjugg2]

and the Elephant in the room, for which there is more and more evidence:

 

"Chinese doctors in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged in December, say a growing number of cases in which people recover from the virus, but continue to test positive without showing symptoms, is one of their biggest challenges as the country moves into a new phase of its containment battle.

Those patients all tested negative for the virus at some point after recovering, but then tested positive again, some up to 70 days later, the doctors said. Many have done so over 50-60 days."

 

"In South Korea, about 1,000 people have been testing positive for four weeks or more."

 

"In Italy, the first European country ravaged by the pandemic, health officials noticed that coronavirus patients could test positive for the virus for about a month. "

 

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-china-patients-ins/recovered-almost-chinas-early-patients-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUKKCN2240HR

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandrasternlicht/2020/04/16/140-plus-coronavirus-survivors-retest-positive-for-disease-in-south-korea-raising-questions-about-immunity/

 

 

 

Issue or NOT? ... That IS the question.

 

https://bgr.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-update-covid-19-test-result-positive-after-recovery/

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

 

 

[hightail]

19 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Chinese doctors in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged in December, say a growing number of cases in which people recover from the virus, but continue to test positive without showing symptoms, is one of their biggest challenges as the country moves into a new phase of its containment battle.

Those patients all tested negative for the virus at some point after recovering, but then tested positive again, some up to 70 days later, the doctors said. Many have done so over 50-60 days."

Do we know if these were people who were badly affected, moderately affected, symptomless?  By definition they weren’t the worst affected because they obviously survived.

 

All only worthwhile knowing if you intend to test of course which we have spectacularly failed to do.

[tobyjugg2]

19 minutes ago, hightail said:

Do we know if these were people who were badly affected, moderately affected, symptomless?  

By definition they weren’t the worst affected because they obviously survived.

 

 

 

I believe (one line summary) the severity of the effects/symptoms are at least as much a feature of the individuals 'resistance as to any 'volume of virus they inhaled or contain?

 

Although of course the most severe cases are where the virus overwhelms the bodies defences for one reason or another.

 

 

So in effect, the crucial part is that someone with no symptoms and just a few active virus cells in them which the body isn't effectively controlling/eradicating COULD be the source of a fresh pandemic.

 

 

Whatever we have actually done (or not), it seems to me that effective testing and screening would seem to be absolutely crucial and the basis for the next outbreak

... and anyone who thinks there wont be more of these is simply wrong.

 

 

 

I understand your question i think.

ie were they all mild or no symptoms

but I think the more important part is the reports that they tested positive, then they tested negative .. then tested positive again

Edited April 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

The public health experts I've heard all say that systematic testing, contact tracing and isolation are an essential part of the fight to control the virus. And it shouldn't just be people with symptoms because symptomless people can still transmit Covid to others.

 

Changing the subject a bit, Piers Morgan of all people is coming out as a hero of the people for asking tough questions of ministers. He's been quite outspoken in the clips I've seen.

 

This morning, he's saying he believes Simon McDonald told the truth to the Foreign Affairs select committee yesterday, when he said that the UK didn't join the EU PPE ordering scheme because of a political decision. As I do, Piers thinks he was leaned on to issue that ridiculous retraction a few hours later.

[honeybee13]

Hightail, I don't know if this answers any of your questions about mortality rates. From the FT today, Chris Giles is saying the death rate is at least twice what HMG are saying it is.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

[hightail]

4 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

understand your question i think.

ie were they all mild or no symptoms

but I think the more important part is the reports that they tested negative

They did at some point but then presumably tested positive again later.  That points to re-infection doesn’t it?  Or questionable accuracy of tests I suppose.  If it’s a case of symptomless people testing negative then maybe they were at the time of that test.  The symptoms are so variable it takes very little for Coronavirus to be suspected, my daughter had to self isolate according to nhs111 because of a slight cough and is pretty convinced she only had a cold. Would a positive test a couple of weeks later have given the impression of continuing infection when it was actually new?  We can’t know because we’re not testing.

 

 

 

 

[hightail]

2 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Hightail, I don't know if this answers any of your questions about mortality rates. From the FT today, Chris Giles is saying the death rate is at least twice what HMG are saying it is.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab

If the lockdown is making a difference it’s admission rates should be coming down first and given the stated incubation period we surely should be seeing results.

[hightail]

The all toll excess death rate 'because' of coronavirus is not all deaths 'from' coronavirus.  We are running a severely reduced NHS service for a lot of things at the moment.  It's exactly this sort of statistic can be very unhelpful once the media gets hold of it.

 

Of course if we were testing..........

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

30 minutes ago, hightail said:

They did at some point but then presumably tested positive again later.  

 

That points to re-infection doesn’t it?  Or questionable accuracy of tests I suppose. 

 

 

If its re-infection, then given the resilience of the virus which seems to be far beyond that which Johnsons' 'herd immunity' presented

... as seems to be the case, that would be understandable.

 

 

If its the testing thats failing ... despite south korea and China being defined as the leaders in testing (all conspiracy bo*****s aside) ... then it seems to me we have a far bigger problem

.. aka we cant even properly identify the darned thing.

 

 

 

Given either of those, we should be having temperature checks at all mass interaction points with a priority on supermarkets and transport hubs...

with people with a temperature tested and sent home to self-isolate and flagged - privacy invasive as that is ... and I'm a bit of a privacy nut.

 

Would this get the 'no symptoms' infected?

- some (who have a temp but no other symptoms) - yes but no, not al by any meansl,

 

BUT we would still be implementing an isolation protocol far more effective than keeping everyone at home and having no clue who may or may not have been infected.

 

Never thought privacy nut me would say something like that.

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

If we consider

 

"KCDC deputy director Kwon Joon-wook said that so far, there's no indication that patients who retest positive are contagious, even though about 44% of them showed mild symptoms.

 

But he cautioned there is still a lot scientists don't know about the virus, including the issue of naturally acquired immunity.

"Covid-19 is the most challenging pathogen we may have faced in recent decades," Kwon said. "It is a very difficult and challenging enemy."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

 

 

 

 

But I for one would rather have him saying

'All the current evidence AND EXTENSIVE TESTING leads us to believe that patients who retest positive are not contagious'

... along with a clear supporting explanation of why they are retesting positive

 

rather than the actual statements above.

[hightail]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

If its the testing thats failing ... despite south korea and China being defined as the leaders in testing (all conspiracy bo*****s aside) ... then it seems to me we have a far bigger problem

.. aka we cant even properly identify the darned thing.

Do we know how accurate our current testing is?

I'm just trying to get my head around the numbers, the real risks to various sectors of the community and therefore where the govt might choose to go with an exit strategy.  It isn't realistic to lock all those with underlying conditions and over 70s in their homes for the rest of the year - have no idea if that's on the cards or just media speculation.

 

Have heard/read that subsequent waves should be less virulent.  I don't know if that's because of how a virus behaves or because the most vulnerable have already succumbed.

 

[hightail]

And as if by magic this pops up on my screen

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-tests-nhs-075450420.html

[honeybee13]

It isn't realistic to lock all those with underlying conditions and over 70s in their homes for the rest of the year

 

It would have to be properly organised. We have various family members and friends in their 70s who are trying to stay at home but they have to eat. They can't get a delivery slot with a supermarket because of the demand and they aren't on the government's vulnerable list so they don't have priority. They don't have neighbours who will do a complete shop for them so the only option is to go out.

 

If we want to shield the over 70s then if they have people going in to see them every day, the carers have to have the right PPE or we'll get the same situation as has happened in care homes with inadequately protected carers spreading the virus.

[hightail]

6 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

If we want to shield the over 70s then if they have people going in to see them every day, the carers have to have the right PPE or we'll get the same situation as has happened in care homes with inadequately protected carers spreading the virus.

On March 5th I went in to a care home to clear out my aunt's room after she died.  I said then to the staff that the virus would tear through such a place and they looked at me as if I was stupid.  Six weeks later it's all over the media as if it's an unexpected surprise.  It can't be.

[citizenB]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-52329741

 

Coronavirus - Another 24 hours in lockdown.  Some rather interesting photographs how people are coping with the lockdown. 

 

 

[honeybee13]

This is Prof Allyson Pollock writing in the BMJ on how care homes were neglected in Covid planning.

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1465