Mutating Corona Virus

[tobyjugg2]

WHO officially names it:

COVID-19

as the death toll passes 1,000

[tobyjugg2]

Worth quick read (IMO)

 

 

 

"It’s no coincidence that some of the worst viral disease outbreaks in recent years — SARS, MERS, Ebola, Marburg and likely the newly arrived 2019-nCoV virus — originated in bats.

A new University of California, Berkeley, study finds that bats’ fierce immune response to viruses could drive viruses to replicate faster, so that when they jump to mammals with average immune systems, such as humans, the viruses wreak deadly havoc."

 

https://scienceblog.com/514136/coronavirus-outbreak-raises-question-why-are-bat-viruses-so-deadly/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+scienceblogrssfeed+(ScienceBlog.com)

 

 

and

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/10/opinion/coronavirus-china-research.html?te=1&nl=morning-briefing&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200211&section=topNews&campaign_id=51&instance_id=15889&segment_id=21154&user_id=421a1aa0fd9d7488c1cb94836b119dd4&regi_id=80833938tion=topNews

[honeybee13]

I don't pretend to understand all this stuff and exactly how the virus is transmitted, but I've wondered if it's a good idea to keep people somewhere with an air circulation system. The people kept on the cruise ship seem to be transmitting it to each other.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/global-health-experts-question-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-measures

[BazzaS]

I don’t see all the posts on this thread, so don’t know if there is a context in which HB is posting / replying, but it is always a pleasure to respond to HB.

 

The issue the experts raise in that article is that passengers aren’t being offered the opportunity to “disembark and go into quarantine”.

‘Preventing travellers disembarking and travelling without restriction’ has been permissible for a long time : the phrase ‘quarantine’ arises from the 40 days people were quarantined from vessels approaching Venice in the 14th Century.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/historyquarantine.html
 

What you would wish to avoid is “importing new susceptibles”.

 

Cruise lines have established policies for these situations : norovirus outbreaks are a problem for cruise, lines based on similar transmission dynamics (large droplet spread contaminating shared areas), with control measures including enhanced environmental cleaning and restricting passenger cases to their cabins.

 

Crew are a different story, as they live in much higher density cabins. My expectation is that affected crew will be ‘cohorted’ in an “infected crew cabin”.

Air conditioning shouldn’t be an issue, as the virus isn’t spread by ‘aerosol’ (like flu), but by droplet.

Plumbing would be more of a concern (as it was with SARS)

https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2003/pr70/en/
 

until more is known of Covid-2019’s transmission and infect I ITU.

Sampling for those meeting the case definition initially included urine and stools samples. This was never realistically going to happen for the majority of those meeting the case definition (as few will be admitted to hospital, and if seen in A&E and not needing admission they’ll be sent home ASAP)

For those admitted, the stool and urine would have had to be collected & sent in the period before the initial test result came back : negative & there would be no need, positive (and needing to be in hospital)  and they’d be whisked off to one of the specialist units.....

 

Perhaps in recognition of this, the initial test set no longer includes stool and urine.

 

For the confirmed positives (9 so far....) the reference lab advises on ongoing sampling : they say “we’ll tell you what to send and when”, so it isn’t clear if they are asking for stool and / or urine, and if so, when ; either from the specialist units, or the recovered cases (at home).

Edited February 18, 2020 by BazzaS

[honeybee13]

Thank you Bazza, that's very comprehensive.

 

There wasn't any context, I just read the article and wondered again about air con. From what you say, in theory taking a plane is OK as long as you don't come into contact with droplets, am I right?

[BazzaS]

Current case contact tracing looks at environmental contamination, so not “someone sneezes on a bus, person the other end of the bus catches it” (‘aerosol’, like ‘flu), but instead, for a plane :

 

contact for > 15 mins, within a 2m distance.

That is based on the stats (isn’t it always?), and “having to draw a line somewhere”

it doesn’t mean you suddenly start being at risk at 2.00m from 2.01m, nor “can’t catch it at 14 mins 59 seconds”.

That is for the “well”, who would then be asked to self-isolate, and only screened if they develop symptoms.....

Edited February 18, 2020 by BazzaS

[BazzaS]

My advice to a traveller : don’t wear a surgical or FFP2 mask. Wear an FFP3 mask ONLY if you know how to put it on and take it off AND know it fits you correctly (you’ve been “fit tested”), otherwise you are “making yourself feel safer” rather than “making yourself safer”.

 

Much more use is using hand sanitizer and / or washing your hands before touching your mouth, nose, or face, or eating.

To prevent you infecting others : “Catch it, Bin it, Kill it”

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/coronavirus-public-information-campaign-launched-across-the-uk

[tobyjugg2]

6 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

I don't pretend to understand all this stuff and exactly how the virus is transmitted, but I've wondered if it's a good idea to keep people somewhere with an air circulation system. The people kept on the cruise ship seem to be transmitting it to each other.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/global-health-experts-question-cruise-ship-coronavirus-quarantine-measures

 

Yes, it does seem to be that the face masks, low level isolations (hardly quarantine status) and hand sanitising have NOT been very effective over the two weeks and seems more like a breeding nest than an isolation. Glad I wasn't on a cruise.

Of course it could be that all the folk that are infected were infected at the start of the quarantine given that the last figures I saw was that the statistics reported that only 95% of those infected showed symptoms by 12 days.

 

Interesting that the US has had its citizens returned ...

 

Its now clear that some, perhaps most who get infected will never show any significant symptoms and will get over a mild 'cold/chill/hangover' and be none the wiser, so that 95% at 12 days might well be optimistic or pessimistic.

 

The more encouraging side is that it does seem to be sticking just under a 2% mortality rate - probably less if there are far more infections than we are aware of.

We've had a lucky near miss I think - although it isn't over yet.

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

A prof on science blog has been (for the last couple of days) gazzumping an announcement due tomorrow (thurs) and he says it will be epidemic

 

Seems to be a legit prof working in the field.

Edited February 26, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

6 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

A prof on science blog has been (for the last couple of days) gazzumping an announcement due tomorrow (thurs) and he says it will be epidemic

I have thought it inevitable to be honest though still think the media coverage is creating a climate of fear and creating headlines which cause unnecessary worry.

[BazzaS]

It already is epidemic.

perhaps he meant the next stage ... pandemic.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson1/section11.html

 

media existing to sell newspapers / advertising space / looking to get viewer numbers ... who’d have thought it.

 

The media has a responsibility to give decent advice : appropriate concern rather than generating panic.

[tobyjugg2]

13 hours ago, hightail said:

I have thought it inevitable to be honest though still think the media coverage is creating a climate of fear and creating headlines which cause unnecessary worry.

 

Interesting how we all see the news a bit differently

 

I thought the news was playing it as largely under control if rather sensationalist

[hightail]

Do you mean TV news or other media?  I’ve found TV/radio to be reasonably measured but get some headlines come up online which would make you think it’s going to wipe us all out.  

[honeybee13]

Some people are saying that the Russians are trolling the internet to make people panic...

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, hightail said:

Do you mean TV news or other media?  I’ve found TV/radio to be reasonably measured but get some headlines come up online which would make you think it’s going to wipe us all out.  

 

Good point

 

45 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Some people are saying that the Russians are trolling the internet to make people panic...

 

 

Practising and getting ready to support Johnson and Trump again, and any messing with their 'competitors' at VERY small cost is a good investment.

 

When some of our own news outlets spin constant crap  as hightail says, its even easier for Putin.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Well Trump says almost no threat or risk to US and has put Pence in charge

The americans are f** ... in trouble then ..

 

 

Significant that there are (???) claims of infected people who have no known contact with zones or people at risk are starting to appear across the world.

 

If true perhaps does signify on course for a true global pandemic.

I'm still uncertain as to how bad that would be.

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

At the risk of being part of the panic, what we seem to be seeing, even without the sensationalism, seems rather biblical to me

 

The latest virus may be a flash in the pan and 'just another' virus strain that will be in 2022's flu jab ... or not

 

but with floods happing multiple times a year overwhelming barriers that were made to contain what was 'once in a century' extreme events

and once or twice per century droughts going on for years

and once or twice a century massive wildfires happening every year

and the icecaps melting (far faster than commonly reported too)

and the coral dying

and massive algae blooms in the sea and Arctic/Antarctic (ex) ice fields

and mumps and measles returning (definitely through human stupidity and fake news re the jabs)

and antibiotics becoming ineffective (fact not fake news)

[hightail]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

When some of our own news outlets spin constant crap  as hightail says, its even easier for Putin.

Someone on BBC radio this morning referred to it as a 'deadly' virus.  Why the need to add such adjectives?

 

[tobyjugg2]

15 minutes ago, hightail said:

Someone on BBC radio this morning referred to it as a 'deadly' virus.  Why the need to add such adjectives?

 

 

and thats one of the milder references, let alone the daily bulls.. errr mail headlines that videos show people dropping in the streets in wuhan

 

 

although it is deadly aka it kills people - about 2% of those known to be infected.

- possibly nearer 1% if there are far more people infected than is believed - as seems likely

Edited February 27, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[hightail]

19 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

although it is deadly aka it kills people - about 2% of those known to be infected.

- possibly nearer 1% if there are far more people infected than is believed - as seems likely

There's a lot of other things just as 'deadly', the difference being they aren't unusual or newsworthy. 

[tobyjugg2]

yes

SARS, Yellow fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever and TB,

 

perhaps more importantly:

Measles in the unvaccinated - at least similar to cov-19 and often higher

Whooping cough in newborns in developing countries-  about 3.7%

Chicken pox in newborns with unvaccinated mothers catching it around birth can be 30% fatal

 

 

BUT

With Cov the issue is how it may be spreading - and with a potential for killing 1-2% of the worlds population wherever you are.

Edited February 27, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Seems a good overview of the wider situation to me:

 

https://scienceblog.com/514399/coronavirus-response-shows-the-world-may-not-be-ready-for-climate-induced-pandemics/

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I was thinking back to this sad but inspiring story the other day, the village of Eyam in Derbyshire during the plague. Article from the Guardian about whether people now will or would be selfless during a pandemic.

 

• https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/28/coronovirus-test-wellbeing-herd-vaccination

[honeybee13]

And less depressing, Emma Barnett trying her best to get the truth from Theresa Villiers. I feel sorry for Emma, she did her best. Scroll down past the photos at the top to the video.

 

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mp-theresa-villiers-refused-to-say-no-deal-in-bbc-brexit-interview-1-6535892

[honeybee13]

Last one from me. It's not often I agree with George Osborne, but I think he has a point in his tweet earlier today. Boris has got round to convening Cobra at least.

 

'The British Government now needs to go onto a ‘war footing’ with the coronavirus: daily NHS press briefings, regular COBRA meetings chaired by the PM, Ministers on all major media shows. The public is fearful, wants information and needs to know their leaders have got a grip.'