Our next PM

[London1971]

Bearing that in mind , I doubt he would be the one calling an election.  Several Tory MP's would have to vote against their own government to bring about an election, it's hard to see that.  However , natural wastage. It only takes another 3 MP's to die / be involved in a scandal. Probably that will go down to 2 next month.  Pretty soon Tories won't have a majority, even with the DUP.

[tobyjugg2]

With all politicians, what they say often does not happen - sometimes despite their efforts,

trouble with Johnson as with all pathological liars what they say means nothing.

 

All you can be sure of with Johnson is that he will act in his own immediate interests and he WILL betray anyone and everyone the moment it is in his interests to do so.

If a general election is in his best interests - he will call one - else he won't.

 

Just remember the look of horror on his face when the leave win was announced.

 

.. and Yes HB he would.and might be in a Tory/Brexit Party teamed GE

... but he wouldn't need to be elected for the US Ambassador job ....

 

 

[honeybee13]

London1971 - Well, they've got the Brecon byelection to worry about, haven't they? It was Libdem not that long ago. If they lose that, they're down to a majority of 2.

 

Interesting article by Peter Kellner about the viability of a Tory/Brexit Party pact.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/09/tory-pact-brexit-party-farage-general-election-conservatives

 

TJ - The thought of Farage in Washington cosying up to Trump is pretty unappealing, populists together.

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting article HB

I think there are a couple of seats where high profile Brextit party runners could win with no Tory candidate (but perhaps no Tory endorsement)

- one for Farage and a couple for a few others - Sold as a major victory gaining the Brexit Party a handful of MP's while giving the rest to Brexit promising Boris

 

.. not that they could count on him delivering anything he promised unless its in Boris' interests.

He be happy to betray them and just have a few Brexit Mp's as long as he had a majority

 

The big issue there is what would the Tory Party do if he failed to deliver.

Not a lot I other than noise I think.

 

 

 

Can't you just imagine T Potus (tossus not the other US tossus POTUS)

'et tu Boris?

Edited July 9, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

Lib Dems , Greens and Plaid are going to stand down and get behind the Lib Dems as the remain party in Brecon.  Do not underestimate tactical voting.

[honeybee13]

So is this how it's going to go with Boris as PM, which everyone seems to assume will happen? There is a view that our ambassador to the US has effectively been sacked by Boris and it's thought it's on the orders of Trump. It will be interesting to see who they think leaked Sir Kim's emails.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/10/kim-darroch-effectively-sacked-by-johnson-on-the-orders-of-trump

[London1971]

Not sure if I believe that.  Although it's one of those things that seems to fit in with the Zeitgeist.

[honeybee13]

I admit to being a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but you have to wonder what the purpose of leaking the emails was. And if it was to get a Remainer ambassador to leave the post, it's worked. Boris is singing the guy's praises now, but he refused to back him last night.

[London1971]

Boris Flip flops on everything, which is why you can't believe a word he says.

[honeybee13]

I feel sorry for the ambassador. MPs including many Tories have almost unanimously condemned what Boris did, apart from Peter Bone whose support was probably a foregone conclusion. Who'd want to be ambassador to the US now with Boris in charge?

 

To me his reaction shows that Boris can't accept personal responsibility and thinks that people are expendable as long as he's OK. He seems to be loyal only to one person.

[tobyjugg2]

I think its utterly definitive of the current situation in the UK that an apparently highly thought of, credible and competent civil servant is effectively forced into resigning for being honest and doing his job,

when unconscionable self serving liar Johnson not only gets away with blatant lying and NOT doing a good job, he's lined up to be the next PM

 

That the leak of the diplomatic documents was a political machination is pretty much without doubt.

 

That the Ambassador should resign after that leak is right and shows the Ambassadors quality.

That Johnson does not and would not shows Johnsons complete lack of quality.

 

This will no doubt be censored - but Johnson is undoubtedly the bottom dwelling **** even in  the UK's current political cesspool.

Edited July 11, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I'm not sure about the resignation, TJ. The ambassador is clearly a very honourable man, but I currently think the leak of an email - that it's his job to send to London to keep government informed - isn't his fault. Some journos think the leak/hack was politically motivated.

 

I got the impression from the couple of papers I read that Darroch resigned because he felt Boris as PM wouldn't back him.

[hightail]

5 hours ago, honeybee13 said:

To me his reaction shows that Boris can't accept personal responsibility and thinks that people are expendable as long as he's OK. He seems to be loyal only to one person.

Not just you HB.  Every time I think things can't get worse - they do.  Trump wants Farage as UK Ambassador and when he first said it we could laugh at the very thought. Seems utterly ridiculous but I wouldn't put it past Boris.  This leak politically motivated?  Not even a maybe.

[London1971]

Odds on he's more unpopular than TM before Christmas.

[honeybee13]

Some of the people who don't like Boris are talking about a vote of no confidence before he even starts as PM. If there are enough of them, Treeza may feel that she can't recommend him to the queen.

 

I don't know where we go after that if it happens...

[London1971]

You know, and I know, it's just talk and it won't happen.

[honeybee13]

Possibly not, you can hope though.

[London1971]

 I mean it won't happen, at that time. Too early!

 

If Boris keeps his promise to the ERG and leaves without a deal, especially if he tries to freeze parliament out, political fireworks not seen since November 5th, 1605 are going to erupt, and it could be the end of Boris.

 

If he doesn't keep his promise to the ERG and , has another extension, same result, more explosions, and it will be the end of Boris.

 

He's already 2 by elections away from oblivion, I'm sure there are statistics here, but history teaches us, how rapidly they can occur. That would be the end of Boris.

 

A smart , shrewd, intelligent, diplomatic leader might have a 10% chance of surviving 12 months.. but his job as foreign secretary doesn't bode well there.

 

 

[honeybee13]

It looks pretty certain that Boris will win the vote on Tuesday. A lot of people in parliament are doing what they can to stop him proroguing parliament or going for no deal. With Trump and the ERG pulling the strings, Boris is capable of anything.

[London1971]

He's not even in power yet, and has already had one parliamentary defeat.  17 of his own party either rebelled or abstained, he has a working majority of 3 (If Lib Dems win Brecon). It doesn't seem like he will be able to hold on to any more authority than Theresa May had .  It's very difficult indeed to see how a general election can be avoided.

 

As for Brexit, and his 'no deal' promises, if he follows through, he enters into even more dangerous territory for his premiership. It's literally on a wing and a prayer. Watch the headlines change as the pound crashes, and the job losses mount up.

 

 

[honeybee13]

Indeed. 

 

I wonder if Mrs. May will feel able to tell HRH that she thinks Bojo will have the confidence of the House. 

[London1971]

I think it's what happens afterwards that will sink Boris.

[honeybee13]

So we find out who's the new PM tomorrow at 11am if they're on time.

 

The resignations have already started I see, Alan Duncan this morning and Philip Hammond and David Gauke have said they'll resign just before Boris goes to see HRH, assuming Boris has been chosen.

[tobyjugg2]

The really worrying thing is that Johnson might think he needs 'a bit of a war' to raise his popularity, and with Trump clearly wanting to escalate tensions with Iran, and the UK  having clearly shown its willing to do what he tells them (the boarding of the Iranian ship in International waters), he has a route.

 

:-(

[London1971]

Don't think Iraq did too much for Tony Blair's popularity.