So lets look at your one link (I think) apart from some recent news reports from China
My statements are as defined by WHO, the CDC etc etc based on the experiences they had in managing and investigating prior similar outbreaks like MERS and SARS
... gets my vote
Yours references appear based on a reputable source
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
BUT - what actually is it?
I've scanned through two the two latest reports and it certainlt seems to be a mathematical modelling exercise (standard deviation etc) on the current outbreak based on the limited information currently available.
Absolutely a worthy and essential goal that undoubtedly will add to our knowledge of the progress of these sort of outbreaks
It MIGHT even update the processes and procedures already in place some time in the future, or it might simply confirm them.
But is is accurate or anything other at present?
From the LATEST updated report 3 - their own words quoted.
"For our baseline estimates, we assume that two key characteristics of 2019-nCoV are similar to those observed for SARS:
that there is high level of variability in the number of new infections generated by each infectious individual
and that the generation time (the average time between generations of infection) is the same as was estimated for SARS (mean of 8.4 days )"
"we also generate estimates assuming 1000 or 9700 cases by 18th January, the lower and upper bounds of the uncertainty range around our
central estimate of 4000 cases by that date."
(a 10 fold spread in the estimates)
How accurate have these guess-timations you quote here proven to be (in their own words)?
" The uncertainty range is 1,000-9,700, reflecting the many continuing unknowns involved in deriving these estimates. Our central estimate of 4,000 is more than double our past estimates, a result of the increase of the number of cases detected outside mainland China "
So yes I do understand them, and will stick with the CDC/WHO figures thank you
oh and of course a Russian spook selling a book - which I admit to NOT having read
- I did say not Alex Jones
Not really a risk more of an oversight because throughout this claim you have stated you have never held a Cap One Credit Card.....now you find you did...but it helps prove thats theirs cant be valid because you would not have 2 credit agreements with Cap 1 unless one was for a Luma brand.
If your numbers in the screenshot are different to the ones they are quoting in this claim (they have given an account number ?) then yes it would be useful.
This is not about avoiding paying any debt its about proving to the court how DCAs are manufacturing documents to fit their claims.
If we can’t agree on the incubation period, what are you thoughts on “Ro” for 2019-CoV (or R0), which I’d prefer to write as R(subscript-0) if I was able....
a) what would you estimate it to be?
I’ve seen estimates of between 1.4-2.5 (the WHO report factoring in 4th generation cases, from Jan 23rd),
1.4-3.8 from other analyses from the same date, although Fisman from Toronto (who did much of the modelling around SARS) cites a paper noting “the volume of observed exported cases in countries outside China suggested a much larger underlying epidemic than had been reported at that time, and this epidemic may have begun a month prior to the recognition of
the market-associated outbreak, consistent with the reported timing of
viral emergence based on phylogenetic analyses”
Fisman believes there is “a SARS-compatible generation time of 6-10 days” (so, again, not 14 days!), stating that he believes the transmission dynamics are similar to SARS : “ It is the average R0 that determines whether, and how, the disease
can be controlled. By analogy with SARS and MERS, with which nCoV
seems to share many characteristics, the spread of this virus should
Do you agree:
a) “superspreaders may widen the Ro range seen” (there are suggestion one hospitalised case generated 14 secondary cases), and
b) the outbreak can be controlled by measures to bring Ro (targeting both standard spreaders and accepting the challenge of “superspreaders”) down to below 1?
Happy to consider your expert epidemiological opinion based on current knowledge of the statistics currently available (& accepting that the information gets refined over time!)
Ohh, and that still isn’t an incubation period of 14 days, if the generation time is 10 days (dependant on when / if infectivity occurs prior to symptoms, are you suggesting that that interval is 4+ days??)
Thanks Andy, I think it might be a good idea to put your post #94 in the WS2, what could be the possible risks with putting this in, just so that I am prepared for it....
Also I took an image off the internet for a Luma Card which actually shows the first 4 numbers of my Luma card, would this be useful at all?
Ok so the Lloyds account that was on the doccuments is the joint account. I stopped using the joint account when i moved out, I went on to use my Natwest one which I still use to this day. This account was actually closed 07/09/15, the customer services advisor just confirmed on the phone. They do not hold any records for this payment going out. There was various payday loans but not from Payday Express or any of its t/a names. Due to being over 6 years ago they are not obliged to keep all records of closed accounts.
I did not have a computer at this address or a tablet. I don't know how else it could have been set up? Surely if it was from a computer it would have an ip address, or something?
Shocking pictures reveal ‘disgusting’ conditions inside Hermes depot where workers ‘feel like slaves’. Read more at https://www.consumeractiongroup.co.uk/topic/419726-shocking-pictures-reveal-%E2%80%98disgusting%E2%80%99-conditions-inside-hermes-depot-where-workers-%E2%80%98feel-like-slaves%E2%80%99/
Euro Car Parks issued this ticket to the police in Devon and Cornwall. Read more at https://www.consumeractiongroup.co.uk/topic/419522-can-anyone-identify-the-parking-company-which-issued-this-ticket-to-the-police-in-devon-and-cornwall/