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Tawnyowl

The Power Of Nature.Wild Weather.Climate Change.

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On 05/01/2020 at 19:18, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

Australia experienced its hottest and driest year ever in 2019, according to official data by the Bureau of Meterology 

The annual average temperature was 23.32C - which was 1.52C above the long-term average between 1961-1990.

Australia has seen its hottest year in 2019 with the average temperature reaching just above 23C

 

 

He also said this in relation to the fires as their seems to be a lot of rubbish being spread around on relating to temperatures in the country:

We have climate change fanatics mouthing off all the time about man-made global warming, causing the fires, a study which took place in this country revealed that Australia has been just as hot before this lot, according to measurements as far back as 1889 (fact), but then why would anybody mention this after all it conflicts with their fanatical preaching.

 Huge forest fires have been common in the short history of Australia, some of the worst took place in 1938-1939, also in 2009 there were some horrendous fires. a Royal Commission was set up, which strongly recommended, that they should adopt the Aboriginals method, of burning brush to prevent future fires.

Of course like everything else there are always people who, that’s the same people who rabbit on about climate change, did not even want this to take place, so it was not put into practise, despite recent independent officials recommending it should take place. The state has allowed the accumulation of this under growth adding to the likely hood of more intense bushfires.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, buckthorn said:

From Melbourne Australia.

(my nephew family and his brother  lives their, I asked about the fires this is his answer)

 

 This is probably the worst fires I have seen in all my time in Australia.

 

 

interesting that whatever the 'spark' - be it lightning, 50 degree temperatures or even some bright spark arse-onist,

... or all the above and more,

your nephew says:

 

" This is probably the worst fires I have seen in all my time in Australia. "

 

.... because the situation is as reported by the Australian organisations and scientists I quoted as well as organisations across the world,

and attributing even most of the blame; let alone all; to some arsonists - for record breaking dry spells and record breaking temperatures across not just a continent, but across the world, seems somewhat arsonistic in the extreme.

What are they lighting? Nuclear fusion matches?

 

Oh and my brother in law and my nephews and nieces say similar -  the worst fires, temperatures and dry spells they have ever seen.

although they certainly don't attribute the effects simply to some extra arsonists with jiffys

 

.

 


I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Have family in Australia and been there many times.

 

Bush fires are a regular necessary feature of the ecosystem there.  Plants rely on  the fires releasing seeds from pods.  But they are particularly bad this time, as there has been a drought for a very long time.  I have been in a car driving through the countryside and seen bush fires blowing across the road. They tend to be small scale, but at the moment, they cover a huge amount of territory as there is so much dry material to catch fire. No significant rain is forecast until end of February at the earliest. 

 

Hopefully this is just a dry period they are going through and the climate will change again.  They tend to have 10 years of dry conditions, followed by 10 years with more rainfall.  If the climate has permanently changed due man made destruction of ecosystems by clearing land of trees etc, then I could see it becoming difficult to live in many area of the country. 

 

On a tour of Western Australia, the guide who was very knowledgeable about the environment, said that many bad decisions were made decades ago to clear trees and shrubs from land to make use for farming. But the land was now no good for farming, as removing the trees and shrubs made the soil very poor.  So no good for sowing crops or using for grazing animals.  

 

 


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Australian Bureau of Meteorology figures.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/10/maps-show-australias-temperatures-risen-last-100-years-12039524/

 

Sobering, and I know the deniers will go on about how Britain was a tropical rainforest once, but those were natural changes over millions of years, not a couple of hundred.  Nasa have an even more sobering infographic than the above, it's worth Googling.

 

Denying man made climate change is understandable, as the consequences are terrifying, and it's easier to deny it than make the radical changes we need.  However it is real and happening now.

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More mainstream environmental groups have been added to the terrorist database. I find this scary - populists don't seem to believe in global warming and I think they're trying to close down debate.

 

How can Greenpeace et al be the same as neo-nazis?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/17/greenpeace-included-with-neo-nazis-on-uk-counter-terror-list


Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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"teachers and officials around the country reported that they had been told, in briefings by the anti-radicalisation Prevent programme, to look out for people expressing support for XR and Greenpeace."

 

WHATTT!!!

 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prevent-strategy-2011

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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I think it's shocking, TJ.


Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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Johnson and Smogg should be top of the prevent list, sitting on top of the DUP.

 

 

oooops - thats probably got me moved up the list.

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Here's the Nasa Link

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4bSxb5THm4

 

Any denier should spend the next 37 seconds looking at the above video, it is chilling.  

 

Also for any deniers NASA = Experts with all the correct Data.  Some random denial poster on Twitter = Know nothing idiot.

 

 

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Almost every measurement station along the US coastline recorded an acceleration in the pace of sea level rise last year, leading scientists to warn that some of the bleakest predictions for future flooding are increasingly likely.

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Posted (edited)

A decade of record warming to come

 

Recent climate trends look set to continue.

 

A forecast based on more than 40 years of temperature records suggests there is a 75 per cent chance that every year until 2028 will be one of the 10 warmest on record

 

(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi.org/dk84).

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Posted (edited)

and here it is in simple terms

The only two scientific views

 

We are in a deep solar minimum, or we are in a grand minimum

In the last one people were skating and holding fairs and bonfires on the Thames River

 

--- that is where we should be, not breaking high temperature records year after year

Lets just hope the Sun doesn't suddenly flip back to how it was back in the 70's.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/sun-deep-solar-minimum-unusually-quiet-1504795

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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I think if there is a benefit to the pandemic , it’s showing us what can be achieved rapidly in respect to improving the environment .

 

Just as well, the Met Office are ‘stunned’ how one of the wettest UK winters on record had turned into one of the driest springs. Absolute extremes, that simply isn’t normal for this country.


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Afraid you aint seen nothing yet

 

The airline, car and petrol industries woes may well be to the natural worlds advantage, and the lockdown dramatically reducing the mountains of garbage we throw onto beauty spots and into rivers,

 

but it is as yet a tiny drop in the Ocean

 

 

by 2024/25 - without comprehensive, wholesale and long-term change and proactive cleanups, we are very likely to actually be AT the tipping point of major climatic change.

 

The last bump 12,000 years ago ended an epoch.

A few about 90-120,000 years ago drove modern humans to leave Africa, following others who had gone before.

 

Each of those largely occurred over hundreds or even thousands of years although there were clearly some dramatic VERY fast changes.

 

 

Between those about 74,000 years ago climatic changes triggered by a volcanic eruption (Toba) are believed to have devastated populations and driven hominids of all kinds across the world into bottlenecks and almost to extinction in a VERY short time frame. I have no idea how many people there were before, but you can bet that wars over remaining resources killed a lot leaving an estimated 10,000-50,000 across the world.

(Its what messes with identifying the out of africa timing)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Posted (edited)

Climate worst-case scenarios may not go far enough, cloud data shows

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/13/climate-worst-case-scenarios-clouds-scientists-global-heating

 

"In a recent paper in the journal Nature, Palmer explains how the new Hadley Centre model that produced the 5+C figure on climate sensitivity was tested by assessing its accuracy in forecasting short-term weather. This testing technique had exposed flaws in previous models, but in the latest case, the results reinforced the estimates. “The results are not reassuring – they support the estimates,” he wrote. He is calling for other models to be tested in a similar way.

“It’s really important. The message to the government and public is, you have to take this high climate sensitivity seriously. [We] must get emissions down as quickly as we can,” he said.

The IPCC is expected to include the 5+C climate sensitivity figure in its next report on the range of possible outcomes."

 

 

 

so despite the small effect from the world wide lockdowns, we should still expect in the next handful of years effects which just a few years ago was being stated as 'end of the century' effects from human generated climate change.

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Posted (edited)

Not sure about where you are, but here in my garden

 

30 degrees C in the shade in a part that hasnt had sun yet and has a building between the thermometer and the sun until late in the day

 

Peak so far of 42.9 degrees C in the sunshine on the concrete patio in direct sunlight - not quite peak sun yet

 

 

Greenhouse had hit 43.9  this morning about 10:30 when I opened the door and windows and left them open to stop everything from dying - even the spiders were hiding - gets the early sun.

Now 3/4ths in shade of a tree with door and windows open - 35 degrees C

Just under 16C low last night

 

 

 

Edited by tobyjugg2

I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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Wow, that sounds like a Greek island.


Illegitimi non carborundum

 

 

 

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Just checked it in the patio suntrap hotspot in direct sunshine (which is of course 'artificially high) plus in the shade of a hefty pot shrub

 

43.1C in sunlight + 33.6C in the shade of the shrub

 

and thats in the open although a sheltered suntrap zone

 

.... and given we are in an extended solar minimum as detailed higher in the thread ..

 


I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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On 22/05/2020 at 20:52, tobyjugg2 said:

and here it is in simple terms

The only two scientific views

 

We are in a deep solar minimum, or we are in a grand minimum

In the last one people were skating and holding fairs and bonfires on the Thames River

 

--- that is where we should be, not breaking high temperature records year after year

Lets just hope the Sun doesn't suddenly flip back to how it was back in the 70's.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/sun-deep-solar-minimum-unusually-quiet-1504795

 

 

So this should frighten quite considerably

 

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/new-sunspots-herald-increased-solar-activity-cycle-sdo

 

 

Still unclear whether this is a momentary effect or a return to extended higher output and all the ramifications to our climate

... which is already breaking records with only abnormally low Solar energy feeding it.

 

If it is a return to more sunspots and higher output, then we are ALL in VERY serious trouble

 

 

 


I express my honestly held opinions - they are nothing more or less than that.

... Its just doing some due diligence that makes them seem unusual ...

 

Please don't assume what you see here is what I wrote - At least some of my posts HAVE been edited without my knowledge or agreement - or anything showing people they have been amended

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