The Power Of Nature.Wild Weather.Climate Change.

[tobyjugg2]

Just popping this into the mix.

 

The world has seriously underestimated the amount of heat soaked up by our oceans over the past 25 years, researchers say.

 

Their study suggests that the seas have absorbed 60% more than previously thought.

 

They say it means the Earth is more sensitive to fossil fuel emissions than estimated.

 

This could make it much more difficult to keep global warming within safe levels this century.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46046067

 

Yes, and teh warmer the sea is, the less it is able to absorb CO2 as well as driving sea life to extinction including shelled sea life - shells are largely made of calcium CARBONate (CACO3)

[tobyjugg2]

g The there is the problem with the effects of climate change. Half the world will be winners in this lottery

No they wont for anything other than very short term (decades at most) eg Warmer around the north pole as long as you dont mind living on rocks. in a century or two there might be some tundra - but probably very few people at best - anywhere long before then - unless we change what we are doing. We have at best a dozen years to change.

[tobyjugg2]

Site formattings gone to crap and I cant correct it

[tobyjugg2]

"I try and enter honest discourse without resorting to name calling and rancour."

But isn't this the same tobyjugg2 who keeps trying to upset me and others (without succeeding) using offensive remarks on every other post?

Or is there another member with the same name?

 

LOL

Rather rich coming from someone who

self admittedly doesn't even look at others linked evidence,

self admittedly only here to laugh at the threads

and on the only occasion he posts a link (despite claimed discussions with 'real' scientists) links a 'its a worldwide conspiracy' nut

- intelligent in his field on quantum penetration of solids (!!!) undoubtedly - but very blatantly a conspiracy nut regarding climate science

- as king perhaps would have noticed if he's done more than googled a headline.

 

Now you folks could find a handful (I have - long ago) of superficially valid critiques of the established and massively supported science of climate change ...

... superficially valid

 

BUT

They almost exclusively critique the REAL science unjustifiably and then use exactly the ploys they accuse others of in their own 'justifications'

 

example

The critique of the tree ring evidence, which superficially critiqued that tree rings grow differently due to reasons other than co2 or temperature

- which is true as far as it goes

BUT

They not only ignore the simple facts that the legitimate evidence that they are critiquing had documented the potential issues and taken them into account

AND

to add insult to injury, the climate deniers then use inappropriately joined and misquoted parts of evidence to try to prove their case

- exactly what they were criticising.

 

 

The simple facts are that the original tree ring evidence which was used professionally with potential issues detailed and catered for, has turned out to be pretty darned accurate with the modern evidence which uses multiple sources to confirm evidence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record_of_the_past_1000_years

 

 

When either of you two support your opinions with something that doesn't fall apart at first glance - if anything at all - then it might be worth considering.

Until then ....

 

Heres some real science

 

Just two years ago,

in 2016 Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM world wide For First Time in 4 Million Years

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-co2-400-ppm-million-years-20451

 

 

 

yet only two years later - NOW

Carbon Dioxide: September 2018 409 ppm

 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

 

Thats increasing at a truely frightening rate of about 1% rise per annum

 

 

Think its just a peak somewhere?

Think again - use the slider graphic down that page to see just how widespread.

 

 

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png/330px-2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

 

http://www.johnenglander.net/chart-of-420000-year-history-temperature-co2-sea-level/

 

 

 

 

and this one post contains more REAL science and evidence than ALL your pairs posts put together. Let alone all the other links I have put in this thread - and that says it all really.

Want to be treated with some respect - then earn it.

 

 

Still waiting for you to retract those LIES you made about what I stated king....,

[tobyjugg2]

From a physics standpoint, what warms a greenhouse is the same thing that warms the interior of a car on a sunny day.

Yes

 

From a physics standpoint, ... Shorter-wavelength infrared light enters the structure through the glass, and after these invisible but warm rays bounce around, they become longer-wavelength electromagnetic energy and tend to stay inside, getting absorbed by their surroundings.

 

 

Nope - still wrong. Look again. You really are completely missing the basic concept.

It really would be difficult to make it any simpler than those two links I gave.

I could just list them, but that pretty much has been done in the prior links.

 

hint : infra red ('heat') is longer wavelength than visible light and is the result not the primary cause.

Think - what does the glass trap? What goes through? (mostly)

 

Understand this and then cascade that new understanding back through your understanding of climate change.

 

Now do you wan me to tell you about how Striking Glass works or shall we be happy to say it is the work of pixies?

Go for it

[tobyjugg2]

and while we are waiting

 

The positive aspects (for a while) for the UK (ignoring increasing numbers of droughts and flash floods year on year and massively increased wind and cloud marring the average 'warmer' climate )

 

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/02/uk-heatwaves-lasting-twice-as-long-as-50-years-ago-met-office

 

 

Summary of the figures in simple terms (supporting science links higher in the thread)

 

http://www.johnenglander.net/chart-of-420000-year-history-temperature-co2-sea-level/

 

 

and the science backed graphic you really do need to see and try here (give the slider a go):

 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

 

 

 

 

Note that all these compiled figures are the summary of many sources of information and scrupulous scientific examination- not selected bits as used by Human climate change deniers.

[tobyjugg2]

Ok, as words and pictures didnt do it for you

Watch BOTH these videos.

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Some REAL latest information

Climate change could accelerate faster than predicted, new research into world's oceans warns

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-global-warming-ocean-temperature-heat-fossil-fuels-science-research-a8612796.html

 

The world’s oceans have absorbed far more heat than previously estimated, suggesting global warming and climate change could accelerate faster than predicted, according to new research.

 

If you aren't scared - then you darn well should be.

[tobyjugg2]

This is now due an update

 

Given that we are actually entering the solar minimum (temperature) (the approx 11 year cycle of the Suns activity and output)

 

http://www.auroraborealispage.net/solarmax.html

 

 

and despite it showing to be a very significant solar minimum (we should be in a mini ace age at the moment)

 

The last 4 Years have been the hottest on record and the constantly hottest since before humans existed as a species

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperatures/last-year-was-fourth-hottest-on-record-outlook-sizzling-u-n-idUKKCN1PV20H

 

Given that, perhaps everyone should think what IS going to happen in about 2 years time when we are projected to be coming out of the Solar minimum and the suns output starts to increase rather htan decrease

... let alone if its current ongoing long period of lower activity above and beyond the 11 year cycle (an example of which resulted in the little ice age and the Thames freezing solid) starts to increase back up again.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

 

 

 

As already reported here, the sea is warming far more rapidly than was projected, and even more than that updated projection

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/climate/greenland-ice.html?emc=edit_mbe_20190122&nl=morning-briefing-europe&nlid=8083393820190122&te=1

 

 

 

and with the accelerating melting of the ice caps everywhere, including the mountaintop sources of water for Billions

 

Military buildup in Arctic as melting ice reopens northern borders

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/military-buildup-in-arctic-as-melting-ice-reopens-northern-borders

 

 

 

Brexit may be little more than a catastrophe for a small group of Islands

But Human driven climate change is a growing catastrophe for the whole planet and all the people on it.

[tobyjugg2]

Time to add more solar panels to the house to run an ac unit me thinks

 

If your house is less than 50 feet above sea level, a tidal and wind system might be a better investment.

 

But no - I'm not at this stage suggesting there will be a 50 feet rise in sea level any time soon --- yet.

If its less than 5 feet above sea level - I would move - if I could sell it.

 

If the gulf stream continues slowing or even changes completely - it will get quite a bit colder here again despite overall average temps up beyond 1.5 degrees, and 50 degree temps becoming common events around the world. Australia among others is VERY nearly there already.

 

We will be seeing effects that are touted as 'hoping to avoid' 'end of the century' effects within the next 9 years.

(I said 10 years last year)

[tobyjugg2]

I looked at the flood map calculator if there's a 140meter sea level rise I gain a seafront property and it goes up in valve alot

 

As long as you have a small army (and can feed them) to defend it ...

.. and what would then stop them from taking it from you?

 

 

Look at the area East of Peterborough with just a 5 foot rise (and a consistent 5 foot rise in sea swell, not sea level)

[tobyjugg2]

Record breaking temperatures ..

 

 

Yet we are currently at the solar minimum of a long stretch of solar minimums - fact

We should be experiencing abnormally cold weather - yet records on temperatures are being broken - and we are at the cold part of an extended cold cycle

 

We should be skating on canals and rivers but instead tehre are record breaking temperatures across the world.

 

 

https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/06/19/sun-entering-deep-solar-minimum-may-be-the-weakest-cycle-in-200-years/

 

 

Sun entering ‘deep solar minimum’ – ‘May be the weakest cycle in 200 years’

Read the Full Article

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NASA – Next Solar Cycle will be Weakest in 200 Years

September 8, 2019Russ Steele

 

September 5, 2019 by Robert at Ice Age Now

NASA dropped this bombshell announcement in a little-heralded news release coyly entitled “Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration.” In other words, NASA tried to make it sound like good news.

In the release, dated 12 June 2019, NASA described the upcoming decline in solar activity as a window of opportunity for space exploration instead of acknowledging the disastrous consequences such a decline could wreak on civilization.

Here are some direct quotes from the news release:

The Sun’s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. (Emphasis added) The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

Sunspots are regions on the Sun with magnetic fields thousands of times stronger than the Earth’s. Fewer of them at the point of maximum solar activity means fewer dangerous blasts of radiation.

The new research was led by Irina Kitiashvili, a researcher with the Bay Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space missions – the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory – with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National Solar Observatory.

In admitting that solar activity during sunspot-cycle 25 could be the weakest in 200 years, NASA was effectively forecasting a return to Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) conditions. But the release gives no mention of the ferocious cold, no mention of the disastrous crop losses, no mention of the ensuing starvation and famine, no mention of the wars over food, no mention of the powerful earthquakes, no mention of the catastrophic volcanic eruptions during the Dalton Minimum.

NASA Paper is HERE

Some people consider the low solar activity a trigger for other catastrophic events such as the 1811-1812 New Madrid Fault Earth Quakes and 1815 eruption of Mount Tamboura.  As you can see from this chart global cooling produced some strong eruption.

 

 

https://nextgrandminimum.com/2019/09/08/nasa-next-solar-cycle-will-be-weakest-in-200-years/

 

Edited January 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

for those who dispute the NASA et al findings on the sunspot cycle and its effects

Perhaps read this before looking at the latest ones:

https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/solarcycle-primer.html

 

 

Should be straightforward as the reports of the effects expected from the sort of sunspot cycles that are occurring is precisely what those climate science deniers like Farage have used to claim the Earth is entering a period of cooling ...

... and it should be

... but isnt - and we are seeing record breaking temperatures ... which is the point

 

 

Just imagine what will happen if the Sun suddenly flips back into a more 'normal' let alone one of its more high energy periods ...

[tobyjugg2]

Using NASA's conservative analysis to show where we approxamately would be without human driven climate change in 2010

It has accelerated since then:

 

Consider that in 2010 NASA estimated an average 0.7 degrees C increase in global temperature, yet just 10 year later - the NASA conservative estimate is 0.9 degrees

 

 

The second reason that scientists think the current warming is not from natural influences is that, over the past century, scientists from all over the world have been collecting data on natural factors that influence climate—things like changes in the Sun’s brightness, major volcanic eruptions, and cycles such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These observations have failed to show any long-term changes that could fully account for the recent, rapid warming of Earth’s temperature.

Finally, scientists know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that it is released into the air when coal and other fossil fuels burn. Paleoclimate data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have been in the past 800,000 years.

 

 

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/if-earth-has-warmed-and-cooled-throughout-history-what-makes-scientists-think-that-humans-are-causing-global-warming-now/

Edited January 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7844479/Feeling-heat-2019-Australias-hottest-driest-year-record-according-BoM.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

 

Australia experienced its hottest and driest year ever in 2019, according to official data by the Bureau of Meterology (BoM).

The annual average temperature was 23.32C - which was 1.52C above the long-term average between 1961-1990.

The country is also in the midst of one of its worst droughts, with new figures showing the average rainfall for last year was at its lowest ever - at just 277.63 millimetres. 

 

Australia has seen its hottest year in 2019 with the average temperature reaching just above 23C

 

[tobyjugg2]

You repeatedly express (LOL) it, so of course you are.

Doesn't mean those with sense have to jump to your fanciful tune though does it?

 

Want to scientifically (rather than extreme ideologically - if anything) dispute the NASA figures and reasoning, which include the stuff Farage et al used to claim the earth would be cooling ....

Go for it.

I've given you a mail article to start LOL

[tobyjugg2]

9 minutes ago, buckthorn said:

I have not expressed any opinion in relation to Australia.

 

Neither have I. I have shown a mail report

 

But NASA has declared a reasoned and evidenced report on Global warming, and the BoM on the temperatures and effects in Australia.

Do you dispute NASA's (and many other leading scientific bodies) figures on the effects of the sun on the temperature and that the evidence shows we should be in a quite pronounced period of cooling?

Edited January 5, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

LOL

When have you EVER answered a straight question. I'm simply not playing with your attempts to derail the presentation of actual quality evidence from the most distinguished and credible sources..

 

 

So you cant dispute Nasa's (and other leading bodies) findings?

I thought you might try albeit without any reasonable justification or evidence

 

 

So, do you dispute that the Earth is warming, despite the quality, detailed and compelling evidence demonstrating it should be cooling?

Hint - look at the graphs for compelling largely irrefutable evidence as presented by leading scientific bodies ...

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Now some of you may recall I said that there are going to be accelerated effects going into the current solar maximum expected to be around 2023.

 

I'm sticking to that despite the latest NASA projections saying that the upcoming solar maximum is going to be as low or perhaps even lower energetically than the last one - which was already low - with only around half the expected high energy sunspots.

 

God help us if the Sun flips back to its 1950 levels rather than its existing exceptionally low levels, and really does add to the global warming - enhanced by the greenhouse effects of the current levels of Co2, Nox, methane and water vapour.

[tobyjugg2]

 

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-04-current-co2-levels-highest-in-three-million-years

Current Carbon Dioxide Levels Are Their Highest in At Least 3 Million Years

"It seems we're now pushing our home planet beyond any climatic conditions experienced during the entire current geological period, the Quaternary," Willeit said in a statement accompanying the study's publication. "A period that started almost 3 million years ago and saw human civilization beginning only 11,000 years ago. So, the modern climate change we see is big, really big; even by standards of Earth history."

 

 

Current co2 levels :

November 2019:

410.27 ppm

and has hit 415ppm briefly.

 

Global Monthly Mean CO₂

September 2019:	407.65 ppm
September 2018:	404.94 ppm

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

3 hours ago, buckthorn said:

From Melbourne Australia.

(my nephew family and his brother  lives their, I asked about the fires this is his answer)

 

 This is probably the worst fires I have seen in all my time in Australia.

 

 

interesting that whatever the 'spark' - be it lightning, 50 degree temperatures or even some bright spark arse-onist,

... or all the above and more,

your nephew says:

 

" This is probably the worst fires I have seen in all my time in Australia. "

 

.... because the situation is as reported by the Australian organisations and scientists I quoted as well as organisations across the world,

and attributing even most of the blame; let alone all; to some arsonists - for record breaking dry spells and record breaking temperatures across not just a continent, but across the world, seems somewhat arsonistic in the extreme.

What are they lighting? Nuclear fusion matches?

 

Oh and my brother in law and my nephews and nieces say similar -  the worst fires, temperatures and dry spells they have ever seen.

although they certainly don't attribute the effects simply to some extra arsonists with jiffys

 

.

 

[tobyjugg2]

"teachers and officials around the country reported that they had been told, in briefings by the anti-radicalisation Prevent programme, to look out for people expressing support for XR and Greenpeace."

 

WHATTT!!!

 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prevent-strategy-2011

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

 

Johnson and Smogg should be top of the prevent list, sitting on top of the DUP.

 

 

oooops - thats probably got me moved up the list.

Edited January 24, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Almost every measurement station along the US coastline recorded an acceleration in the pace of sea level rise last year, leading scientists to warn that some of the bleakest predictions for future flooding are increasingly likely.

Edited February 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

A decade of record warming to come

 

Recent climate trends look set to continue.

 

A forecast based on more than 40 years of temperature records suggests there is a 75 per cent chance that every year until 2028 will be one of the 10 warmest on record

 

(Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi.org/dk84).

Edited March 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2