Article 50 Discussion

[Jase1982]

In all honesty if our diplomats, or government had any real care or concern for the situation in Yemen, they'd halt the selling of weaponry to the Saudis.

[tobyjugg2]

Just waiting for other half and May is talking - just said in response to Irish hard Border on no deal question

 

She actually spouted the utter Oxymoron:

'We wont be implementing a border, Its the Irish and EU governments will be doing that

WHAT!!!

although it really shouldn't surprise me - they've used it before despite the agreements surrounding the irish border agreements going WAY beyond any trade agreement with the EU.

 

 

... So the EU lets everyone and everything into NI unchecked so all EU goods have no tariffs and any illegal stuff going into the UK is 'not their problem' - their responsibility is just the stuff going into the EU.

 

it IS beyond reason.

We have voted in muppets. (and Murdocks hand must has slipped)

and most of the alternatives (including Corbyn) are probably even worse

 

 

 

What have we got ourselves into !!!!!

and we are stuck with this bunch of utter muppets and the problems they CAUSE whether we Brexit or Not

Talk about despair ...

[tobyjugg2]

and May falsely implies asking for more time is a full renegotiation, and you know how long and how well that went.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/extending-article-50-would-invalidate-brexit-deal-says-may

 

 

Fly on the wall listens gobsmacked:

 

May : hello enemies of Great Britain. I would like to renegotiate the deal

 

EU : What do you offer in exchange?

 

May : Nothing.

 

Eu : Most generous, we will of course match your offer

 

 

May : But I need more time

 

EU : But you have already had 2.5 years. You first said it would be easily done and dusted in just 1 year yet you never came.

 

 

 

May : Ok - but its to go back to the people to give them a say.

I dont want to, but I've been forced into it.

 

EU (brightly) : Ah, democracy, why did you not say you wanted to give this a try! How long do you need?

We thought you had given up on this after your one try didn't go so well for your majority and hopes to become Henrietta the first of England, and restart the suppression wars with Scotland and Ireland.

 

May : Err How about until after the next general election? It seems likely I cant abolish them without those Henry VIII laws.

 

EU : Ahhh - We do understand. You want to - how you say - spread the peace around with your people and parliament.

While we understand you spreading the peace around in the eyes of your own people is your choice, in our eyes for a long time, this is not so good. ça suffit maintenant.

 

 

May : oh bother and boris - all right - can we discuss this for a while. Lets set the next meeting to discuss this for after the next election. I'll book daffy for it.

 

EU. Regrettably None ce impossible. Please do not misunderstand, but our eyes simply could not withstand the taking of your peace this length of time.

 

 

May : oh double bother and benefits : How about 12 months. It will take us 6 months to arrange and at least few months to figure out how to manipulate any result.

 

EU ; C'est Bon. But the vote of your people you ask time for must occur within 6 months of the 12 months we agree too. You will need to agree this in writing.

 

May : I knew you'd try to force unreasonable demands on us. Will aspiring to give someone a say do?

[tobyjugg2]

and May falsely implies asking for more time is a full renegotiation, and you know how long and how well that went.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/extending-article-50-would-invalidate-brexit-deal-says-may

 

 

Fly on the wall listens gobsmacked:

 

May : hello enemies of Great Britain. I would like to renegotiate the deal

 

EU : What do you offer in exchange?

 

May : Nothing.

 

Eu : Most generous, we will of course match your offer

 

 

May : But I need more time

 

EU : But you have already had 2.5 years. You first said it would be easily done and dusted in just 1 year yet you never came.

 

 

 

May : Ok - but its to go back to the people to give them a say.

I dont want to, but I've been forced into it.

 

EU (brightly) : Ah, democracy, why did you not say you wanted to give this a try! How long do you need?

We thought you had given up on this after your one try didn't go so well for your majority and hopes to become Henrietta the first of England, and restart the suppression wars with Scotland and Ireland.

 

May : Err How about until after the next general election? It seems likely I cant abolish them without those Henry VIII laws.

 

EU : Ahhh - We do understand. You want to - how you say - spread the peace around with your people and parliament.

While we understand you spreading the peace around in the eyes of your own people is your choice, in our eyes for a long time, this is not so good. ça suffit maintenant.

 

 

May : oh bother and boris - all right - can we discuss this for a while. Lets set the next meeting to discuss this for after the next election.

I'll book daffy for it. I'll send you a picture so you know who he is.

 

EU. Regrettably None ce impossible. Please do not misunderstand, but our eyes simply could not withstand the taking of your peace this length of time.

 

 

May : oh double bother and benefits : How about 12 months. It will take us 6 months to arrange the referendum and at least a few months to figure out how to manipulate any result.

 

EU : 6 months to arrange - Impressive madame May - We expected you to ask for longer

 

May : Well any longer than 6 months means the longer me and Jesser would have to fight off giving those darned 3 million British ex-pats a vote - and we cant have that - it might result in clear result - and even worse one we dont want.

 

EU : Ca Va. But the vote of your people you ask time for then must occur within 6 months of the 12 months we agree too. You will need to agree this in writing.

 

May : I knew you'd try to force unreasonable demands on us. Will aspiring to give someone a say do?

 

 

 

 

updated

[honeybee13]

And the government have lost the vote and been found in contempt of parliament. They're publishing all the papers tomorrow, it will be interesting to know what it is they don't want MPs and the public to see.

[tobyjugg2]

And the government have lost the vote and been found in contempt of parliament. They're publishing all the papers tomorrow, it will be interesting to know what it is they don't want MPs and the public to see.

 

Too true HB

 

This is worth a read

Sarcasm as a higher form of wit :0

 

It was the worst day of Theresa May's political career, until next week

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-contempt-latest-debate-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-geoffrey-cox-a8667526.html

 

 

There are now plans to:

 

oust may

But depending on who replaces her, different parts of the Conservative party might actually join everyone elses vote of no confidence in the replacement.

.. and No one in their right mind wants Corbyn in either. More polarisation of parliament and the country likely whoever replaces her.

 

 

Restrict the top benchs powers and try to get the decisions back into Parliament (take that Henrietta)

- Parliament itself is very unpleased with Mays power grab and want far more power and involvement for parliament in the decisions.

Seems to be the only way to avoid hard Brexit, but (for some) would also likely result in a new referendum, perhaps after the EU says not interested in you wee weeing about for another 2 years not negotiating

 

Collapse in chaos and stumble into the Brexit next year

which would effectively close of all but hard Brext or Mays deal - why smugs mob is supporting her to some extent, and seems to be Mays backup plan.

 

general election

Tories really dont want that, but replacing may ... might cause some Tories into major rebellion,see above.

 

 

Also risk of Fracturing both the Tory and Labour parties (might be worth it if that could be guaranteed) and almost certainly THAT would result in a new referendum and hopefully some even more significant improvements in government (but the latter not greatly likely)

 

 

 

Most likely?

 

... Good question

 

 

its will only take about 20 more tories for a no confidence in May vote, but I think she would still win it - by an ever shortening margin

 

 

I still think that a new referendum with ALL brits voting (including ex-pats) is likely to be the least damaging way forward, with another close vote either way still being unfinished business (to expand on Farage)

I think there are major forces at work in the remaining (LOL) democratic bits of parliament that are working toward this against the flow of self serving populartistism on both the left and right.

 

 

Its a shame (and a poignant point) that its really only the extremists that are a bit more 'french' in the UK and take their politics seriously.

The UK needs some fire up its backside to make people take personal responsibility the the way the country is run, rather than just pointing the finger and saying 'its their fault' 'I cant do owt'

[tobyjugg2]

and as the BBC's BREXIT debate is cancelled, because

 

Theresa wanted to talk about ONLY Brexit with ONLY fellow Brexiter Jezzy,

.. but Jezzy wanted to talk to ONLY Theresa about anything BUT Brexit in the Brexit debate

They did both agree that no others let alone some darn peoples vote voice should even be there let alone heard

- so the BBC agreed further debate was pointless.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/26/labour-to-block-peoples-vote-taking-part-in-brexit-tv-debate-jeremy-corbyn

 

 

While down the corridor, Unite boss and Jezzy mainstay mcCluckski presses Jezzies 'NO way should the plebs get a vote' stance

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/05/unite-leader-warns-labour-against-backing-second-eu-referendum

 

 

As the effect of Leaves campaign cheating (even without the lies) becomes clearer

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vote-leave-referendum-overspending-high-court-brexit-legal-challenge-void-oxford-professor-a8668771.html

 

 

 

 

 

So as the 'return power to the UK parliament and people' Government

* Solidly Refuses a democratic vote to the people

* and is the first UK government EVER to be found in contempt of UK parliament

* refuses to act against vote illegality

 

So why all the fuss about not releasing the legal advice?

Missed it?

Most people thought the 'backstop' was there until some entirely un-negotiated future UK-EU deal made the border issue a non issue ...

But the real issue always was the UK gaining more time to do whatever it wanted to do before saying 'up yours EU never agreed that - do your worst har har'

.. BUT the EU expected that and the agreement is in international law not just some aspirations and the UK cannot simply walk away with the border issue unresolved (which also de-facto includes some rights and regulations level playing field issues).

 

... which has really pigged off the hard right Brexiters who want to dump regs and rights and turn the UK into a fracked, poisoned tax haven (they of course would move abroad and just have a PO box here for tax purposes)

 

 

Note

DUP has now confirmed it will not vote against May in confidence vote, particularly given the advice that the UK can cancel Brexit unilaterally - at least up until March.

[tobyjugg2]

clarification

 

(which also de-facto includes some workers/peoples rights and environmental regulations level playing field issues).

[tobyjugg2]

Most likely next step?

 

Who can say for sure? but most likely seems to be:

 

Hillary Bens amendment gets passed,

May avoids a vote on her deal and gets more time

 

BUT - The clock is still ticks away toward a default Hard Brexit in a few months despite any amendment saying no deal not an option.

The amendment does not impact the EU's stance and processes any more than the UK raising a motion saying 'illegal interference in elections is bad form Peter, bad form' ....

 

 

'See the EU has kicked us out while we still squabble, err discuss this, and they do it based solely on us firmly setting the date for our exit

Told you they were unreasonable says May and Faux ...

 

Yippee says Corbyn and Smug

[honeybee13]

It's hard to read, isn't it? I guess we have to see what transpires on Tuesday.

 

There's an article in the Guardian today about contingency planning by Kent county council. They seem to be thinking about it harder than HMG.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/06/no-deal-brexit-could-cause-chaos-across-kent-warns-council?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlVS19XZWVrZGF5cy0xODEyMDc%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&CMP=GTUK_email

[tobyjugg2]

It's hard to read, isn't it? I guess we have to see what transpires on Tuesday.

 

There's an article in the Guardian today about contingency planning by Kent county council. They seem to be thinking about it harder than HMG.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/06/no-deal-brexit-could-cause-chaos-across-kent-warns-council?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlVS19XZWVrZGF5cy0xODEyMDc%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&CMP=GTUK_email

 

When HMG is actually implementing changes to turn Motorways into lorry parks ...

It simply shows that the UK has and is TOTALLY unprepared for the hard brexit so many are pressing for.

 

Just tighten your belts some more for the next 50 years, I'll have to reduce your wages and my Taxes you know - says smug ...

 

Dont know what you are whining about, says Lawson - from his villa in France ...

 

Farage is sweating now his US ambassador to the EU job has drifted away ...

 

 

Its difficult to accept that HMG and the UK is so utterly and totally unprepared (nothing in place) for what they are touting as a main and still very likely option (hard Brexit) or even the results of the May option post transition.

 

 

Its unbelievable that Corbynistas are still trying to sell the Labour cake and eat it just vote for us spin that even UKIP have dropped. Cant catch the mugs twice ... can we?

 

 

 

The options SOLD in the referendum were, in order of loudness proclaimed:

 

* Cake and eat it Brexit (We get everything, pay nowt, done and dusted in a couple of months tops - just as Labour and others are spinning to this day (without actually saying anything of course))

 

* Hard Brexit (we might lose a very few benefits, but everyone is queuing up to trade on OUR terms)

 

* Remain with what we've got (but we will work hard to protect our bankers)

 

 

The REALITIES are:

 

* Hard Brexit,

Nothing in place, No real trade deal, Borders closed except where the EU want them, replace being on the EU decision table with doing what the USA corporations say.

 

* Mays 'Deal'

Nothing really - we Brexit and negotiate - and how has that gone so far

 

* Some other deal Like Norway++, Labour++, Canada++, Something pulled out of my backside++

None of which are on the table, ever will be on the table, and dont address core issues like immigration (lol) or the Irish border among others.

What they really mean is: The bits from Norway we like, without the bits we dont like, with some extra bits at less cost

- aka cake and eat it

simply NOT going to happen.

Its quite clear that none of those are realities, even the last one is watered down now. Our influence has reduced somewhat even if we stay,

Remain

New referendum or simply revoke Brexit. Not officially on the table as such.

 

WHICH OF THOSE IS EVEN IN A SMALL WAY AS IT WAS SOLD AND VOTED FOR AT THE REFERENDUM?

 

 

Seems to me we are prepared for none of these. Even Mays 'deal' isnt a deal and just kicks everything into the long grass with even fewer options when we eventually pick it up again at the next last moment, STILL totally unprepared for it.

 

 

Immigration was always a minor issue that could be addressed inside the EU

(aka reduce non EU immigration and send non workering EU back where they came from as was allowed but not done.

 

Fishing has not been addressed anyway, and the benefits at least balanced the costs

 

Sovereignty - rather rich from Henry VIII, contempt of parliament May. and I'd rather be at the EU's decision table than receiving instructions from Trump corporation.

 

Trade - The EU is the largest trade block in the World. end of.

[tobyjugg2]

Funny thing is, I'd be more prepared to risk a punt on Corbyn if we were firmly within the EU

 

LOL

 

Interesting

http://lustigletter.blogspot.com/2018/12/is-this-how-may-will-exit-brexit.html

[honeybee13]

It looks as if Plan B could be off the table, Norway don't want us in their club.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

[tobyjugg2]

It looks as if Plan B could be off the table, Norway don't want us in their club.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

 

Cant believe the garbage/fantasies/wishful thinking that Boles and Kinnock seem to trying to spin there as something even approaching reality. Seemingly just because a few of their mates thinks it might be a good idea.

Are they really THAT divorced from reality? (Mind you senior Labour are spinning fantasy Labour will magically pull cake out of a hat to eat garbage too)

 

Even if Norway (no plus's) were possible (it isnt and in reality hasn't been for over a year at least) it would still be far worse than our current membership benefits.

 

The EU has said from the start, there is no picking and choosing, and that even some existing arrangements would NOT be available now - to anyone else (like ours for example).

 

.. and stable clubs certainly dont want some johnson come lately upsetting the apple cart and vetoing what all the others agree..

 

 

Reality is we are even dependent on other countries good will/self interest to get the deals the EU has with them, and we currently enjoy as part of the EU). We have NO entitlement to them.

Dont forget that under Mays 'deal' we would be negotiating just to be able to trade with the EU, if we ever really start, NOT to get all of the EU's trade deals with others

 

 

 

The three options simply are

* Hard Brexit - and still have to sort out the Irish border issue in some way (good luck with that)

 

* Hard Brexit - with a delay/transition and hope something is negotiated within two years (which WILL be inferior to what we have and WILL NOT meet brexiters requirements) - when 2.5 years has utterly failed,

or be stuck with no deal + the Irish border safety net.

 

* Remain with existing deal

- at least while we sort our selves out and put in place processes and systems which would at least make possible a none chaotic Brexit should we get here again - which will take a decade at least and is blatantly missing at the moment.

 

 

 

 

Note on the Irish border 'software' systems approach

if the UK is so convinced they can easily put a system in place that would make a hard border unnecessary, why isnt it in place NOW completely transparently in the Irish sea fully under the control of the UK and NI government? Bring back control? LOL

.. because the claim is utter carp.

 

 

We should also not drift far away from the simple facts

NONE of the brexits are as sold in the referendum - especially the hard brexits. NONE delivery on the spin.

Cake and eat it was NEVER available, as stated at the start by the EU, and never will be.

 

The British public were quite simple sold a pack of lies, masquerading as plans,

now excused as 'aspirations'

 

... and its astonishing how many people still dont really see that, and still quote the lies which they were sold.

 

 

The ONLY way forward is a referendum, not some half-harsed election that would solve absolutely NOTHING except Corbyns (or some Tories) self serving power grab aspirations,

and would almost certainly make things worse for the British public and the UK.

[honeybee13]

ECJ says that the UK can cancel Article 50 unilaterally.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46481643

[determindator]

We never embraced the idea of having the euro as our currency, for me it answers the question deep routed in the echelons of Government and society. It was getting close though virtually a pound equal to a euro, that's when you know the system is getting ready to make a transition from pound to euro.

[honeybee13]

There are rumours coming through that tomorrow's vote has been pulled.

[determindator]

Wonder if it's been worked out it would've definitely been defeated after trying to persuade to favour deal, and wonder if they're gonna be brave enough to return with an improved exit deal. There's rioting in France now not the best time.

[determindator]

I would suggest taking a posse of delegates from all parties to thrash out a deal rather than them all bickering and blaming, it's easy to criticise and blame someone for not delivering the deal, not so easy to negotiate.

 

It needs to be remembered this is a decision for the people to be made a cross party best deal.

[tobyjugg2]

I think its to avoid the (almost certain to be passed) amendment that would make no deal brexit impossible.

 

(No deal as the ONLY other option would make her deal more attractive - and of course, the hard Brexiters still see hard brexit as the likely end outcome of Mays deal - they expect to make the irish border safety net fail whatever the international cost to the UK)

[tobyjugg2]

Irs just kick it into the long grass for a while while a few 'aspiration' words are inserted into the future aspirations 'agreement' then.

 

Ramp up the tick tock pressure to a no deal

[tobyjugg2]

I think its to avoid the (almost certain to be passed) amendment that would make no deal brexit impossible.

 

(No deal as the ONLY other option would make her deal more attractive - and of course, the hard Brexiters still see hard brexit as the likely end outcome of Mays deal - they expect to make the irish border safety net fail whatever the international cost to the UK)

 

Interesting to hear the public 'opinions' and how many 'ordinary' brexiters who say they would still probably vote brexit say that mays deal 'is worse than remaining'

 

They still seem to think that there is a cake and eat it brexit that will be better than remaining on our existing deal.

 

Really strange thing is that the deal we already have and had is the 'cake and eat it' deal !! that everyone else would LOVE to be offered

- and once we 'brexit' next year, (transition or not) that will never be there again. Brexit options will always be there.

 

May is working hard to ensure ALL possible options are pushed out of reach, to leave only her choice or hard brexit

 

 

Little note on Mays Withdrawal from the vote:

* Shows incredible contempt for parliament and the people (leaving it to the last second then just edicting it wont be heard

 

* Withdrawn almost certainly because of the expected success of Bens cross party 'no deal not an option' amendment which would rip asunder the Conservative party where the 80 or so hard Brexiters and the DUP would support a no confidence vote in May and any replacement would almost certainly completely polarise (split) the Conservative party along its fracture lines.

(the DUP were and are only people opposed to the good friday agreement - Hard Brexit gives them 2 birds for one stone)

As usual - its all about the Tory party NOT the people and Nation.

[honeybee13]

I think you're right, it's about the party and May's political aspirations.

 

I can't see that negotiating for a bit longer is going to get many concessions, going by what Brussels is saying. And the pundits don't see enough MPs changing their minds or being bullied into to it, to make any difference to the vote.

 

It seems the latest this can happen is 21st January, I suppose then she'll say it's too late to have another referndum. But I read somewhere that Greece managed to organise one in a matter of weeks.

 

All she seems to have achieved is to unite almost everyone against her deal.

[honeybee13]

The Lib Dems have joined up with the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens to ask Corbyn to join in a vote of no confidence [VONC].

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/11/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-may-eu-juncker-tells-may-deal-could-be-clarified-but-no-room-whatsoever-for-renegotiation-politics-live

[tobyjugg2]

The Lib Dems have joined up with the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens to ask Corbyn to join in a vote of no confidence [VONC].

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/11/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-may-eu-juncker-tells-may-deal-could-be-clarified-but-no-room-whatsoever-for-renegotiation-politics-live

 

 

But corbyn doesn't want that

Worse than May just interested in the Conservative parties interests

Corbyn is only interested in his own agendas

 

I'm utterly convinced that Corbyn gaining power in the current situation is at least in the top 3 of the last things we need

 

(and that IS from a lifelong union member and labour voter)