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I wonder

If she loses the supreme court battle will she then call a general election based on In or Out - vote for us and we will get the best deal possible

 

I think that she is losing a lot of the impetus that was in the country

 

Oh well we will have to wait and see

The problem is the massive splits across the country.

Its quite possible that the Tories would win a general election, but I think the likelyhood that there would be a Libdem upsurge along with the risk of a major UKip upsurge is too great a risk for them.

They are quite happy with a useless labour as the opposition rather than revitalised LibDem (clear remain agenda) and UKIP (clear hard Brexit agenda) - both being far more 'open' in their EU agendas than the Tories or |Labour

I would be glad to go to the country for a clear mandate were it me

- but there are clearly other agendas here than the 'peoples voice' constantly touted by all and sundry. And anyway, the peoples voice is actually shouting so many different things we could turn the UK back into 2 or 3 dozen pre-Roman kingdoms.

 

 

I see the £ is recovering a little of what was lost against the $ and more of the euro, might just help to dampen inflationary pressures although I think it says more about those currencies than it really does about ours.

So do I.

The pound has approached its limit until article 50 is triggered as I confidently reported higher in the thread. The Eu is now under increased risk which is showing as pressure on the euro, although not as much as the reports on the Italian referendum would have you think.

It seems clear to me the Italian public mainly didn't want more power concentrated in the hands of an elite few - as May is also finding.

 

 

I can see an early general election, because i can't see anything but problems ahead. There are too many people involved in getting any Brexit deal signed off by March 2019. We tend to focus on the UK, but there are 27 other EU countries that will have to agree to any UK deal and also the EU Parliament.

The issue seems clear to me: May doesn't want to simply exit - which is all there really is any sort of mandate for

So they are what they intend to do - fail everyone Remainers and Brexiters

 

 

It may end up with a Brexit which is outside EU customs area and UK paying into the EU for access for some things such as Financial Services.

 

But there will be a lot of people very unhappy with this and i am not sure a general election would resolve it. Many Tory MP's would probably vote against it.

Absolutely - as I said - the UK taxpayers paying for international fimanciers protected access to the EU markets, while the financiers make millions in pay and bonuses, their companies make Billions in profit and neither they or their companies pay damn all tax in the UK.

Truly diabolical.

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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and while we are waiting for the by-election results and all hoping for a Christmas surprise ...

 

 

"Two former cabinet ministers, John Whittingdale and Michael Gove, suggested to the CBI business group on Wednesday that companies should start drawing up a list of regulations they want to see abolished or reformed."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/07/tory-mps-suggest-firms-draw-up-list-for-bonfire-of-eu-laws-after-brexit

 

"Gove highlighted a government-commissioned report by Marc Bolland, the former chief executive of Marks & Spencer, which ran through a list of EU employment protections it would like to see withdrawn or changed

including

pregnant worker proposals,

the agency workers directive,

the acquired rights directive

and the working time directive.

 

I'm sure its just tittle tattle reporting that a certain BHM abuser mumbled something about:

'Although some careful wording in the repeal to prevent these damned EU workers rights being brought into UK law is a good step forward, how about repealing those damn pension protection laws that cost me so much to bypass' let alone putting the knighthood I bought at risk.

 

 

 

 

Andy Burnham actually making some sense on migration

 

"I want to set out two principal reasons why there is a legitimate left-wing case for reform. First, in an era of increasing globalisation, free movement has arguably been providing greater benefit to large companies than it has to the most deprived communities.

There is nothing socialist about a system of open borders that allows multinationals to treat people as commodities and to move them around Europe to drive down labour costs and create a race to the bottom."

 

 

but then does seems to blow it afterwards (depending on the interpretation):

"Secondly, there is a strong case for saying that the immigration system that has developed over time in this country is inherently discriminatory—it does not treat all migrants equally. Instead, it accords a preferential status to migrants from our nearest neighbours in the context of a policy that seeks to cap numbers. That, therefore, discriminates against those non-EU migrants who seek to come here and who have families here."

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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Toby

it is a fact that in school age children there can be a 25% development differential between the most privileged and the most deprived however in parts of London this has almost been eradicated due to a lot of time and effort being put into it.

 

I really do wonder how much of that differential has been eroded because of failing the more able rather than improving the lot of the less able.

Quite a lot it seems to me.

 

 

 

 

 

Back to the by-elections

and Labour well on course for wipe out at next general election

 

"Vernon Coaker, the former shadow cabinet minister and MP for Gedling, who helped run Labour’s campaign in Sleaford and North Hykeham, said the party’s message on the EU was not getting through to voters yet."

- Clueless (at best) twonk - the Labour 'message' is being received load and clear.

 

 

Sleaford and North Hykeham byelection results

 

 

Caroline Johnson (Cons) 17,570 (53.51%, -2.68%)

Victoria Ayling (Ukip) 4,426 (13.48%, -2.21%)

Ross Pepper (Lib Dem) 3,606 (10.98%, +5.33%)

Jim Clarke (Lab) 3,363 (10.24%, -7.02%)

Marianne Overton (Lincs Ind) 2,892 (8.81%, +3.59%)

Sarah Stock (Ind) 462 (1.41%)

The Iconic Arty-Pole (Loony) 200 (0.61%)

Paul Coyne (ND) 186 (0.57%)

Mark Suffield (ND) 74 (0.23%)

David Bishop (BP Elvis) 55 (0.17%)

 

Comfortable win for the Tories though in one of the safest Tory areas there is. A Tory loss, or even a close call would have been a MAJOR upset, far more than Richmond.

- all on a very poor turnout (half) compared to last year though ...

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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Good article which sums up my view

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/11/brexit-will-suit-europe-wont-suit-us-fast-show

 

It is an interesting statistic that by the time of any Brexit, that about 2 million older voters will have died and be replaced by 2 million teenage voters. Given that teenagers are apparently more pro EU than older voters, this could mean there is a pro EU majority within the next few years. Now you realise why the government don't want a second referendum on Brexit.

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I received a certain amount of abuse on a Facebook page when I posted that there was a correlation between achieving a degree and voting remain. Equally there was a correlation between age and voting to leave i.e older people were more likely to vote leave. When you consider that almost 50% of school leavers now go onto HE at some point you can see the intercorrelation. Of course it does not mean that only clever people voted remain and less intelligent voted leave- for older people , the concept of getting a degree was alien , even to many of the most advantaged

https://electionsetc.com/category/eu-referendum/

Any opinion I give is from personal experience .

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I think we should follow Nigel Farages lead:

 

The Ukip leader speaks to the Mirror’s Associate Editor Kevin Maguire and warns that a '52-48 result would be unfinished business'

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017

 

 

Nigel Farage: Narrow Remain win may lead to second referendum

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681

 

 

Remember that time Nigel Farage said 52-48 votes should lead to second referendum?

 

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/24/remember-that-time-nigel-farage-said-52-48-votes-should-lead-to-second-referendum-5963900/

 

 

Farage warns PM over ‘unfinished business’ if xxxxxx narrowly wins ‘unfair’ EU referendum

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/671003/second-EU-referendum-Nigel-Farage-David-Cameron-unfinished-business-Brexit

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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I am afraid I must hang my head in shame after reading the Daily Fail yesterday - my only excuse is that I didn't buy it.

 

I found the language used to be extremely emotive that gave the impression that the whole world wanted to get into the UK and that all immigrants (particularly those currently in France) are wild and dangerous. It also claimed that all 'child' refugees were mid 20's .

 

Another article was saying that the UK economy was booming- no mention of all the official statistics that say this is only temporary

 

To be honest I don't think this paper would have been out of place in 1920's Germany

 

I did have one almost cheering bit of news where a leave voter basically admitted she felt lied to - that the claims made by Boris and Farage, but Boris in particular seemed very plausible at the time but she now is reading that many of them were lies, the question asked was, why didn't the remain camp destroy those arguments at the time.

 

I suppose it shows just how liberal I am , I do still speak to people who voted leave , in fact I am on very good terms with some of them - and a very few are on my xmas card list

Any opinion I give is from personal experience .

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I am afraid I must hang my head in shame after reading the Daily Fail yesterday - my only excuse is that I didn't buy it.

 

Then for mail fans

 

But he (Farage) said David Cameron needs to win by two thirds to end the issue

Mr Farage said unless David Cameron's Remain campaign wins by a two thirds margin, there would be 'unfinished business'.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3594364/Nigel-Farage-warns-demand-SECOND-referendum-EU-Leave-campaign-loses-narrow-margin.html

 

I can agree with the sentiment that it should be a 2/3rds margin to generate change, and that very small margins are certainly no mandate for change.

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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I voted leave but only because I based my decision entirely on a bus slogan and chose to misinterpret that slogan too, regarding the 350m to the NHS every week.

 

Therefore ALL leave voters were mislead. I demand another referendum.

 

Also, we should only allow newspapers that share our opinions to be published. To promote diversity.

CAG has helped me so much since I joined. Based on what I have learnt from others on here and my own experiences, I try to chip in and help others from time to time. I am not an expert and give my opinion only. Always check with the more experienced CAG members before making important decisions.

:-)

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Mrhat

If you did, more food you. By the way freedom of extensions is only a qualified right and imo the Daily wail is teaching a very fine line between reporting news and inciting anti islamic violence.

Pardon me for expecting an option

 

As for the leave voter, did i say it applied to all leave voters? No, but i think we all know it applied to some,how many who knows.

Edited by Andyorch
Removed reference to Holocaust

Any opinion I give is from personal experience .

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I voted leave but only because I based my decision entirely on a bus slogan and chose to misinterpret that slogan too, regarding the 350m to the NHS every week.

 

Therefore ALL leave voters were mislead. I demand another referendum.

 

Absolutely, and dont forget to include all those who didn't choose to misinterprete the Bus and Brexit misrepresentations - so it really was "ALL leave voters were mislead" whether they chose to be mislead or not.

 

AND as already clearly shown - Farage hisself firmly believes and has clearly declared 52% - 48% (or a close decision in other quotes) is "unfinished business" which needs "a second referendum".

 

So however tongue between cheeks or not - what you wrote here is literally correct

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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Peter Dowd, the Labour MP, starts by wishing everyone happy Christmas. In the light of Boris Johnson’s display of foot in mouth disease, does May now accept that putting FO against his name should have been an instruction, not a job offer?

Theresa May also wishes everyone a happy Christmas. She will be back on Monday for a statement about the EU council meeting. Johnson is doing an “absolutely excellent job”. He is an FFS - a fine foreign secretary.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/14/pmqs-may-corbyn-brexit-david-davis-and-jeremy-corbyn-prepare-for-last-pmqs-of-2016-politics-live

 

 

 

They do read these forums

Search here is rubbish else I'd link the post

 

:fish:

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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Here you go in black and white

"Davis made clear that the UK would seek a trade deal at the same time as negotiations over exiting under article 50, but that preventing non-tariff barriers to services was probably more important than stopping the imposition of tariffs to goods."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/14/brexit-plan-will-not-be-published-until-february-says-davis

 

So tax payers paying money to the EU (in some way) for the City financial services sector to maintain access, while everyone else pays more to import and export goods. The 'City' will undoubtedly continue to pay sod all taxes in the UK as already linked in this thread, while suppressing 'proper' UK banks and building societies that serve UK customers..

There was NO doubt this was on the cards.

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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from The Waugh Zone report on the EU meeting May scuttled away from without NT relevant comment

 

" the Czech foreign minister confirmed that EU negotiator Michel Barnier was demanding a £50bn ‘exit fee’ for the UK. The FT reports that France is urging the bloc to curb the City’s role as a euro clearing house"

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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I don't think Brexit will get anywhere near off the ground.

 

David Davis says that they are only starting to look at all of the various issues and don't really have any idea of a plan. It is a very complicated process to engage in and may take 10 years, according to several very well informed people, who have commented over recent weeks.

 

The EU commission will be in charge of the process and have huge resources which they will use to make sure that the UK is not allowed to leave on decent terms. They cannot afford to see any country leave the EU and prosper afterwards. The UK will be dealt a very poor deal and there will be many powerful business interests in the UK who will pressure government to call off Brexit. UK government given the level of national debt, cannot afford to do anything which wrecks the economy.

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I don't think Brexit will get anywhere near off the ground.

 

David Davis says that they are only starting to look at all of the various issues and don't really have any idea of a plan. It is a very complicated process to engage in and may take 10 years, according to several very well informed people, who have commented over recent weeks.

 

The EU commission will be in charge of the process and have huge resources which they will use to make sure that the UK is not allowed to leave on decent terms. They cannot afford to see any country leave the EU and prosper afterwards. The UK will be dealt a very poor deal and there will be many powerful business interests in the UK who will pressure government to call off Brexit. UK government given the level of national debt, cannot afford to do anything which wrecks the economy.

 

perhaps, but as actively aborting the Brexit process would pretty much necessitate a general election, and that would also probably not solve really anything

 

It would seem Brexit under WTO rules is the best option we have.

The only other options are:

 

Hard Brexit for everyone except Financiers and selected 'captians of industry' - who will have special visas and access paid for by the British taxpayers

 

Go to the nation (a new not repeat referendum) will options that will include remain in the EU - and hope for one of them to get an overwhelming majority - fat chance

 

 

May knows that the EU has ALL the cards and is playing for time hoping other EU members will start exit proceedings.

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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OD

As far as I know, we are and have been a member of the WTO

We are a member in our own right as well as being part of the EU

 

I see the danger being, May triggers article 50, in 2 years time the EU refuses to extend the process , we are dumped. The only possible saving grace would be if the damage to the eurozone would be so great as to persuade the rest to let us extend negotiations.

 

March 2019 is getting close to the end of the parliamentary cycle and should it all go south, May will be consigned to dustbin of history. That is if she makes it that long

Any opinion I give is from personal experience .

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Are we not forgetting the WTO has something like 160 members and they all, just like the EU member states have to agree for the UK to become a member of that organisation. And even with the WTO we will still have to pay into that organisations and tariffs at 15%

 

As fletch informs - most of that is already dealt with

.. and the tariffs apply both ways.

 

Its almost certain that the car industry will likely get a quick reciprocal Tariff free or tariff matched deal.

 

 

The big issue is the UK taxpayer paying the EU for preferential access (and movement) for financiers who pay sod all tax into the UK or EU.

Would that be an acceptable compromise for you Brexiters? or NOT?

'Interim deals' are of course also just paying for preferential treatment for financiers by the back door.

 

 

... otherwise hard Brexit WTO rules after 2 years past trigger while deals are negotiated is the only option to a fresh referendum if negotiations fail or take to long if there is a clear majority voting for that.

 

There will then almost certainly be a fresh Scottish referendum, and if that is successful - possible a Welsh one - then who knows.

At the least very federalisation of the UK would seem to be a significant likely/possible outcome.

 

 

I think the reality is really starting to come home to many people who thought this was going to be the EU, India, Australia, the US etc running to our door begging for deals.

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

Boris Johnson Mendex est

 

“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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I think the reality is really starting to come home to many people who thought this was going to be the EU, India, Australia, the US etc running to our door begging for deals.

 

Well - other than to sell us stuff

- and we need to sell our stuff (which is mostly foreign owned now anyway)

 "Moral emptiness"  "unrepentant and inveterate liar"  "devoid of decency"

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“The failure of the cheerleaders of Brexit to acknowledge the consequences of Brexit as due to Brexit remains remarkable.” - David Schneider

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Are we not forgetting the WTO has something like 160 members and they all, just like the EU member states have to agree for the UK to become a member of that organisation. And even with the WTO we will still have to pay into that organisations and tariffs at 15%

 

 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't really :lol:

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