Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

I need to update my new sig already

 

It would seem that the £192 Million pounds a week every week (£10B a year) in just customs administrative extra burden was underestimated, even based on 2017 trade amounts - It seems its  £15 billion - over £288 MILLION pounds a week - just in extra customs admin costs.

 

https://www.bifa.org/news/articles/2019/oct/uk-supply-chains-face-15bn-annual-freight-admin-cost-rise-from-no-deal-brexit

"“HMRC therefore estimates that the static total ongoing administrative burden on UK-EU trade is £15 billion (updated to reflect 2017 data) a year. "

 

add to that the projected 1 billion pounds a year in extra admin costs for the chemicals industry (over 19 million pounds a week)

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-chemicals/red-tape-for-firms-is-price-of-leaving-anti-science-eu-gove-says-idUKKBN26M5SB

which Gove calls "an inevitable consequence of leaving the European Union Single Market and Customs Union"

... and Gove claims the EU is anti-science!!!

 

Extra import charges when ordering from UK based web sites -  in line with current charges for orders from America

https://www.newstalk.com/news/brexit-extra-charges-apply-people-shopping-uk-websites-1073525

 

Average 20% on shopping basket contents

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/suppliers-and-supermarkets-set-for-post-brexit-incoterms-showdown/647411.article

 

 

£288,000,000 pounds a week in extra Brexit customs red tape

£19,000,000 a week in extra chemicals industry Brexit red tape

20% average increase in Brexit shopping baskets

Extra import charges when ordering many items from ebay/Amazon and other UK hosted web sites post Jan 1st

 

We're going to need a bigger bus

 

 

(Isn't around £280M a week one of the more accurate calculations of the actual net cost of EU membership? - gone in just one item)

Edited October 1 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

LOL

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-wto-election-boris-johnson-trade-bexit-b882783.html

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

UK Government releases details of advice for businesses regarding end of transition period

 

Details of advice for businesses regarding end of transition period

release date 11/10/20202 v23.7.43

 

Businesses should prepare for end of Brexit transition period.

 

End of release detail

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

Unlabelled Chlorinated chicken still potentially on table thanks to

 

"Liz Truss, the trade secretary, who opened the door to chlorinated chicken in her trade negotiations with Washington earlier this year, informed senior MPs of the move late last week."

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-chlorinated-chicken-eu-mps-boris-johnson-b914047.html

Anger as ministers use obscure rule to deny MPs a vote on blocking chlorinated chicken imports

"The US has made opening the door to its lower-grade agricultural goods a red line.

Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, said it must be part of any deal, during a visit in January."

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

and while we are worrying about them locking down and potentially killing our children

they rob us blind to feed their mates profits

 

"On 27 March Government opened its portal inviting tenders for PPE on the gov.uk website and received 24,000 offers from 16,000 suppliers.  

It has spent – and this is the Treasury’s own figure – a staggering £15 billion. And, surprisingly, three of the biggest beneficiaries were companies specialising in pest control, a confectionery wholesaler and an opaque private fund owned through a tax haven.

 

Why? We do not know. And Government is not helping – it has ignored the usual rule that contracts should be published within 20 days."

 

https://goodlawproject.org/news/the-ppe-fiasco/

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/11/mps-launch-legal-action-against-uk-government-over-covid-contracts

 

Edited October 12 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13 4,364]

Channel4 Dispatches has a programme at 8pm today [Monday], the title is Dirty Secrets of American Food: Coming to a Supermarket Near You?

[brassnecked 1,781]

A key plank of the US incursion is the banning of source of origin labelling so you don't know where the food comes from.

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

they call it 'preventing bias or prejudice against US goods or something like dont they?

 

If its such good quality, one would think they would be proud of it.

 

'Quality Kentucky Cage reared and Chlorinated chicken'

- shipped into and via the label removing plant in Kentucky USA'

 

note: may be reared and treated elsewhere

[honeybee13 4,364]

Article from the Guardian about arrangements being made for lorry drivers in Kent and elsewhere. Portaloos seem to be the main priority.

 

For me, the most worrying part is at the end when they talk about the number of permits the UK has compared with the number of lorries.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/14/roadside-portable-loos-planned-for-lorry-drivers-delayed-by-brexit-checks?CMP=share_btn_tw

[honeybee13 4,364]

Someone on a legal Twitter thread suggested watching Robert Buckland in front of the Lords' Constitution Committee.

 

It's all interesting although a Buckland was bit waffly IMO, but they were very interested in Lord [Peter] Hennessy who was a journalist specialising in the constitution. He wanted to know if Buckland is prepared to ask the Queen to sign a piece of legislation that breaks international law.

 

His questions start just before 12.10 on the video.

 

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/94cc4862-7d5d-4e82-9121-974411f99fc0

[honeybee13 4,364]

The Lords Constitutional Committee report is out already.

 

One legal commentator said the committee disagrees with almost everything in the Internal Market Bill. The headline of the report is 'UK Internal Market Bill violates the rule of law and threatens to undermine devolution arrangements, says Committee'.

 

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/172/constitution-committee/news/120102/uk-internal-market-bill-violates-the-rule-of-law-and-threatens-to-undermine-devolution-arrangements-says-committee/

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

Grim beyond belief’: Serco profits to surge as test and trace records worst ever week

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/serco-profits-rise-test-trace-contract-outsourcing-b1072309.html

 

Serco has announced it expects bumper profits after securing an extension to its Test and Trace contract which this week delivered its worst ever performance.  

[honeybee13 4,364]

That's depressing, TJ.

 

So is this. Moody's have downgraded the UK's credit rating, due to a weakening economy, Brexit and coronavirus. They're pretty scathing about the government.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/16/uk-credit-rating-downgraded-by-moodys-amid-growth-concerns

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

and we should not forget that

"In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of the United Kingdom thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs"

- given our growing debt mountain

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/17/covid-reinfections-to-be-expected-as-virus-spreads-say-government-scientists

 

"Doctors have reported nearly two dozen cases of suspected or confirmed Covid-19 reinfections, but the real number is thought to be far higher, since most reinfections are not recorded. While most reinfections are milder than the original infection, some cases reported in the US, the Netherlands, Spain and India have described more severe symptoms the second time round."

 

 

You read it here first folks ...

 

 

Edited October 17 by tobyjugg2

[theoldrouge 792]

Such great foresight 

Francis Bacon 1623

 

 ‘Nil terribile nisi ipse timor’, or ‘Nothing is terrible except fear itself.’

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

@theoldrouge

Such great hindsight .. Nearly 500 years

Bacon is also attributed with "ipsa scientia potestas est"

 

although Johnson and handcock would certainly appear to be the antithesis to 'praemonitus, praemunitus'

 

 

 

Edited October 19 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

and Heres some more recent quotes for you

 

'Britain does not break treaties'

- Margaret Thatcher

 

I was at a hospital where there were a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody

- Boris Johnson 3 March

 

We cannot turn our backs on Europe. We are part of Europe

- Boris Johnson

 

There are no disasters, only opportunities, and, indeed opportunities for fresh disasters

– Boris Johnson

 

Coming to a free trade agreement with the EU should be "one of the easiest in human history.'

- Liam Fox

 

In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way

- Nigel Farage

 

The day after we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want

- Michael Gove (and unapologetic for his claims yesterday on Marr excusing his claims by others not delivering on them)

 

Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the Single Market

- Daniel Hannan

 

If we Vote Leave we will be able to stop handing over so much money to the EU and we would be able to spend our money on priorities here in the UK like abolishing prescription charges.

- Gisela Stuart

 

Without our EU budget contributions, we could give everyone a 60 per cent council tax cut

- Daniel Hannan

 

 

 

"The Covid-19 epidemic can teach us a lot about ourselves and our civilization. It reminds us, first of all, of the deep human vulnerability in a world that has done everything to forget it. Our lifestyles and our entire economic system are based on a form of excess, of omnipotence, consecutive to the forgetting of our corporeality. This is not only the fact of having a body and being mortal, but it means taking into account the materiality of our existence and our dependence on the biological, environmental and social conditions of our existence”

- Corine Pelluchon

 

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

Update on one of the real drivers of Brexit:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/freeports-consultation/freeports-consultation

 

need to read the responses linked from the above to see the intentions of a number of people who are applying.

 

eg

"A majority  of  respondents  expressed  positivity  about the  potential  for a  business  rates  relief  within
Freeports to attract significant business activity to those areas."

 

"Responses from port operators highlighted their generally positive reactions to the prospect of a
regime of tax incentives within Freeports,"

 

Largely - we pay nowt and you prove we should ..

 

 

[honeybee13 4,364]

Interesting, TJ.

 

It now seems that the UK is refusing to resume negotiations even though the EU seem to have made some concessions. The posturing is getting a bit wearing.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/19/brexit-gove-praises-constructive-move-as-eu-agrees-to-intensify-talks

[theoldrouge 792]

Oh dear, Guardianistas in full flow

again

Posturing is a necessary part of the negotiations 

Obviously some form of deal will be cobbled together to save face on both sides

At least no government of any colour will touch this subject again for decades to come, if ever

 

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

You should know at least as well as I if not better how little focus there is in the EU on Brexit now. Usually little more than A two line sideline away from the headlines.

 

I think the EU simply expect to do a more comprehensive deal with the next UK government, but don't want to be seen as the causes of the rift.

What worth any 'deal' with Johsnon 'The Liar' anyway? - clearly demonstrated as utterly worthless.

There will undoubtedly be some sort of deal that Johnson will call 'fabulous which the EU benefits from and can drop quickly WHEN Johnson and pals try to shaft them.

 

Sunack focusing on trying to confirm financial equivalence at moment isn't he? - while the money (Brexiters especially) runs through his fingers EU-ward.

 

Almost certainly to some extent equivalence will be given - but EU can drop that equivalence as soon as UK standards/rules drift

- not a good basis for long term investment seems to me especuially when arch Brexiters like mogg and redwood have loooong ago done and advised - open an office and shift assets to EU - far more risk light for those that can do it.

OK for money traders - then they can deregulate their separate UK offices without EU standards stopping them from shafting UK people and businesses -  while the redwoods maintain EU business under EU rules.

- Much harder for manufacturing, Transport and chemicals industries who have little option but to move elsewhere or become uncompetitive..

 

anyway, The UK could loose any equivalence as soon as the breach of trust case progresses even before they visibly diverge. All legal, reasonable, according to international agreements and above board on the EU side.

 

 

Gove has reportedly given a truly nut shrivelling estimate of the ACTUAL costs and damage of even short term partial mitigation of a no deal scenario to Sunack.

 

Whining Brexiters will moan despite claiming EU are 'bullies' for not caving in to Johnsons crap when Johnson is supposed to hold all the cards and had negotiated a grate deal.... LOL - actually the deal that even May rejected as the worst of the worst and  Johnson 'pulled out of the waste paper bin claiming a great deal ... until recently when it became worth trashing the UK's international reputation to get rid of.

Most will moan a lot more when they realise the head Brexiters plans for their own enrichment at the cost of everyone else including their supporters ... realise far to late of course that they are the chinese cheap labour to a shrinking enriched Singapore  type rich class.. as everyone else get poorer.

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2 1,039]

seen this on the realities of the real problems about to hit the transport industry and JIT processes ?

 

 

 

[cjcregg 574]

8 hours ago, theoldrouge said:

Oh dear, Guardianistas in full flow

again

 

 

 

Tell me about it.

 

I was against Brexit but somehow I managed not to allow myself to turn my opposition to it into an obsession. 

[honeybee13 4,364]

I think there's a difference between obsession and wanting the UK to be well-managed and to get the best possible deal for the economy.