Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

The government are tabling a debate on the conduct of the 2016 election. They don't seem to be in a hurry about this as the petition started early April last year.

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/250178

[brassnecked]

Meanwhile Brexit takes a back seat, and Coronavirus rules, it seems parliament might be suspended.

[honeybee13]

Indeed. So they're worried about 3000 staff in Parliament, but they're letting two Six Nations matches go ahead because they don't want to make unpopular announcements?

[brassnecked]

If it's that serious the matches should be cancelled.  Bet Coronavirus won't stop the Gilet Jaunes though.

[tobyjugg2]

UK Civil Aviation Authority (@UK_CAA)

Flybe has entered administration.

All Flybe flights are cancelled. Please do not go to the airport as your Flybe flight will not be operating.

[unclebulgaria67]

The main problem with Covid-19 is that it stopped many people discussing their favourite topic Brexit 

 

The UK is facing a huge challenge this year,  with the economics being ridiculously complex and frightening.

 

If most of the world that the UK trades with is in recession trying to recover from the economic hit caused by Covid-19, will that make it easier or harder to obtain favourable trade deals ?

 

BBC article about Nissan in Sunderland, saying that they need a tariff free trade deal with the EU or there is a risk to them still be able to continue manufacturing in the UK.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52900528

 

Up and down the country businesses will be struggling anyway with the problems caused by Covid-19.  Changes caused by Brexit may just be too much for many of them to cope with ?

[honeybee13]

Time will tell, UB, but I think it's going to be tricky. Businesses have said that they want an extension of the transition period but some people think the government is using Covid as an excuse not to take the negotiations too serioiusly and to distract us from the fact that they're driving towards the cliff edge.

[tobyjugg2]

Brexit: Northern Ireland assembly passes motion calling for transition period extension

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-assembly-extension-leave-eu-uk-transition-period-a9545606.html

 

 

I have no doubts whatsoever that Johnson wants no-deal (err we've agreed no deal - thats a great deal)    and that a full blown 'Tory (the real ones) rebellion is needed

 

 

I think its utterly shocking the rampant lies and abuses that are going on - beggars belief really.

Politics has always been a dirty game, but the current situation is astounding

 

PM unlawfully prorogues parliament and gets away with it

 

Jenrick unlawfully steps in and gives his mate and Tory doner an unlawful go-ahead to save him 10's of millions - and is getting away with it

 

Cummings and Jenrick ignore lockdown rules and its not just accepted, they are praised for it (by Johnson and handcock)

 

Stats on the Coronavirus are known to be total crap breaching all required standards - and nothing done about it

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

I suspect this Dominic Cummings moment and the handling of the pandemic are going to be like Blair’s Sticking up 2 fingers at the British public and blindly following the US into Iraq. 
 

Not saying they will lose the next election because of it, but expect a long slow decline and Johnson gone as PM by then.

 

In the scheme of things a clearly self inflicted no deal Brexit might accelerate The process.

[tobyjugg2]

18 hours ago, London1971 said:

I suspect this Dominic Cummings moment and the handling of the pandemic are going to be like Blair’s Sticking up 2 fingers at the British public and blindly following the US into Iraq. 
 

Not saying they will lose the next election because of it, but expect a long slow decline and Johnson gone as PM by then.

 

In the scheme of things a clearly self inflicted no deal Brexit might accelerate The process.

 

 

What makes you think they wont simply rewrite history, claim they did everything right, and blame labour despite the Tory majority?

Mind you, that majority is undoubtedly Carbuncle labours fault

 

 

Its happening constantly, why would you think it will be different?

eg:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/britain-could-change-immigration-rules-for-hong-kong-citizens

 

Johnson spins a headline lie and swears its true despite his ministers going ... errr

and the reality clearly going to be something different that Johnsons trumpesque headline

 

[tobyjugg2]

Bank of England tells banks to be ready for no-deal Brexit

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe-banks/bank-of-england-warns-banks-about-no-deal-brexit-risk-sky-idUKKBN23A18L

 

 

They are

Bank by bank, here's where you can expect to work after Brexit

 

.. and it aint Britain.

 

https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/3000398/brexit-banks-moving-out-of-london

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/06/rbs-braces-for-no-deal-brexit-by-shifting-13bn-to-netherlands

 

 

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/brexit-latest-bank-of-england-governor-andrew-bailey-preparations-no-deal-2874022

 

"Nissan, which is the UK’s largest carmaker, warned on Wednesday that its business in Britain “will not be sustainable” if the current tariff agreement with the EU is abandoned."

Edited June 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[Jase1982]

Yesterday I saw an article suggesting Boris is ready to "take back control" at this point suggesting someone else is to blame for this mess.  I agree with Toby.  They'll just rewrite history and convince people that they were held back or something by the left.  Even if we have a no deal brexit it'll just be masked by the pandemic, and any hardships will just be a fallout of having to spend all this money.

 

Any backlash on the Tory party is just wishful thinking.  We just need Kier Starmer to not let it go

[London1971]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

What makes you think they wont simply rewrite history, claim they did everything right, and blame labour despite the Tory majority?

Mind you, that majority is undoubtedly Carbuncle labours fault

 

 

Its happening constantly, why would you think it will be different?

eg:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/britain-could-change-immigration-rules-for-hong-kong-citizens

 

Johnson spins a headline lie and swears its true despite his ministers going ... errr

and the reality clearly going to be something different that Johnsons trumpesque headline

 

Maggie Thatcher, the Poll Tax

John Major , Tory sleaze

Tony Blair, Iraq

Nick Clegg, student loans

 

Boris Johnson, Pandemic / Cummings ?
 

Only history will tell but all of the above can spin, lie, make stuff up but their names will always be stuck to something that was their downfall. Like dried dog poo on a wall.

[tobyjugg2]

18 minutes ago, Jase1982 said:

 

Any backlash on the Tory party is just wishful thinking.  We just need Kier Starmer to not let it go

 

 

Yes, after a flying start he seems to be rather stalled.

Legal arguments against a Government that writes its own rules is 'somewhat unlikely to be effective' or 'a crock' in more common parlance.

 

If he can't make hay in the current shambles,

* with over 50,000 reported dead,

* common folk locked down and fined for trying to get child care while Ministers and spads do whatever they like and go wherever they like with childcare as an excuse

* and businesses fleeing or fled,

then when can he?

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

15 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Maggie Thatcher, the Poll Tax

John Major , Tory sleaze

Tony Blair, Iraq

Nick Clegg, student loans

 

Boris Johnson, Pandemic / Cummings ? Only history will tell bit all of the above can spin, lie, make stuff up but their names will always be stuck to something that was their downfall. Like dried dog poo on a wall.

 

 

 

and the uproar changed the form of Thatchers poll tax did it not?

Real Tories do.

 

 

I would say that Cleggs student loan issue (not excusing it) was another  perfect example of a Labour issue (no option and unelectable) causing the issue which Torys made sure fell on who they wanted it too

Clegg was left with little option there - but still should have fought harder for an election pledge.

 

 

I would argue that Blair and Iraq is more an issue for minority leftie bit of labour than anyone else. They are the ones who continue to harp on about it.

The action was right, the excuse and the end game was wrong.

Belgrano?

 

 

What was it about Major and Sleeze?

Can't remember.

Christine Keeler?

Edited June 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[Jase1982]

1 minute ago, tobyjugg2 said:

I would say that Cleggs student loan issue (not excusing it) was another  perfect example of a Labour issue (no option and unelectable) causing the issue which Torys made sure fell on who they wanted it too

Clegg was left with little option there - but still should have fought harder fro an election pledge.

 

Looking back I think Clegg probably banked everything so that he could have his referendum on changing the electoral system assuming the wave of feeling the Lib Dems were getting at the time would sweep them towards a change that would see them win more seats in the future.  He lost big time.

 

I'm not seeing any huge backlash against boris on social media.  I think it was Piers Morgan of all people who said that politics is getting very tribal.  He's right.  At the minute you have the red team and the blue team.  If you support the blue team you're with them through anything, and equally if you support the red team.  People that support the blue team have dug in that it doesn't matter what boris does.  They even lap up that nonsense about dominic cummings driving 260 miles with covid 19 for the sake of his autistic child and then jumping out at a natural beauty spot 60 miles away to test his eyesight

[London1971]

The details don’t matter. My point is that all of these events were the beginning of the end for said politician. Note , not the end of their party being in power necessarily. 
 

When I say beginning of the end , I mean several years eg 4 years for Blair of a slow decline. The Tories will almost certainly win the next election but I doubt it will be with Boris.

[tobyjugg2]

10 minutes ago, London1971 said:

When I say beginning of the end , I mean several years eg 4 years for Blair of a slow decline. The Tories will almost certainly win the next election but I doubt it will be with Boris.

 

I don't think either of those is anything like a given.

I think the messes are really going to hit the fans and the pivot point/fulcrum is just afew ergs away

What does Johnson or the Tories have to pull out of a hat as an excuse/headliner  - I can't see anything. Even a mediocre Starmer performance.

 

 

Yippe we've finally escaped from EU colditz, the banks and businesses have all left, and you need to get out in the fields for your benefits, and taxes are rising and services are falling,  WTO is meaningless as our pal Trump has trashed it, and the NHS now has to buy at higher cost from US sources,

BUT our MP salary is increasing and we can still do whatever we like whatever we instruct you to do ... Yippee everyone

 

 

 

 

 

'4 years for Blair of a slow decline' - I think you are stretching there London

 

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

As you say none of this is a given, but it’s a strong possibility. Sometimes mud sticks, sometimes it doesn’t. To me this has the feel of something that will, and it’s because of the backdrop of the highly unusual times we are in.

 

 

[brassnecked]

Just consider that if the cretinous Johnson goes, we might get Gove or The Beadle. Beadle = Rees-Mogg wannabe Beadle of Workhouse UK

[tobyjugg2]

Big issue is that its some time until the run up to the next election where Tories will be worried for their seats

[tobyjugg2]

On 02/03/2020 at 15:28, honeybee13 said:

I can't believe what I'm reading today. We don't need farming or fishing?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/01/treasury-adviser-farming-and-fisheries-are-not-important

 

And a US trade deal won't go anywhere near replacing what we look like losing from the EU. Even Liz Truss thinks so now.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/mar/02/uk-says-it-will-not-lower-standards-to-strike-trade-deal-with-trump

 

 

Singapore on Thames was always the plan HB

Low taxes and regulations for the rich and powerful

Low services, rights and wages for the workers

 

 

 

Just look at how the COVID rules apply differently.

 

Plebs - you must stay at home with NO excuses

Privileged - you are honoured and honourable whatever you do

 

 

Thats why EU is so hot on EU rules if you want preferential EU trade and they wont let that go

and why the banks are moving their EU related assets, although they will maintain a Singaporian presence here of course

 

"follow the example of Singapore, which is “rich without having its own agricultural sector”."

Which has china with loads of breadline 'farmers and workers next door..

 

 

Edited June 4, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, Jase1982 said:

 

I'm not seeing any huge backlash against boris on social media.

 

They even lap up that nonsense about dominic cummings driving 260 miles with covid 19 for the sake of his autistic child and then jumping out at a natural beauty spot 60 miles away to test his eyesight

 

 

and that is what is truly astonishing to me.

[barns66]

I see that nearly a million and half people signed this about Cummings.will it amount to much thoughthough.https://www.change.org/p/uk-parliament-dominic-cummings-must-be-sacked

Edited June 4, 2020 by barns66
adding

[honeybee13]

That's a huge figure and people are still signing. Sadly I don't see much happening but people have expressed their feelings and I hope it won't be forgotten.