Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

Did someone already post up the quote that Brexit has already cost more than we paid the EU in the last 47 years? I'm not sure who it came from.

[tobyjugg2]

Just a page back HB

 

 

 

As Bloomberg Economics reports

Brexit cost for UK will soar to $260 billion this year: study

"The UK's December election brought new certainty around Brexit's completion, but the event will grow most expensive in 2020, according to new research from Bloomberg Economics.

The study by UK economist Dan Hanson found Brexit has already cost the nation roughly 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), and estimates Prime Minister Boris Johnson's expedited exit from the EU will add another 70 billion pounds ($91 billion) by the end of 2020."

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/brexit-cost-reach-billions-highest-boris-johnson-uk-economic-study-2020-1-1028809389

 

 

Boris' new Bus:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

Problem is that Bloomberg Economics are experts. To a hard core, rabid brexiteer any thing that they say must be wrong.

[brassnecked]

They would rather believe the ludicrous dodgy research of the ERGs Shanker Singham, commonly referrerd to as 'Ol Snake Oil, rather than Bloomberg.

[London1971]

It’s so polarised right now people just believe what they want to believe.

[brassnecked]

Common sense and a proper look at what's what in reality has gone down the pan.

[tobyjugg2]

Theres the Bloomberg report, Standard and Poors analysis, The bank of Englands Report

.. not one of which estimates the cost at less than the 180-250M a week it roughly costs depending on whats included.

The higher realistic end is just short of 900M a week from the bank of England.

The 250m a week estimates come from the ERG's estimates before they shut up when those estimates were trounced. as demonstrably  ridiculously low

 

That Bloomberg amount is pretty middle of the road, and is roughly what I've been seeing as only disputable by extreme zealots - it could be FAR more.

 

 

So putting that in perspective, if there is no further damage to the economy, and no further loss/reduction in business/growth, and adding in a small amount of interest on that loss (money has to come from somewhere and we are already further in debt than we have ever been)

- it will be in the order of 50 odd years before we even break even .....

 

Of course, Rees-Moggs entirely unsupported middle finger in the air estimates of about 2050 when we will see some benefits would effectively require a MASSIVE boost to the UK;s 'profitability'

- although no-one seems to be able to define any sources for that profitability other than perhaps connecting the climate destroying hot air coming out of Rees-Moggs gob directly to a wind and steam power station.

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

Shankar Singham is providing the info for the Beadle's hot air

[tobyjugg2]

I thought it was just a hot air pump to turbo the wind and stream ...

Not seen any actual info,

think I did see some empty sound bites like '20% growth from worldwide trade bigger than the EU and all the benefits of the EU (thats not going to happen)

 

.. and hows those trade deals going?

 

We aren't even rolling over the ones we've got

:-/

 

[tobyjugg2]

The big issue with trade deals is that the other parties are more interested in how trading with the UK will impact their far more important trade with the EU

... and they wont risk the EU trade.

 

... and thats NOT that the EU are playing that, its simply that EU regs require standards and it seems certain that the UK will not meet those standards and other parties want to see what extra checks/costs will be involved before they agree/what they agree with the far smaller UK.

[tobyjugg2]

clarification

want to see what extra checks/costs for their EU trade will be involved before they agree/what they agree with the far smaller UK.

[honeybee13]

I read earlier, don't ask me where, that the EU is preparing to give us a worse deal than Japan or Canada because we're on their doorstep.

 

And if we allow the US to dictate our food standards, that trade with the EU is really going to suffer.

[tobyjugg2]

25 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

I read earlier, don't ask me where, that the EU is preparing to give us a worse deal than Japan or Canada because we're on their doorstep.

 

And if we allow the US to dictate our food standards, that trade with the EU is really going to suffer.

 

I think that second point is the real issue HB

 

The US trade deal priorities from the US side include not identifying where food comes from to avoid any 'discrimination' against US goods, ... not only based on growth hormone, anti-biotic and bleach content

... of course the EU requires origin and details

 

We could easily end up with a worse deal than Turkey - worse wto terms too, as Turkey already has add-on deals to their WTO trading

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Lets give an example

 

The US wants no labelling to prevent discrimination - key negotiation goal (its in the leaked papers)

 

Three potential ways:

Just nothing on US goods

Nothing on any goods

Only goods destined to certain parties (EU, Canada for example) labelled

 

 

Smart chap decides to grow organic bananas in an under developed region.

 

Discovered he can get paid for moving human faeces from a shanty town, especially given the cholera and aids outbreaks, and that his banana trees thrive on it - they love all the moisture too ... although they are a little on the small and bent side

 

Signs a deal with a US import/export company based in Panama to ship the bananas simply labelled as 'organic grown bananas', who routes the ship through a US port

- note the stripping down of US FDA powers and funding under trump - not that they would be bothered - they aren't entering the US.

 

They are then shipped to the UK from the US with no origin, sold by the US arm of the import/export business

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

You're making me feel queasy, TJ.

[tobyjugg2]

Its what origin and eu bar codes and quality are all about. Knowing what you are buying.

 

No method is foolproof (the horsemeat scandal)

but no labelling/labelling not worth the paper its written on - means you have no idea what you are getting.

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and try getting detail from a US company

... make getting a dangerous driver who killed someone seem easy ...

 

There would be no tracing it like was successfully done in the EU

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Some might say thats an extreme example?

Well

As the goods would not actually be entering the US, the US FDA would not be interested even if their reducing remit allowed it,

... but EVEN if they did

Totally Disgusting Things the FDA Allows In Your Food

Insect Eggs and Maggots

Canned mushrooms are a good place to find maggots.

If there are "over 20 or more maggots of any size per 100 grams of drained mushrooms" or "five or more maggots two millimeters or longer per 100 grams," the FDA will pay attention. Otherwise, eat up.

 

Mold and Rot

What says wholesome goodness like apple pie, apple sauce and apple butter?

But apples get moldy, and the FDA will have something to say to the producer if the "average of mold count is 12 percent or more."

 

Rodent Hair

Is there mouse fur in your peanut butter? Insect parts? Could be.

The FDA says peanut butter can have no more than an average of one rodent hair per 100 grams.

 

Cigarette Butts

The FDA says food products can contain a certain amount of "foreign matter," a term that includes cigarette butts for that special smoky flavor.

 

Animal Faeces

What could smell more heavenly than cinnamon bark, bay leaves and cocoa beans?

The fact that the FDA allows a smidge of "mammalian excreta" to end up in the mix doesn't seem to affect the aroma at all. Does it?

Don't worry - the bananas were at the other end of the tree

 

Fruit Flies and Their Maggots

Fruit flies love tomato sauce so much they lay their eggs in it. But the FDA has its limits, allowing no more than 15 or more fruit fly eggs and one or more maggots per 100 grams of sauce.

 

Thrips

Thrips are slender, winged insects, also known as thunderflies and thunderblights. Among their favorite foods are asparagus and the hops used to make beer. If too many thrips show up on asparagus - 40 or more per 100 grams - the FDA may take action. Otherwise, enjoy.

 

Parasites

The FDA says it's okay for fish to contain parasitic cysts like this one. In the case of fresh water herring, the limit is 60 parasitic cysts per 100 fish.

 

Insect Faeces

Bugs love spices. They feed on spices, poop in spices - and even leave their body parts behind after they die. The FDA allows up to 325 insect fragments per 10 grams of ground thyme, Including cockroach faeces

.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/11-totally-disgusting-things-the-fda-allows-in-your-food/

 

 

but of course, if it aint entering the US of A, its not their problem to hold them to those high standards ....

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[Jase1982]

How the hell do they even regulate against those sort of numbers, or am I just being naive... It's not like anyone will sit there counting the food in and confirming the number of allowed deformities 

 

Or are these FDA regulations there so that they can spend absolutely nothing on any meaningful standards and regulations ...

[tobyjugg2]

yes ....

[tobyjugg2]

and back to HS2

(40 or so) Tory MPs urge PM to deliver 'long overdue' HS2 in joint letter

despite costs apparently spiralling to £106bn, arguing it will be a “key engine for growth that we must not waver from”.

 

What growth would that be?

 

 

“Abandoning the project would leave the north reliant on aged Victorian infrastructure,” the MPs warn in the letter

 

Seems to me that apart from SOME of the bits hs2 will run through, everywhere else will not only be left on the 'aged Victorian infrastructure', HS2 will have stolen the money and more that would be far better spent of the infrastructure of the region, rather than small select bits of it.

 

 

How about spending far less than the seven billion plus pounds already spent on it putting network infrastructure backbone between the points enabling fast reliable  green clean efficient cost effective electronic communication between those points,

and even just the rest of the original 56 billion on upgrading/renovating/repairing the transport infrastructure for local movement of people and goods?

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

The Guardian had an article about that the other day, that all or nearly all the infrastructure projects lead to London or the south east. I've never understood the point of HS2.

[tobyjugg2]

Now this is what you call an infrastructure project

- But of course its not directly benefiting loondon is it?

 

>530GWh

Reliable net power output every year, for 120 years

 

Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon will be the world’s first tidal lagoon power plant.

A tidal lagoon is a ‘U’ shaped breakwater, built out from the coast which has a bank of hydro turbines in it. Water fills up and empties the man-made lagoon as the tides rise and fall. We generate electricity on both the incoming and outgoing tides, four times a day, every day.

 

Due to the incredible tides on the West Coast of Britain, by keeping the turbine gates shut for just three hours, there is already a 4m height difference in water between the inside and the outside of the lagoon. Power is then generated as the water rushes through 60m long draft tubes, rotating the 7.2m diameter hydro turbines.

 

The project was awarded a Development Consent Order in 2015 and is primed for construction. It will comprise 16 hydro turbines, a 9.5km breakwater wall, generating electricity for 155,000 homes for the next 120 years. Its major delivery partners include Atkins, General Electric, Andritz Hydro, Laing O’Rourke and Alun Griffiths Ltd.

 

 

http://www.tidallagoonpower.com/projects/swansea-bay/key-statistics/

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

and if you have to dig holes in the ground

 

https://www.edengeothermal.com/about/project-programme/

 

 

 

 

Fabulous place. Been there a few times.

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

HS2 was part of an EU designed link going back to the days of Jaques Delors  An article from 2012 in the Torygraph by the late Christopher Booker is worth a read.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/9015342/The-continent-is-the-final-destination-for-HS2.html