Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

any end date to a 'transition is moot as Johnson is just working on getting us out so that revoke is removed as an option.

 

Once thats done he'll work to crash us out ASAP

 

.. Probably by signing EU incompatible deals with the US

Edited October 22, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

So whats the odds on the EU granting a 12 months FINAL extension for the UK to sort itself.

 

General election + either referendum, revoke article 50 )libdems) or revoke membership of EU (Johnson) or Corbyn doing a May until the time runs out depending on who wins

 

[honeybee13]

It could just be a recipe for more time-wasting.

 

Bojo and Cummings say they want an election but can't currently call one unless they get a 2/3 majority so it just seems to be posturing. Plus they don't want MPs poring over the new deal and finding more things that don't work.

[tobyjugg2]

Johnsons' wording to the EU in his 'sent from a UK ditch' extension request leaves it wide open for the EU to decide

 - because he petulantly 'wont negotiate with the EU

oh dear - that left things wide open.

 

.. but yes it could result in more time wasting

- but the SNP and libdems will undoubtedly support a no confidence once a safe extension is secured even if Corbyn is quite rightly running scared.

[tobyjugg2]

 

Cat Sat waiting for the rat outside the plushest ditch in England

 

 

Edited October 23, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

It's not the first time I've seen this. Buzzfeed has an article about warring factions in No 10.

 

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-top-team-war-election

 

And in the Independent, there are allegations that the PM misled parliament. Bojo isn't having a good day.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-boris-johnson-northern-ireland-sea-border-checks-steve-barclay-latest-a9167651.html

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

He wont care, With the exception of unlawfully proroguing Parliament the English courts have already largely declared anything he says is a political issue outside their remit -  like his abuse of the mayoral position to promote Brexit

 

.. and there aren't the numbers in Parliament to do anything about it ... yet.

 

He probably thinks 'Father of Lies' is an honorific

We just think a PM lying through his teeth every time he opens his mouth horrific.

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

Interesting that the Brexiters appear to be reported as again going to Poland,

whos' citizens the Brexit Campaigns seem to love demonising,

... to help them with a veto  ...

 

 

"Conservative MP Daniel Kawczynski, who was born in Poland, has written to Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki asking him to veto an extension to the October 31 Brexit deadline.

 

“By trying to frustrate, block and prevent Brexit, the elitist cabal of Remainers in Parliament are violating the democratic ideals that are so vital and precious for both the UK and Poland,” he wrote.

 

“It simply is not in your interest to allow the dither and delay to continue, as it surely would under yet another extension of Article 50.”

 

 

 

Didn't he do the similar before?

[honeybee13]

Yes he did and Poland said no.

 

I agree with you about the hypocrisy after all the Polish plumber comments.

[brassnecked]

What's wrong with a Polish plumber? One of my son's fiancee is Polish, a 1st class honours graduate, and working in IT, I was informed that quite a few Poles don't like Tusk, something about VAT fraud, so no more squeaky than the dodgy outgoing Juncker.

[honeybee13]

I wasn't saying anything about Polish plumbers, builders and so on, BN. My point was meant to be that some people who voted to leave didn't like them being here and that appealing to Poland now is rather two-faced.

[brassnecked]

No I wasn't aiming at you HB, I was after the very ones you just mentioned, the ones who don't want Welshmen like me working in Engerland, so would be equally disparaging of Poles, Scots, Germans.  There have been more Poles in the UK since WWII than many realise as more than a few married British girls and stayed after the war.

[Jase1982]

I'd love to know where all these facebook posts accusing him of collusion with a foreign state are.  Massive double standards.

[fletch70]

Talking to some Polish student friends of mine, it seems Poland is as divided as the UK. The Law and Justice party has thrown money at the rural communities who are now backing them whereas the urban areas are in general against them. They are a deeply divided country. 

[Jase1982]

32 minutes ago, fletch70 said:

Talking to some Polish student friends of mine, it seems Poland is as divided as the UK. The Law and Justice party has thrown money at the rural communities who are now backing them whereas the urban areas are in general against them. They are a deeply divided country. 

 

 

Yet Poland received an obscene amount of money last year in investment from the EU.

 

[tobyjugg2]

 

3 hours ago, Jase1982 said:

I'd love to know where all these facebook posts accusing him of collusion with a foreign state are.  Massive double standards.

 

 

https://news.sky.com/story/tory-mp-daniel-kawczynski-defends-bid-to-get-poland-to-veto-brexit-delay-11841185

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-t5uQcHOQ88

 

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

looks like we are in a bit of a waiting for each other game

 

EU waiting for confirmation the UK will be having a general election or a referendum

Johnson wants general election

 

Corbyn holding it up

 

Corbyn needs to be GONE

[honeybee13]

It may not be just Corbyn, I think other oppostion parties want to delay an election for now. As I understand it, the later the GE the more time MPs and others will have had to pick holes in the WAB.

[tobyjugg2]

* If labour runs on their current non stance on brexit - they will rightly be demolished

 

* If they run on no deal - remainers would desert them - by FAR the largest part of their vote - they would be demolished

 

* Labour wont run on Remain - because Corbyn wont have it.

 

 

 

Corbyn wants Brexit - so is simply using the demand that no deal be taken off the table to waste time making a no deal brexit more likely, because he knows Johnson will NOT take no deal off the table.

 

The only options Corbyn wants is Fantasy Corbyn new terms deal to remain or fantasy Corbyn deal to Leave - aka waffle more for the next x years, or Johnson does Corbyns dirty work in Hard Brexit.

 

 

Happy to consider any other opinion but the facts do seem to define the above.

 

 

 

[fletch70]

Frankly I am not sure just how much I want a GE just now- lets get a referendum, and yes I will abide quietly by the result even if i disagree. Once that is done have a GE.

 

Of course on the flip side , if we have a referendum, just how much will the Brexit party split votes?

 

As for Poland receiving a lot of money- frankly they need it , a huge country with relatively poor infrastructure. Lets just remember how much cash the UK got after Maggie ravaged everywhere apart from the SE 

[tobyjugg2]

The only real way to start getting this sorted is a second referendum, but Johnson will have none of that, and I see no indication that corbyn would - and believe Corbyn would waffle if it were offered.

 

I dont see the Brexit party splitting votes in a referendum - just potentially (probably they will pact with the Tories) in a general election.

 

Corbyn will try to hang on to labour remainers ... splitting the vote in a GE

 

Corbyn is the core major problem here - not Johnson.

Edited October 24, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[fletch70]

I understand Corbyn's view although I think he is wrong. If he were to run on a soft brexit i.e customs union he may have a chance, of course with a customs union there come other things but he needn't stress them.

 

I know people do dislike Corbyn but the Labour Party did very well campaigning for the 2017 election - it does make a mockery of the FTPA although I never liked that anyway 

[fletch70]

2 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

I dont see the Brexit party splitting votes in a referendum - just potentially (but doubtfully - they will pact with the Tories) in a general election.

I ,ust disagree, if that was the case why did the Brexit party do so well in the traditional Labour areas at the European elections. They will take votes from both sides . There are many labour voters who just vote labour because they always have and are not engaged with the political process- 

[Jase1982]

I'm not entirely sure what Corbyn wants other than to be prime minister.  He has to choose his time wisely though because if he loses the next general election he'll resign and that'll be it.

 

I do think neither side wants an election before brexit is done but they're kind of just playing a game to see who will blink first.  Do they have the numbers for a vote of no confidence yet?  Could they topple the government at this stage and form a minority government under Corbyn who leads the country briefly towards a second referendum up against boris's deal..

 

I think it's now in the EU's hands to see how long they offer us as an extension, which also does the brexiteers a favour as they can claim the EU are telling us what to do again.

 

An election before brexit is done will harm both parties I'm sure of that.. brexiteers will turn up in droves and just tick the brexit party box like lemmings.

[tobyjugg2]

How can the Brexit party split Brexit votes in a referendum?

If its a three way choice it would have to be a multi choice referendum with second choices counted?

 

They could take votes in a GE

 

 

 

Corbyn is running out the clock - I have no doubts whatsoever on that.

 

 

The EU is waiting to ensure a GE or referendum WILL occur in the extension - which Corbyn is effectively vetoing. So Corbyn is the risk to the extension.

 

I think Johnson will call it and Labour MPs who don't fear for their Jobs because of corbyns waffle will rebel - will there be the numbers - dunno but Labour will be even further damaged

 

 

 

.. and I cant see Corbyn resigning for the good of the Party,

- probably less chance of that than Johnson resigning.