Article 50 Discussion

[cjcregg]

7 hours ago, Maharg1 said:

There definitely is no concrete proof in any poll.  If proof of how rubbish and misleading they are, just take the in/out referendum polls.

they all said there would be a massive remain vote and it turned out the exact opposite.

Most got it wrong but it's a myth to say they all did . More than 25% of the polls conducted between the publication of the referendum question and vote predicted leave, and it was hardly a ''massive'' win.

[fletch70]

We are to some extent bound by what the EU wants. Here’s a thought, new deal but with extension on the condition of validation by the population . If both main parties went with a referendum promise we could be stuck with 5 more years of that plonker 

[tobyjugg2]

 

So corbyn announces its a general election, and if labour win

 

its a Leave with a labour deal - after they negotiate one - or not

or remain with a labour deal after the EU agrees to change - or not.

 

so more years of pointless fantasy negotiation to keep him in power while he does whatever he really wants to do - whatever that is.

 

No point voting labour then.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

He will start to create his Marxist utopia, until other people's money runs out.

[tobyjugg2]

Seems its a choice between Stalin or Mussolini with the two 'main parties

I hope both get utterly trashed.

 

The radical right nationalists can vote Farage. A deal with Russia is likely better than a US one.

 

Normal reasonable folk should vote libdem

 

 

How about a Farage libdem coalition as the most sensible option available

For F**** sake. How have we got here.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[fletch70]

28 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

He will start to create his Marxist utopia, until other people's money runs out.

That is rather a sad misquote

 

Many people agree with many of his policies such as renationalise utilities and public transport. If they are run well they will provide the state with money rather than overseas investors or those who already have too much money. 

[Jase1982]

46 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

He will start to create his Marxist utopia, until other people's money runs out.

 

I dont personally understand the use of Marxism in a negative light.  Marxism to me is just a critique of capitalism.  How can anyone dismiss a critique of something?  You either disagree with the subject matter, or don't.  People that use the phrase spending other peoples money in the same sentence as marxism just seem to be repeating what they've heard some dodgy politician tell them.

 

In terms of spending other peoples people's money... look around you.   This world we live in has been built by gamblers and literally everyone owes a sum of money to someone else.  Every nation owes money to everyone and anything... so, whilst people would assert that capitalism has provided everything from your clothes to the air you breath.. I would argue that everything in this capitalist system has in fact been generated by other peoples money.  Even worse than that, it's been generated out of literal thin air as we are now creating money out of nothing because the system is so out of control that letting people know the true extent would indeed cause a mass revolt.

 

Further than that - what does spending other peoples money even mean?  We all exist in a kind of economic hamster wheel where we're spending money to keep other people in work.. so of course we're already spending other peoples money.  It's just that some people like to have more slices of the pie under this free market greed is good immoral world conservatives have created. 

Edited October 10, 2019 by Jase1982

[tobyjugg2]

34 minutes ago, fletch70 said:

Many people agree with many of his policies such as renationalise utilities and public transport. If they are run well they will provide the state with money rather than overseas investors or those who already have too much money. 

 

I agree with a number of those policies and that summary of the possible result you state for certain industries.

I certainly dont believe that Corbyn is the or even a person who will deliver that.

 

He will run the country into debt to suit some ideological ends just as Johnson is to promote his ideology.
 

He is running a pogrom on Labour MP's just as Johnson is to true blue tory MP's

both replacing variety with sycophants.

Sycophants say what is expected - they don't say or deliver what is needed.

 

I see little actual difference between them. Just a different slant to their claims of what they are intending. Johnson perhaps lies more, but Corbyn deceives as much.

Neither is trustworthy AT ALL.

 

 

No labour vote from me until Corbyn is gone.

[brassnecked]

You nailedit TB, neither are trustworthy, both have taken their parties down a dark path,.

[tobyjugg2]

LOL

and That was just a brief summary

Edited October 10, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

So corbyn announces its a general election, and if labour win

 

its a Leave with a labour deal - after they negotiate one - or not

or remain with a labour deal after the EU agrees to change - or not.

 

so more years of pointless fantasy negotiation to keep him in power while he does whatever he really wants to do - whatever that is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BUT which does include leaving the EU for EXACTLY the same reasons as the ERG

- he wants to be able to do whatever he likes, change what laws and rights he likes without the flack of threats of loss of trade deals and partnerships - they would already be gone..

 

Both are wannabe dictators and both would be more than happy to use Henry VIII dictatorial powers if they could get away with it.

 

Johnson undoubtedly is a self serving sociopath

... but probably MORE dangerously, Corbyn thinks he's a messiah.

 

and I think Corbyn actually concerns me more than Johnson does.

 

Actually listen to what Corbyn said today -

Leave with Corbyn renogotiated 'deal

or Remain with Corbyn renogotiated EU 'terms

... What the **** !!!!

 

 

I can see why Johnson is confident. Its entirely justified by Corbyn,

but I think and hope both are underestimating the libdems.

 

Both the Tory and labour parties as they are not only deserve to go down the pan, its required.

 

[fletch70]

Just for the record, I do not blindly follow Corbin and have some deep misgivings about the intent of Momentum (real or imagined). The argument that we need to leave to renationalise is just as false as the big red bus. 
 

Being a Marxist does not mean we think a communist utopia is there for the taking, it means we need to provide the right environment for it to happen. I will say that I believe we were moving in the right direction under Blair and to some extent even Cameron in that people were prepared to help out others inspire what IDS did with the welfare system. 
 

The utopia is a long way off but by using what we have we can move towards it. Run

nationalised industries to make profit (Lenin was a fan of scientific management to improve productivity) but a way to add to that is to provide a living wage and living hours . That has the capacity to make Britain far more productive 

Edited October 10, 2019 by fletch70

[tobyjugg2]

1 hour ago, fletch70 said:

The argument that we need to leave to renationalise is just as false as the big red bus. 

 

 

Absolutely true. and of course he must know that.

There are a few limited 'limitations' which would be entirely and easily surmountable by someone with just a small amount of flexibility.

Nation and business in partnership. Boths excesses limited.

 

So apart from an entire lack of both desirable and necessary flexibility

- what is Corbyns REAL issue that he hides behind 'need to leave to nationalise'?

- the likely (2) answer(s) is in the question - as answers commonly are.

 

As I said - as entirely untrustworthy as Johnson.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

If you look at the potential issues the EU might have, there seem to be two that stand out

 

1. Excessive subsidies by the state of industry with tax payers money (as BN alluded)

2. State hostile forced takeovers of Companies

 

Either/Both would seem to need to be excessive for it to be an issue

 

 

[honeybee13]

someone tweeted a link to this article in the New Statesman. Quite a long read but it explains how Brexiters think swashbuckling spirit and positive thinking can make an UK economy that's 'free of Europe' successful.

 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/10/myths-small-island-dangers-buccaneering-view-british-history

[brassnecked]

Can't be entirely free of Europe, still have to trade with the Bloc whatever the fwee twaders claim.

[tobyjugg2]

The path to a deal should also be taken with a bucket of salt

- as johnson insistence that equivalence with EU standards be out the window to enable lower US standards means that a hard border vanishing relationship seems improbable at best, and nearer 'not going to happen' than anything else.

 

Thats a no win for Johnson as he would almost certainly need to throw the DUP (and in somes opinion NI) under a bus to get one (and that will just be the start of issues JUST as damaging in many areas)

... or just throw NI under a bus if he doesn't.

 

Edited October 11, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[barns66]

It might be worth a read If you can find the conversation that John Le Carre (David Cornwell) had with the Guardian news paper and his views on brexit.

[honeybee13]

Barnier has just announced that talks are ready to go into 'the tunnel'.

[tobyjugg2]

The DUP do seem to be making noises that might sound like a sacrificial pig being thrown to the dogs.

 

Primary Driver:

We know that Johnson wants out to reduce rights and regs to allow US type imports (earlier post) which are NOT acceptable to the EU, reduce workers and environmental rights and force through fracking (Just examples)

 

We know there is currently no way to make an invisible magical border system with systems that simple don't exist and small cross border business' couldn't afford.

 

We know that Johnson is quite happy to throw anyone under the bus to save himself

 

We know the EU will NOT throw the RoI under the bus.

 

 

 

Options in likely order of Johnson preference.

 

1. Johnson spins out the rhetoric, implements the extension under 'duress' and fights an election based on leaving teh EU after spinning spend on issues for the election which will never actually happen.

Note Corbyn would probably like that as an alternative to Corbyn winning the election.

 

 

2. Some trick to generate a crash out - always possible, and say any border issue is the EU's issue

Issues:

many, many many  - not least that those plans would certainly breach WTO terms.

 

 

3. Leave NI in the EU with some sort of option for NI not to continue in the EU whenever they choose.

The EU (despite brexiter fanatic claims) would never get in the way of a democratic vote - but would resist any minority (ie DUP) 'veto

The border issue is still there if a majority vote does happen - although that would almost certainly be defined by the EU in any agreement as required to be a whole of the island of Ireland vote - not just NI - and that would probably result in Irish reunification in the EU.

 

Johnson would undoubtedly be happy to do that - but probably not be prepared to be seen to do it.

 

Note

A certain someone will be waiting in the sidelines to see if NI gets special EU access and demand the same.

[tobyjugg2]

Well it would appear Johnson 'no detail and nothing written down' 'deal is in trouble despite

 

* no real detail and nothing actually written down

and

* it only being intended to get the UK into the transition aka out of the EU where there is no other actual default other than no deal hard Brexit.

 

Not that Johnson will give a damn about the DUP as a general election is likely upcoming and he is hoping that they become redundant again. They have always been more a liability than an asset = but desperate times ...

 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

So what would johnson be telling the DUP?

 

DUP

WE are Unionists. A border between us and the rest of the UK is no more an an option than a border between England an Scotland. Even May realised that.

ooops Perhaps a bad example, but you get the drift..

 

Johnson:

Don't worry, its just a ploy to get that half baked no deal deal agreed. I would renege on that tout suite with your help as soon as those people the plebs voted in have no option to Remain when I shaft everyone.

 

DUP

Shaft Everyone?

So what assurances do we have

 

Johnson

Just trust me.

Edited October 17, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[brassnecked]

If there is a deal, and according to DE there is now

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1191876/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-deal-Jean-Claude-Juncker-latest-update

 

It might not get to Parliament, Jolyon Maugham QC is after an injunction under some 2018 tax law to prevent it being put to Parliament.  The lawyers are treading on very dangerous Constitutional ground. they better be careful as they are not elected representatives.

[honeybee13]

I believe the amendment on VAT and another amendment were tabled by the ERG

 

[fletch70]

15 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

If there is a deal, and according to DE there is now

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1191876/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Boris-Johnson-Brexit-deal-Jean-Claude-Juncker-latest-update

 

It might not get to Parliament, Jolyon Maugham QC is after an injunction under some 2018 tax law to prevent it being put to Parliament.  The lawyers are treading on very dangerous Constitutional ground. they better be careful as they are not elected representatives.

This is exactly the problem we have in this country, popularism. People read the likes of the Express and Mail and get caught up in the supposed 'anti democratic' legal system yet they demand the very same system protects them and their families. The legal system is part of the checks and balances against authoritarianism. Obviously it puts me in mind of the words 'First they came for the communists, and I did not speak out...' 

 

I am just reading a book where the original root of the word idiot is discussed as being 'a private man' and it was compared to someone who has no political engagement being an idiot- I do take that point and sadly there are very many idiots in this country. I am not equating political engagement with voting by the way as they are not the same.