Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

A lot of people said before this that Boris will abandon anyone if it means it helps his own position.

 

If I were Cummings I'd be concerned about my position, but maybe he has a wizard wheeze to ignore what's happened. Downing Street seem to be taking their time to reply about the Supreme Court decision. How do you defend the indefensible?

[tobyjugg2]

So how can a PM who has been ruled to have 'misled' the queen in ordering the prorogation of Parliament, possibly represent parliament or lead the country?

.. or be allowed to 'advise' the queen again?

 

How do the treason laws actually read nowadays?

 

 

“The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification,” Supreme Court President Brenda Hale

[tobyjugg2]

If this goes well Johnson might be wishing he had served a short jail term for abuse of office rather than the courts refusing to allow it for (IMO) unsupportable reasons.

 

That would at least have made him a martyr to the right wing jihadist fanatics,

... rather than just a lying (as judged) failure to them

..... and a lying (as judged) traitor (as implied) to the queen and the rest of us mere mortals...

 

 

I propose 'Father of Lies' as his new official 'honorific

.. as used unchallenged in the Supreme Court

 

Father of Lies, Deceiver of Her Majesty, All round A***Hole being the full title.

 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

In a WWE voice:

Introducing ...

 

Abuser of Schoolchildren and Parliament

Lord of Misrule

Deceiver of the Queen

Reducer of human rights

Destroyer of England's Green and Pleasant Land

Defender of Money lenders

The KowTower of Trump

 

The Father of Lies Himself : Bore IS Johnson

 

[Jase1982]

Quote from Johnson was that he will respect the courts decision but that he "doesn't think it was the right decision" .. is this possibly after determining the only possible next move would be an armed coup?  When will this man apologise

Edited September 24, 2019 by Jase1982

[London1971]

I think Cummings is going to take the hit for this.

[tobyjugg2]

I can imagine the conversations

 

Johnson to Cummings:

Well surely you don't expect me to take the blame. Don't worry I promise I'll see you do well out of your resignation ...

as long as you keep your mouth shut

You know you can trust me

 

Gove to Cummings:

You know what a liar he is. I'll see you right if you manage to get rid of him.

You know you can trust me.

 

Penny Mordaunt to Cummings:

I'll make you ambassador to Turkey and you'll have a good safe job with an EU member there

You know you can trust me

 

Pritti Patel to Cummings:

I'll have your passport revoked and deport you to a Syrian refugee camp if you don't do as I say.

You know you can trust me to do it.

 

 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Steve Swinford in the Telegraph [paywall] has been told that the government is expected to table a motion for a short recess for their conference next week and are working on the assumption that it will pass.

 

Interesting, they've left parliament in limbo unnecessarily for three weeks and don't have a majority, I wonder how they think they'll get this one through.

[London1971]

They really are a bit thick, that's why.

[honeybee13]

That could be unkind to thick people.

[London1971]

Odds are now 10/11 for Boris to be gone by the end of 2019,

 

It was 7/2 a couple of weeks ago.

[honeybee13]

Does that make him the shortest serving PM including the one who died?

[London1971]

Not sure, but even if he were to win a general election somehow, he's gone and pissed off more than half the country already. It won't end well

[honeybee13]

According to Wikipedia, George Canning who died in office, served 119 days and the man above him 130 days. Boris is currently on 62 days.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

[honeybee13]

There are 97/8 days left of 2019, so he could get to 160 in theory, just above the Viscount Goderich with 130 days.

[Jase1982]

Depends what happens tomorrow I guess.  What do we think opposition MP's will do as a strategy?  Jeremy Corbyn is still struggling to unite the opposition parties towards one clear goal, and we could end up stuck in another Westminster loop where the PM has to do "something".. whatever that something is.  Because would a no confidence vote carry the numbers.  MP's are unlikely to vote for a general election just yet, so it looks to me as though we'll have yet more days and weeks of Boris telling us all we're leaving on the 31st and a deal is right around the corner.  In the meantime opposition MP's will continue to harangue the government until we get up to that magical point where reality hits Westminster- there is no better deal than being in the EU, and oh bugger, we'd better ask the EU for yet another extension.  Boris ends up with egg on his face, but still comes out smiling because he can blame other MP's for thwarting brexit... there are still a lot of poor saps who actually support the silencing of parliament just to leave... no matter what leave looks like, or what it costs us.  Its akin to siding with the mugger as he beats your partner senseless and steals all your possessions.

[London1971]

They will let Boris sweat it out and dig himself deeper into a corner.  

[honeybee13]

I think an obstacle to a VONC is that MPs who are opposed to Brexit don't want Corbyn in charge.

 

I see the odds against Ken Clarke being stand in PM have gone down.

[London1971]

They won't do a VONC.  Boris is doing quite enough damage to himself, without any help. They want him to be seen grovelling to the EU for an extension, so that the Brexit party destroy him.

[Jase1982]

26 minutes ago, London1971 said:

They won't do a VONC.  Boris is doing quite enough damage to himself, without any help. They want him to be seen grovelling to the EU for an extension, so that the Brexit party destroy him.

Troubling times indeed.   If we're not careful (and I think this is why Labour are playing it particularly safe) we could end up with the Brexit party winning 30 odd seats at the next general election.

 

I know a lot of people will find this uncomfortable but the best and only solution would be a Labour government followed by a second referendum based on a range of choices, with perhaps some kind of alternative voting system.  I can't see any route forward with the Tories and any other solution involving a temporary government led by the two parents of the house is a fantasy... the only thing to move it past this stage would be for boris to resign, and following that anything after would require a vote - labour still hold the power, despite the misgivings over Corbyn.

[tobyjugg2]

Corbyn is looking to be the slightly lesser of two evils when it comes to comparison against Johnson or any of his likely successors,

but only just.

 

Corbyn is at least as sly and deceitful as Johnson, and would do everything in his power to remain in power - no matter the cost to others - just like Johnson.

He will also promote his own agendas, no matter the cost to anyone else.

 

 

Do we really want more of the same? Which is all Corbyn really actually offers.

Continued uncertainty, claims of negotiating a new deal then maybe something offered to us to vote on - unless he claims that voting him in was a carte blanche - as I'm sure he would,

and our futures in the hands of a confirmed Brexiter and demagogue?

Johnson is only a Brexiter of convenience and he's bad enough.

 

 

We need both the so called main parties destroyed, and if that means some Brexiter Mp's then so be it . Its a valid voice as long as they do the real MP ework for their constituents - which is unlikely.

 

 

 

 

 

[London1971]

3 hours ago, Jase1982 said:

we could end up with the Brexit party winning 30 odd seats at the next general election.

 

 

 

BXP need a huge % of the vote to even get 1 MP in our screwed up electoral system.  I think it's around 21% but you should check on Electoral Calculus.  The reason for this, is that they will come second in a lot of constituencies, as did UKIP in 2015.  If in the unlikely event of them reaching that number,  the Labour Party would be the largest party and would be looking to go into Coalition with the Lib Dems / SNP.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

I think it a damning condemnation of our political system and the way we vote that its only Corbyn making Johnson look like anything other than an unthinkable abomination as a PM (since he got in)

and its only Johnson making Corbyn look a possibility.

 

If there were a moderate Tory in the hot seat, they would be solidly in power, and if there was a moderate labour member in their hot seat, the Tories would never have been further from power.

 

We should all take that and vote libdem ... or Brexit party if you are that way inclined.

Scots should unquestionably vote SNP now the competent Tory has resigned.

 

 

[Jase1982]

53 minutes ago, London1971 said:

 

BXP need a huge % of the vote to even get 1 MP in our screwed up electoral system.  I think it's around 21% but you should check on Electoral Calculus.  The reason for this, is that they will come second in a lot of constituencies, as did UKIP in 2015.  If in the unlikely event of them reaching that number,  the Labour Party would be the largest party and would be looking to go into Coalition with the Lib Dems / SNP.

 

 

How many brexit MEP's did they win in the Euros?  29 MEP's from nothing, and voter turnout will be higher for a general election.

 

The arithmetic could be interesting if the Brexit party did make huge gains.  This election will come solely down to brexit, which all parties know... hence why the lib dems have come out and committed to a full revoke because they can basically say anything they like.  Labour have committed to a neutral position hoping to keep everyone happy whilst burying several extreme policies in plain sight hoping that they can do enough to win power and carry through a number of extreme policies that wouldn't win them an election under normal circumstances, and the Tories as we know will campaign on a platform of leave.

 

It could come down to a Tory/Brexit Party coalition if the vast majority of leavers vote for either party.  Something which suits Johnson and the Tories as it would be easier to come up with a confidence and supply deal with the Brexit party.  That's probably why Jobnson doesn't look too fazed, and I'll happily admit I was wrong about there not being the possibility of a deal between  farage and johnson.  I now think that is what he wants, and the opposition parties have done well to avoid an election just yet.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Jase1982

[tobyjugg2]

How many True Blue Tories would jump ship?

Not a majority by any means, but they do tend to have more guts (and other sources of income) than the labour MPs

 

It would only take the libdems to get a few good results - shame there aren't a few more by-elections due - but give corbyn a chance to drive that with de selection threats

 

Could start a significant stampede.

The libdems are also a relatively safe haven where jumpers could potentially return to their folds should it become appropriate as they would not have gone over to 'the enemy'.