Article 50 Discussion

[London1971]

4 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Here's a question

Everyone remember the kick off about where the steel was going to come from for hs2?

 

Setting aside for the moment that the Project fear bit of Vote leaves' overall Project Lie used the fear of millions of Turks coming to Britain

... yet is now selling UK core |Infrastructure to a Turkish military fund ...

mind you, probably nicer people than the ones who have bankrupted it ..

 

but adding to the questions is why a nationalistic, sovereignty touting party would sell core national infrastructure to any other nation ...

 

Bet few realise that China isn't necessarily the major steel dumper nowadays ...

Guess who is?

 

So if British Steel will no longer be a gateway to the european markets,

and if hs2 is cancelled

 

Even with the millions of taxpayers money that will go with the 'purchase'

- Where's the steel market for all turkeys spare steel?

 

Exactly, all this blustering about sovreignty from the Brexiteers, if any of them would have done any research they would have found out that most British infrastructure had been sold off the back of a barrel years ago to foreign investors.

[tobyjugg2]

Yes

But all that aside,

I thought they saw HS2 with the massive amounts of steel it would require as the driver

 

If hs2 is scrapped, or reduced ....

 

 

When you consider that the Turekish fund management company is

 

"The Turkish firm poised to buy British Steel recently announced plans to move a chemicals factory it owns from Tyneside to mainland Europe, after sounding the alarm about Brexit uncertainty.

Chemson, a Wallsend-based firm that makes additives used in the production of PVC plastic, said last week it would cease production at the site by the end of September.

 

“The decision was taken after a Europe-wide review of production capacity, which demonstrated that the group could service its markets more cost-effectively from its plants in Austria and Turkey,” Chemson told local newspaper the Chronicle when it announced the redundancies.

 

The company did not list the UK’s departure from the EU as a factor in the decision, which comes less than six years after Oyak bought the business, but accounts filed at Companies House repeatedly refer to Brexit uncertainty and the damage caused by the pound’s slump against the euro since the referendum."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/19/british-steel-turkish-rescuer-plans-to-move-chemical-firm-out-of-uk

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Everyone ready for a general election called immediately on parliaments return?

Probably with a polling date in November

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Well Boris is certainly talking like someone who's expecting an election, throwing money around to please the punters.

 

Maybe he thinks an election is a way to prorogue parliament so he can get on with what he wants to do without being held to account?

[honeybee13]

The BBC thinks Boris is about to ask the Queen to prorogue parliament for five weeks, expiring when the government think it will be too late to vote against a no deal Brexit.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49493632

[tobyjugg2]

I think he's likely to try everything

 

Call a general election with poll day after exit

Prorogation to try to prevent any Parliamentary 'interference' with what he wants to do.

 

.. He might even have another go with the henry 8th dictatorial hangover powers

 

 

All in the name of returning power to Parliament ...

Edited August 28, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

High risk strategy, it will probably work now, but there is a price to pay for everything. If Brexit goes badly, that price will be a huge electoral defeat for the Tories in 5 years.

 

Johnson only cares about being PM for another term, he knows he can get a majority, that's why he is doing this.

[tobyjugg2]

2 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Johnson only cares about being PM for another term, he knows he can get a majority, that's why he is doing this.

 

Hows that?

I know some polls say he's trashing labour .. but Mays poll said the same

 

and the libdems do appear to be flying high - perhaps not high enough to outright win, but as significant kingmakers would make a Corbyn premiership less odious

 

and a Corbyn premiership with the guaranteed fresh referendum is looking vastly LESS odious than a Johnson/ERG premiership however short Johnsons tenure might be..

.. and I despise Corbyn.

 

[London1971]

Just now, tobyjugg2 said:

 

Hows that?

I know some polls say he's trashing labour .. but Mays poll said the same

 

and the libdems do appear to be flying high - perhaps not high enough to outright win, but as significant kingmakers would make a Corbyn premiership less odious

 

and a Corbyn premiership with the guaranteed fresh referendum is looking vastly LESS odious than a Johnson/ERG premiership however short Johnsons tenure might be..

.. and I despise Corbyn.

 

I hear you,

 

But the system in this country, is very weird. I recommend going on Electoral Calculus and using their seat Swingometers.  It doesn't really take much for the Tories to end up with an overall majority, they only need  30% of the vote if, the opposition is split between Lib Dems / Labour, and they have a healthy majority.

 

I would say to go take a look on that site, i found it very informative.

[tobyjugg2]

Yes,

but I see the election run on a Brexit basis, with any Johnson policies seen as ploys at best

 

A Brexit party/Con arrangement is as likely to lose as many votes as it gains. It all depends on how many moderates get out and vote - and with johnson in power, the media IS going to be at least as pro Brexit and tolerant and unquestioning of the lies as it was during the referendum

 

 

A party in power is only really effectively there for 4-5 years, brexit is probably effectively forever (at LEAST as far as our existing terms and extras go)

Why would they want us back when the ERG has done its changes. I wouldn't.

 

 

Tory voters are perhaps more likely to consider that than Labour voters especially as Johnson and the ERG are hardly real Tories are they?

Thatcher would have had none of their antics.

 

 

It might even be that Johnson can't call a general election - he needs Corbyns support for that - but he could well give it - despite his low ratings. He does seem to want Brexit as much as he wants power.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

Yes,

 

But you need to think about it from the point of view of the average voter, just hears stuff on Telly or reads the express, mail online etc.  Not saying they are stupid, but they are not paying attention like we are,.

 

'Lets get Brexit over with, money for police, money for schools, money for the NHS, ohh and look at that Labour idiot who supports Russia and Iran'

 

That sounds pretty compelling to the average person, it's just how elections are won.  It's not just the Tories either, that's exactly why Blair massacred the Tories 3 times over.

 

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by London1971

[tobyjugg2]

4 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Yes,

 

But you need to think about it from the point of view of the average voter, just hears stuff on Telly or reads the express, mail online etc.  Not saying they are stupid, but they are not paying attention like we are,.

 

'Lets get Brexit over with, money for police, money for schools, money for the NHS, ohh and look at that Labour idiot who supports Russia and Iran'

 

That sounds pretty compelling to the average person, it's just how elections are one.  It's not just the Tories either,

 

 

that's exactly why Blair massacred the Tories 3 times over.

 

 

 

 

Ahh

The good old days

 

... relatively speaking

 

 

Come back Tony

All is foregiven

 

Edited August 28, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Bojo says there isn't going to be an election. We all believe that, do we?

[tobyjugg2]

Can't believe a word he says

 

 

... makes Trump seem a rational honest man.

 

 

... relatively speaking

Edited August 28, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

I so wish I was wrong , I really do.  That some heroic Anti Brexit alliance is going to come and rescue us all,  unfortunately that opportunity has long gone. It's a no deal, and we are all going to have to suck it up.

[honeybee13]

This is from John McDonnell on Twitter.

 

'Nobody is fooled that this is a Spending Review. It's a one off pre election panic driven stunt budget. Each spending announcement is exposed as inadequate & whole areas of spending needs like local councils & addressing child poverty are ignored. This is not serious government.'

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

I think we are exchanging positions London

 

Orbiting around a block (oops Freudian slip - black hole) hole

 

 

 

Yes HB

but McDonnell said Corbyn is the most honest, open and inclusive person he knows

... so his judgement is questionable and limited at best

 

He is right on this particular occasion though ....

Edited August 28, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

I don't agree with him all the time by any means, TJ, but he is right this time, as you say.

[honeybee13]

Bercow's not happy.

 

'this move represents a constitutional outrage. However it is dressed up it is blindingly obvious that the purpose of prorogation now would be to stop Parliament debating Brexit and performing its duty'

[London1971]

This is populism 101 from the Trump handbook

[London1971]

The line from the Queen  (The film) springs to mind when she is talking to Tony Blair at the end.

 

'Enjoy it while it last, you won't always be this popular'

 

That is the only consolation I can take from this, is that one day that disgusting man, Boris Johnson will be voted out.

[tobyjugg2]

I think that johnson is relying on the Tories and others fears of Corbyn getting in power preventing a no confidence vote

 

I also think the permanence and massive damage Johnsons' Brexit will do to the UK mitigates that quite a bit, and that along with the simple fact that a no confidence vote on Corbyn is a likely probability soon after  Brexit is averted will further mitigate those fears.

 

 

Corbyn would try and juggle it to extend his premiership ... but if he doesn't deliver, the no confidence vote will happen sooner and we may simply end up back where we were a couple of months ago but with an extension and a much stronger libdem presence in Parliament at the expense of both Corbyn and Cons

 

Of course the British media are massively to blame for this and the BBC needs to be gone.

 

They may be nominally 'neutral' but their tolerance and largely unquestioning (very mildly at most) acceptance of blatant lies has ended any credibility they had remaining after Saville and the fat cat pay awards.

Let them see if people will pay for it rather them being just another tax on the population

 

[brassnecked]

Once in Corbyn would be very difficult to push out.

[tobyjugg2]

I disagree

 

I think he would quickly generate vote of no confidence ... perhaps on a regular basis until one suceeded.

.. and its perhaps the only way to get him out as leader of the labour party.

 

In any case - 5 years tops to a general election.

Corbyn couldn't change that however much he's like to - else Johnson would pip him to the post anyway.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

There's a new petition against proroguing parliament that's growing fast.

 

I don't suppose the government cares but I wonder if this is a prelude to demonstrations on the street.