Article 50 Discussion

[brassnecked]

They are talking about a transition period, there isn't one if No Deal, only if ratify WA.

[honeybee13]

Who's talking about a transition please, BN?

[tobyjugg2]

I dont think Mays agreement would pass even without the backstop

 

and I dont think there is a chance in hell the EU will back down on that. They already think they gave a lot in agreeing what was agreed.

 

Unlike the UK, the EU IS preparing and IS largely prepared for no deal.

[tobyjugg2]

Interesting that Corbyn and Clucksky are now largely alone in the Labour Party in their no referendum/Brexit/get me in power and trust me stance (whatever he says)

 

Corbyn is as untrustworthy as Johnson and IS the real enabler of a hard Brexit

 

I think its too late for Labour to change their tune now without some verydramatic Labour driven Remain drive and activity.

No one would believe Corbyn wouldn't wheedle out of it otherwise.

[London1971]

I think Johnson and his band of merry masochists know damn well that not having a backstop, will destroy the integrity of the Single Market.  Border infrastructure would take years, if not decades to put in place, it ain't going to be there on November 1st that's for sure.  

 

Deliveries, cross border I'm sure will carry on as normal, over the hundreds of unprotected crossing points, with a total lack of any.checks. In fact the only way for the Single Market not to lose credibility would be to throw Ireland out of it. 

 

Then if the Irish border gets special treatment, cue every country from Azerbijan to Zambia asking for the same.  This is the best chance ever for Johnson, and ERG  types to ruin the European Project, IMO that's what they are aiming for.

 

[tobyjugg2]

One could be forgiven for concluding that Johnson wants a return of the troubles in Ireland

.. perhaps to take peoples focus off all the other crap that is and is going to happen ...

 

Still, re-unification of Ireland in the EU would solve a lot of it with Britain(England + Wales) relatively simply treated as a none EU country

 

 

With the added Bonus that it will poke the DUP in the eye and utterly trash the Tory party hard bought majority.

 

[unclebulgaria67]

The question is whether this thread will reach 100 pages before Brexit happens ?

 

The answer is probably yes, as I cannot see Brexit happening this year.

 

Parliament won't agree to a no deal Brexit and if necessary, there are enough Tory MP's who will support a no confidence vote. It is whether, it is Jeremy Corbyn that leads Labour in a short term Government just to delay Brexit and call an election or another MP such as Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman comes forward to lead a majority of MP's in a Government purely to deal with Brexit.

 

HM the Queen will be dragged into this mess, as she has to agree to any new PM forming a Government.

 

A General Election might not resolve Brexit, as the result might still be a hung Parliament with no majority for any Brexit option. So we could end up with another referendum, after another Brexit negotiation.

 

I think it would have been easier to have put Mays deal to a referendum. The question would have been, do you agree with the deal negotiated, yes or no. If the answer was yes, then that was part 1 of Brexit done. If the answer was no, then a further referendum on options could have been held.

 

 

[London1971]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

 

With the added Bonus that it will poke the DUP in the eye and utterly trash the Tory party hard bought majority.

 

This has trashed the Tory party long term, maybe they will win this election, but next or the one after it's the end for them.

[London1971]

1 hour ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

The question is whether this thread will reach 100 pages before Brexit happens ?

 

The answer is probably yes, as I cannot see Brexit happening this year.

 

Parliament won't agree to a no deal Brexit and if necessary, there are enough Tory MP's who will support a no confidence vote. It is whether, it is Jeremy Corbyn that leads Labour in a short term Government just to delay Brexit and call an election or another MP such as Ken Clarke or Harriet Harman comes forward to lead a majority of MP's in a Government purely to deal with Brexit.

 

HM the Queen will be dragged into this mess, as she has to agree to any new PM forming a Government.

 

A General Election might not resolve Brexit, as the result might still be a hung Parliament with no majority for any Brexit option. So we could end up with another referendum, after another Brexit negotiation.

 

I think it would have been easier to have put Mays deal to a referendum. The question would have been, do you agree with the deal negotiated, yes or no. If the answer was yes, then that was part 1 of Brexit done. If the answer was no, then a further referendum on options could have been held.

 

 

As much as I would like to think you are right, I disagree.  It's too much to do in too little time in order to stop a no deal.  Parliament isn't going to be recalled, MP's are on holiday, basically while Rome burns. 

 

Buy toilet paper, make sure your petrol tank is brimmed, have some cash for October 31st, maybe nothing will happen, but I remember the panic buying in the 2000 fuel crisis.  You only need to look at the financial crash in 2008 to see how close we were to a  run on the banks.

 

 

[brassnecked]

@London1971 yes take precautions, and the full tank of fuel isn't a bad idea, the Legacy media are fomenting panic, so buying in a couple of essentials  extra with the shop rather than a panic stockpile should be OK.  Next one to circulate?  Could be Trump wants to buy the UK as Denmark won't sell him Greenland.  Mind you that UK/US Trade deal might do that in all but name.

[London1971]

I'm just going to build up slowly, and have been.  Got a big old freezer so have been filling that up gradually.  I think it's not because of actual shortages, but rather panic buying that will cause problems, especially bread which ironically is all produced in the UK.

 

As for Trump, just got to expect that crap from him I guess, no trade deals will be happening anyway if the Good Friday agreement is put at risk.  Besides,what Boris Johnson is suggesting about no backstop and no hard border is even crazier than anything that Trump has ever said or done.

 

Tories are trying to destroy, and there is no plan for what comes next, there will be a terrible day of reckoning for the them at some point that will make Tony Blair's 1997 victory look like chicken feed. Sadly that won't be until the country has been ruined.

 

 

 

 

 

[brassnecked]

27 minutes ago, London1971 said:

I'm just going to build up slowly, and have been.  Got a big old freezer so have been filling that up gradually.  I think it's not because of actual shortages, but rather panic buying that will cause problems, especially bread which ironically is all produced in the UK.

 

As for Trump, just got to expect that crap from him I guess, no trade deals will be happening anyway if the Good Friday agreement is put at risk.  Besides,what Boris Johnson is suggesting about no backstop and no hard border is even crazier than anything that Trump has ever said or done.

 

Tories are trying to destroy, and there is no plan for what comes next, there will be a terrible day of reckoning for the them at some point that will make Tony Blair's 1997 victory look like chicken feed. Sadly that won't be until the country has been ruined.

 

 

 

 

 

The Beadle, and many of the ERG, are involved with Disaster Capitalists, and Hedge Funds poised to scoop up and asset strip  UK companies bankrupted by Brexit here and possibly some  in the EU.  Shankar Singham is selling Snake Oil impossibilities with the AAC, and the whole ERG cabal are out for personal gain.

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, brassnecked said:

Next one to circulate?  Could be Trump wants to buy the UK as Denmark won't sell him Greenland.  Mind you that UK/US Trade deal might do that in all but name.

 

 

You beat me too it

The American Psycho has call ed off his state visit hasn't he.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/21/trump-state-visit-cancellation-over-greenland-shocks-danes

 

" “Denmark is a very special country with incredible people, but based on Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s comments, that she would have no interest in discussing the purchase of Greenland, I will be postponing our meeting scheduled in two weeks for another time,” Trump tweeted on Tuesday. "

 

" “It shows why we now more than ever should consider [fellow] European Union countries as our closest allies. The man is unpredictable,” said Morten Østergaard, leader of the Danish Social Liberal party. “Reality surpasses imagination.” "

 

 

 

I had figured out Johnsons plan but BN gazzumped me in part

 

Johnson is intending to sell NI and Scotland to Trump to get rid of his problems.

Trumps offered him 6 boatloads of Kentucky Khlorined Chicken, for each,

and he'll throw in a boatload of hormone sauce steaks to also take the NHS off Johnsons hands

 

Trump thinks its a great deal. So does Johnson.

 

 

 

 

 

Seem the latest  Corbyn rating poll?

Makes an election more likely.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll/johnsons-party-takes-14-percent-point-lead-over-labour-kantar-poll-idUKKCN1VB0RU

 

although I personally think Kantar is one of the most 'dubious of the pollsters.

 

 

[London1971]

Johnson is way worse than Trump, he's actually a lot better at Gaslighting and blame shifting than him.

[tobyjugg2]

So corbyn calls a cross party tactics meeting, where the 'only option'  to  'do anything it takes' he offers ..

is to give himself a Carte Blanche caretaker PM position

- to guarantee that more time is wasted gaining no agreement - hence gifting Johnson with the best opportunity possible to do what he wants.

 

 

As Johnson is given 30 days to not come up with an Irish  (any)  border solution

... as it wasn't possible in 3 years and apparently wont be possible in 2 years more ...

- Despite the French doing their customs changes well in time and without drama ...

 

 

As  Tory Party Chairman James Cleverly demonstrates his commitment to the Brexit cause by telephone which neither Uk law nor being involved in a 70mph+ incident on a motorway slip road can interrupt for more than a few seconds ....

Now thats commitment.

 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/21/corbyn-arranges-all-party-tactics-meeting-to-fight-no-deal-brexit

 

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/angela-merkel-boris-johnson-brussels-days-brexit-plan_uk_5d5d78cde4b03b44f41610b3

 

https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/james-cleverly-m11-crash-phone-16792398

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7381495/Tory-party-chairman-James-Cleverly-facing-police-probe-car-crash-M11.html

 

 

 

Edited August 22, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

So there is Boris in Biarritz, still trying to tell all sides what they want to hear, including 'We can easily cope' with a no deal Brexit.

 

Moving one, there's an interesting article by Chris Patten in Project Syndicate.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/britain-brexit-failed-state-by-chris-patten-2019-08

[brassnecked]

 Here is one that can cause a great deal of chaos and harm.  Digital data Flows between a No Deal UK and the EU 

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/european-institute/sites/european-institute/files/eu-uk_data_flows_brexit_and_no-deal.pdf

 

and here:

 

https://www.channelpro.co.uk/advice/11472/uk-firms-may-soon-find-it-impossible-to-legally-receive-data-from-the-eu?_mout=1&utm_campaign=alphr_cloud_newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

[hightail]

On 21/08/2019 at 10:34, brassnecked said:

yes take precautions, and the full tank of fuel isn't a bad idea,

I knew there was a good reason for having an electric vehicle - assuming electricity supplies won't be disrupted and I'll still be able to charge it.

 

I'm not stocking my freezer and cupboards so much because it's the perishables I'm bothered about and believe will be the problem.  Tinned, dried and frozen stuff may be subject to price rises I suppose - simple law of supply and demand.

[London1971]

I actually don't believe that food shortages are going to happen, or nothing particularly noticeable.  Also Tesco et al have agreed many food / fuel prices for 6 months ahead, so price rises will not happen as quickly as you might think.  Also not to underestimate, supermarkets (as they always have done) being clever and taking a loss on essentials Bread, Milk, Petrol etc. Petrol price wars.

 

It's also quite possible that a No Deal Brexit is already priced in to the exchange rate, and that this is where it's going to be long term,

 

We could be lucky, then we might not be. Nobody knows, that's why it's so crazy to play stupid poker like this.

[tobyjugg2]

6 hours ago, London1971 said:

I actually don't believe that food shortages are going to happen, or nothing particularly noticeable.  Also Tesco et al have agreed many food / fuel prices for 6 months ahead, so price rises will not happen as quickly as you might think.  Also not to underestimate, supermarkets (as they always have done) being clever and taking a loss on essentials Bread, Milk, Petrol etc. Petrol price wars.

 

It's also quite possible that a No Deal Brexit is already priced in to the exchange rate, and that this is where it's going to be long term,

 

We could be lucky, then we might not be. Nobody knows, that's why it's so crazy to play stupid poker like this.

 

 

 

There wont be shortages for those that can afford the increased prices due to lower availability.

 

 

There are multiple 'values' for the GBP

 

No deal brexit is not completely factored in to any yet,

although its probably nearest being factored in with the GBP as an international currency competing with the Dollar, where it is effectively already close to parity with the Euro and its use is apparently at its lowest point ever.

 

Even if we revoke article 50 there has already been significant damage to the GBP as an international currency - much of which is possibly reversible,

the damage to the UKs union and world standing is far greater.

Nowhere near as much damage as a hard brexit though

 

No deal is not fully factored into anything yet.

Even the moves of assets and finance to the EU - much of which is still secret.

[honeybee13]

I don't think I've seen anything like this in UK politics ever.

 

A group of rebels from all parties have agreed to try to use legislation to stop Boris from suspending Parliament for about five weeks so that no deal can be forced through by default and with almost no debate by our representatives.

 

Number 10 calls them undemocratic.

 

And there's been a meeting at Church House where Parliament met during WWII about having an alternative parliament if the normal one is prorogued.

 

Unbelievable.

[London1971]

'Number 10' are taking a leaf out of the Trump 'how to Gaslight a whole population' manual.

[honeybee13]

Aren't they just? Plus putting loyal Brexiteers into the Lords, a bit like Trump has appointed supreme court judges.

[brassnecked]

Swinson has made herself very unpopular as she said you could vote again and again as per EU MO and won't accept any result but Remain.  Lucas the Princess of darkness also is more of a hindrance than help as far as mainstream voters are concerned. There is very little they can do to stop Johnson in reality, just make a load of noise and spout ban no deal which as it's Default will be difficult

[tobyjugg2]

Here's a question

Everyone remember the kick off about where the steel was going to come from for hs2?

 

Setting aside for the moment that the Project fear bit of Vote leaves' overall Project Lie used the fear of millions of Turks coming to Britain

... yet is now selling UK core |Infrastructure to a Turkish military fund ...

mind you, probably nicer people than the ones who have bankrupted it ..

 

but adding to the questions is why a nationalistic, sovereignty touting party would sell core national infrastructure to any other nation ...

 

Bet few realise that China isn't necessarily the major steel dumper nowadays ...

Guess who is?

 

So if British Steel will no longer be a gateway to the european markets,

and if hs2 is cancelled

 

Even with the millions of taxpayers money that will go with the 'purchase'

- Where's the steel market for all turkeys spare steel?