Article 50 Discussion

[Jase1982]

The Lib Dems only won because Plaid Cymru and the Green stepped down though.  Makes me laugh that 12000 people still voted for a dodgy Tory who had been found guilty of ripping them off.  I do wonder what would make people change their voting pattern!

[London1971]

It does re enforce that the results of a GE could be highly unpredictable.  Lib Dems could quite possibly end up King Makers in a hung parliament, not good news for a Boris No deal.

[honeybee13]

8 minutes ago, Jase1982 said:

The Lib Dems only won because Plaid Cymru and the Green stepped down though.  Makes me laugh that 12000 people still voted for a dodgy Tory who had been found guilty of ripping them off.  I do wonder what would make people change their voting pattern!

 

Some people are seeing the LibDem vote as an anti-Brexit one.

[fletch70]

9 minutes ago, Jase1982 said:

The Lib Dems only won because Plaid Cymru and the Green stepped down though.  

 I am not sure just how much evidence there is for that - both Tory and Labour lost huge numbers of votes 

 

In 2017 PC only got 1400 votes on a higher turnout and greens did not stand - you are assuming all PC votes went to the LD 

[honeybee13]

I noticed the bottom two results. UKIP are really struggling.

 

Monster Raving Loony 334

 

UKIP 242.

[Jase1982]

33 minutes ago, fletch70 said:

 I am not sure just how much evidence there is for that - both Tory and Labour lost huge numbers of votes 

 

In 2017 PC only got 1400 votes on a higher turnout and greens did not stand - you are assuming all PC votes went to the LD 

 

But the majority was only 1425 this time around.... Given the choice of three remain parties the Lib Dems would have struggled to win.  It's a victory yes, but in order to defeat the Tories political parties are going to have to do this up and down the country.

[honeybee13]

Something I just read said that Brecon voted leave, but yesterday over 54% of the votes were for Remain parties. I can't say I understand the maths atm, but it's an interesting swing.

[brassnecked]

Looks like a GE would lead to a hung Parliament, Plaid are off on their own Welsh Independence journey now, they had a big march with 8000 attending in Caernarfon ( The true Capital of Wales) Greens are sort of mistrusted by the farmers, and the Lib Dem vote was a definite protest against the corrupt Tory, had Plaid and Greens stood lbour might have won the seat, but then political specualtion is just that, pie in the sky might be/have been.  In Conwy, people are after deselecting Aberconwy MP Guto Bebb who left Plaid to get elected, and David Jones who is a member of Rees-Mogg, The Beadles's ERG.

[brassnecked]

total vote for Leave Parties 50.3%, so very close to call, however the Welsh assembly was brought in on a slimmer Majority of 50.22% No Deal is a very dangerous game.

[honeybee13]

BN, are you talking about the Brecon vote or Wales nationally with the 50.3%

[brassnecked]

 Brecon, the 50.22% figure was for the introduction of the Welsh Assembly, a Labour dominated disaster. So Wales is split with Labour mainly picking up the tribal, vote as in vote  like Nain a Taid  (Gran and grand dad) in the Valleys. North Wales in more Tory, but people are fed up of them, however many  are not comfortable with the other parties. Labour dominated Conwy Council and are renowned as a bunch of dictators,  Council Tax was raised by 9.6% this year.

[fletch70]

1 hour ago, Jase1982 said:

 

But the majority was only 1425 this time around.... Given the choice of three remain parties the Lib Dems would have struggled to win.  It's a victory yes, but in order to defeat the Tories political parties are going to have to do this up and down the country.

Are you getting confused with raw numbers and percentages. Remember in 2017 the turnout was 74.6  % with PC receiving 3.1% of the vote. In the recent by election the turnout was 59.6 with the margin of victory 4.5% so a greater difference than you may think. 

 

It is very easy to try to spin this as a win because PC stood aside but who knows where those votes went to and even if they all went to LD it would not account for the win

[fletch70]

1 hour ago, honeybee13 said:

Something I just read said that Brecon voted leave, but yesterday over 54% of the votes were for Remain parties. I can't say I understand the maths atm, but it's an interesting swing.

 

 

Well first of all, do not confuse Labour with a rain party - they do not know which way is up at the moment.

 

I also think, and have heard, while maybe they did vote leave, the type of leave was not a hard Brexit which will devastate their faming industry and if that happens the knock on effect .

 

I do not believe, as Boris does, that  the EU will roll over - if they do then that will be the break up of the EU as there are strong leave factions in other countries as well - Italy, Greece etc 

[Jase1982]

1 hour ago, fletch70 said:

Are you getting confused with raw numbers and percentages. Remember in 2017 the turnout was 74.6  % with PC receiving 3.1% of the vote. In the recent by election the turnout was 59.6 with the margin of victory 4.5% so a greater difference than you may think. 

 

It is very easy to try to spin this as a win because PC stood aside but who knows where those votes went to and even if they all went to LD it would not account for the win

Surely it only really matters what happened yesterday, and the greens/PC were clearly worried the Tories would regain the seat if they both stood.  The voter turnout was lower, but what about the people that didn't vote this time around, maybe some of these would have voted either green or PC.

[London1971]

This is a red flag for Johnson, that a GE is far too risky right now.  Who ever got the bigger share of the remain / leave vote means nothing, this time around it shows that alliances and tactical voting will be rife.  Also from a Tory point of view, writing off Labour is a very dangerous assumption to make.

[brassnecked]

Parliament and all the Parties have messed Brexit up, so all are guilty of shenanigans that mean nothing whilst the clock runs down.  There is nothing Parliament or Gina Miller can do to prevent a No Deal, it's the default position if no agreement reached by deadline.

[fletch70]

3 hours ago, Jase1982 said:

Surely it only really matters what happened yesterday, and the greens/PC were clearly worried the Tories would regain the seat if they both stood.  The voter turnout was lower, but what about the people that didn't vote this time around, maybe some of these would have voted either green or PC.

Indeed or maybe they would have all voted Tory. As you say it’s what happened yesterday and the percentage of the vote indicated a greater majority than the numbers may indicate 

[fletch70]

2 hours ago, brassnecked said:

Parliament and all the Parties have messed Brexit up, so all are guilty of shenanigans that mean nothing whilst the clock runs down.  There is nothing Parliament or Gina Miller can do to prevent a No Deal, it's the default position if no agreement reached by deadline.

Actually yes Parliament can stop a no deal Brexit . Unlikely but a fact. Johnson would makes the Tories unelectable for a generation if he let no deal happen 

[king12345]

I'm already packing.

Damn, I should've renewed my citizenship rather than throw away my passport

[Jase1982]

10 minutes ago, fletch70 said:

Actually yes Parliament can stop a no deal Brexit . Unlikely but a fact. Johnson would makes the Tories unelectable for a generation if he let no deal happen 

How would they stop it if it's the default position?  To my mind all these indicative votes they've been having are a waste of time because they ignore the facts and assert that we have some degree of control.  Voting to not allow a no deal is meaningless surely?  Because if we leave with no withdrawal agreement in place that is the default position.

 

The only way of stopping it has to be another vote and that hasn't gained enough traction.

[fletch70]

6 minutes ago, Jase1982 said:

How would they stop it if it's the default position?  To my mind all these indicative votes they've been having are a waste of time because they ignore the facts and assert that we have some degree of control.  Voting to not allow a no deal is meaningless surely?  Because if we leave with no withdrawal agreement in place that is the default position.

 

The only way of stopping it has to be another vote and that hasn't gained enough traction.

The way they stop it is to revoke article 50. Parliament and not the public invoked it therefore they can revoke it. 

 

As I said, unlikely but possible. I actually think the public would prefer that to no deal so maybe another way forward would be an extension and then get public approval for remain or no deal. 

[brassnecked]

Actually they would need to depose and get rid of Johnson,  and replace him with a Remainer and Remain Cabinet there is no other way to force a Revoke as it stands No Deal is Default and Johnson, The Beadle and the others can just let the clock run down.

[fletch70]

24 minutes ago, brassnecked said:

Actually they would need to depose and get rid of Johnson,  and replace him with a Remainer and Remain Cabinet there is no other way to force a Revoke as it stands No Deal is Default and Johnson, The Beadle and the others can just let the clock run down.

Not sure I agree with you. Need to get a vote through to debate it then a vote to revoke. Parliament and not Johnson hold sovereignty although I grant you it would probably trigger an election 

[brassnecked]

Its all shaky ground Fletch, might be worth checking out eureferendum.com for some info on various aspects.  One thing is sure EEA/EFTA was only sane way out but the Politicians were so far up themselves arguing on the impossible that MayBot had the dreaded WA foisted on her.

[Jase1982]

34 minutes ago, fletch70 said:

Not sure I agree with you. Need to get a vote through to debate it then a vote to revoke. Parliament and not Johnson hold sovereignty although I grant you it would probably trigger an election 

Nothing triggers an election though.. only the PM can call an early election.  That's what's wrong with our democracy.  We vote for a party but all the power resides in number ten... they say vote for the party, not the person but that's nonsense.

 

Cant see anything changing dramatically until the numbers do.