Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

It's Boris vs Hunt now. Lots of rumours of Boris's backers 'lending' votes to Hunt because they didn't want to go up against Gove in the final two.

 

Europe think we're heading for no deal.

[renegadeimp]

Thats what boris wants. A no deal,  and then sell everything off to his best mate trump.

Trumps even said he wants everything on the table to broker a deal, and boris agrees with him.   EVERYTHING, including the NHS

[hightail]

So it will be an unholy alliance of Boris, Trump and Putin.  Out of those which one will hold little or no power?  Is this what's meant by 'taking back control'.

 

I should think Trump and Putin are agreeing the carve up right now.

Edited June 21, 2019 by hightail

[honeybee13]

Well, in that scenario it won't be the UK in control, I agree.

[tobyjugg2]

I think HB hit the nail on the head with the Johnson/Farage match

 

The Tories under anyone are extremely unlikely to win any general election.

[sounds like} Hunt has said that theres no way he would call one.

 

Johnson Campaigning with Farage .....

 

Both are 'pals' of Trump

Johnson IS linked with Bannon and Farage ...

 

 

There would appear to be in the order of 25 labour MP's who would vote for a no deal exit, and have indicated they would vote to prevent the overthrow of of a Tory hard Brexiter.

 

I think there are far more than that Tories who WOULD vote to prevent a no deal Brexit, but there are at least 70 Tories who would vote for a no deal Brexit.- possibly more.

 

 

 

.. and of course Corbyn has now started the process to deselect any Labour Mp's who aren't Corbynites ready for the general election.

 

[London1971]

1 minute ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

 

There would appear to be in the order of 25 labour MP's who would vote for a no deal exit, and have

 

Yup they would not oppose a no deal, but ... Almost impossible to imagine they wouldn't vote to bring down a Tory Government.  

[tobyjugg2]

8 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Yup they would not oppose a no deal, but ... Almost impossible to imagine they wouldn't vote to bring down a Tory Government.  

 

I get the distinct impression they would not vote to bring down a government thats promising Brexit deal or no deal until after Oct and a hard Brexit.

 

I don't doubt that would suit Corbyn too.

[honeybee13]

Did anyone see the article about the Observer being given footage of Steve Bannon talking about how he helped Boris write a speech about his resignation? 

 

Boris is denying it,  I just hope that someone confronts him with the film clips. 

[London1971]

But taking an average of current voting intention polls in the General Election, putting them into a Swingometer (seat calculator) leaves Labour  46 short of a majority. Even though the Brexit party takes 20% of the vote, they don't come out with any MP's, but the Lib Dems are massively increased.   Labour's most likely option for power is a Lab / Lib Dem / Plaid coalition, surely they must be thinking about this when looking to be pursuing a hard Brexit. 

 

Perhaps not a wise thing when needing to court the Lib Dems or even the SNP.

Edited June 25, 2019 by London1971

[London1971]

4 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Did anyone see the article about the Observer being given footage of Steve Bannon talking about how he helped Boris write a speech about his resignation? 

 

Boris is denying it,  I just hope that someone confronts him with the film clips. 

 

When Boris opens his mouth he lies. The people with the power to elect him, don't care.

[tobyjugg2]

Lets not forget that the EU is getting fed up with this.

 

Without some good reason for the EU to give an extension - a darn good reason,

There will likely be veto's - France at least and they are unlikely to be alone.

 

Probably what Johnson, Farage and Corbyn are hoping for.

'Its not our fault, its those damn Europeans thgat hate us. They just wouldn't give us an extension'

 

 

I think that it likely both Labour and the Tories will get similar results in a general election as in the European elections.

They are doing nothing to change the peoples opinions, and much to confirm those negative opinions.

I can't imagine me voting Labour (or Tory) in any circumstances with Corbyn now. That is from a lifelong labour voter (apart from a couple of times in locals councils for some good people - even to stop Johnson.

 

 

Oh

and that tactical voting advice seems to have been wrong in my area(not 100% certain though)

Tactical votes should have voted libs not green.

 

 

 

 

 

[London1971]

I think it will be different in a General election. Brexit party votes do not equal Brexit party MP's because of our weird voting system (remember UKIP in 2015).  Lib Dem votes will win them marginals (eg Oxford West in 2018) with tactical voting.  Plus turnout in a general election is always far greater.

 

And certainly the EU could kick us out, but it's hard to see them wanting to look like the bad guy here, and Macron has to talk tough because he is desperately unpopular at home. 

[hightail]

1 hour ago, tobyjugg2 said:

I can't imagine me voting Labour (or Tory) in any circumstances with Corbyn now. That is from a lifelong labour voter

Same here from a habitual Tory voter until a few years ago.  If we're all this disillusioned with the self-serving lowlifes that now inhabit Westminster we have a real issue deciding where to place our mark on a ballot paper?

[honeybee13]

This looks tricky for Boris.

 

As I understand it he can't guarantee a frictionless border, but the US Congress has said it will block a trade deal with the UK if Ireland's security is affected. The article also says a trade deal will take at least 4-5 years to agree even wothout objections.

 

How is Bojo going to replace trade with Europe over those years?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/31/brexit-mess-with-good-friday-and-well-block-uk-trade-deal-us-politicians-warn

[tobyjugg2]

Stop using logic and reason HB. Thats not what Brexit is about for the Brexiters.

 

Trump will do us,

... the best biggest deal ever

... from his prison cell

 

That is: the best biggest deal ever for his bleached chicken and hormone injected beef selling US funders

.. and being as we will be outsiders breaching the EU's market rules and regs because of any US deal, it will only be at a 70% premium despite us being a captive market - as they like us so much.

 

 

We have actually finished off paying back the US for the last time they gave us a 'great deal'

Haven't we?

 

 

 

 

All that aside - it is one of the crucial points you are highlighting there HB

Edited July 31, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Which great deal was that, TJ?

[tobyjugg2]

over simplified summary

https://www.quora.com/Following-WWII-did-the-US-consider-forgiving-the-debt-owed-by-the-UK-to-the-US-If-not-why-not

 

Included was the priceless bases we had to effectively give them

.. including evicting British citizens from Islands so the yanks could have them for military bases..

(see also recent news items related to' windrush')

 

addendum

This descibes the US treachery better

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan

 

 

"At the start of the war, Britain had spent the money that they did have in normal payments for materiel under the "US cash-and-carry" scheme. Basing rights were also traded for equipment, e.g., the Destroyers for Bases Agreement, but by 1941 Britain was no longer able to finance cash payments and Lend-Lease was introduced. Lend Lease aid did not have to be paid back, but the other loans did.

 

Large quantities of goods were in Britain or in transit when Washington suddenly and unexpectedly terminated Lend-Lease on 21 August 1945. The British economy had been heavily geared towards war production (around 55% GDP) and had drastically reduced its exports.

 

The UK therefore relied on Lend-Lease imports to obtain essential consumer commodities such as food while it could no longer afford to pay for these items using export profits. The end of lend-lease thus came as a great economic shock."

 

The shape of any US deals

Edited July 31, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

Anyone who thinks the EU is our enemy and the USA is our friend - is seriously mistaken.

[London1971]

In about 10 years time, there will be millions of younger voters, watching these events, who will take revenge on the Tory's for Brexit. Today 13 - 17 year olds, are watching now, combined with the loss of older Tories, and hopefully someone competent in charge of Labour will doom the Tories, long term.

[tobyjugg2]

 

I think both Johnson and corbyn DON'T want a fresh referendum, as it would almost certainly be remain despite 80% of media being pro Brexit.

 

Corbyn wants a general election as he thinks the Tory chaos and policies (behind the spin) and especially Johnson will make him the least worst option.

I don't think he'll win - not even biggest minority

 

Johnson wants Brexit - then a general election as late as possible - but I think parliament will prevent that thank God - and would force a no confidence vote to do that

 

... so I think Johnson will try - then call a general election while while Labour under corbyn is at its weakest and most unelectable.

Relying on that and the split remain vote to give him a majority.

I don;t think he'll get a majority, although he could easily end up as the largest minority.

 

The lib-dems will then be in a position of negotiating a coalition with Labour - unless Johnson agrees (- he might if he has the libdems to blame.and power depends on it)  to a fresh referendum.

Thats unlikely to go well given Corbyns jihad mentality - but is probably the best we can hope for.

 

 

 

 

Of course, the trouble with any deal agreed :

with Johnson he'd welch on it

- Corbyn would twist it to suit his religion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[tobyjugg2]

 

and of course, while all this is happening, someone needs to manage to get an extention agreed against Johnson, Corbyn et als opposition.....

[honeybee13]

The government's majority is down to one after the LibDems won Brecon and Radnor.

[London1971]

Excellent, but sadly not enough to stop a No Deal Brexit. It's also interesting to see how Labour were Decimated.

[fletch70]

It would be really interesting to know just who switched votes, where did the swing to the Lib Dems come from and the same about Brexit. I suspect both parties gained seats from each of the two major parties.

 

What it does perhaps show is that if there were an election before the referendum then unless the Tories and the Brexit Party split the seats, i.e Tories stood aside in some labour strongholds then the anti anti Brexit (as it stands) coalition could be formed.

 

It never ceases to amaze me how partisan alignment has fallen by the wayside and how , in particular working class people vote for right wing parties - although I suppose when we look at history nothing should surprise me

 

on a side note- if you haven't watched Years and Years on I player you really should - not only does it have the excellent Russel Tovey and Anne Reid in it, it is a stark warning about what could happen. 

[London1971]

 

Some good analysis here, on Radio 4 this morning

 

The elections experts, John Curtice, says the result of the byelection should make Boris Johnson cautious about going for a snap election.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme he said the vote showed the Tories were enjoying a “Boris bounce” but only at the expense of the Brexit party.

He said: “In an early general election at the moment at least, the Conservatives would be at risk of losing.”

He added: “When thinking about the prospects for an early general election. If the Liberal Democrats could pick up 40 or 50 seats, winning a large overall majority, which seems to be the point of a snap election, would become rather more difficult for the Conservatives would otherwise be the case.”