Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

The parliamentary arithmetic could be complicated with a no confidence vote, as Jase says.  You would need Tories to vote against the party and even then,  Labour leavers might vote with the government. 

 

What depresses me is that party comes before country. 

[London1971]

Maybe , maybe not

 

But there will be a day of reckoning for the Tories by 2022

[hightail]

The way the selection of a new leader is going it's pretty clear to me that they are very much moving right and into the pocket of Trump.  What's so sad is that so many who think this is a good idea are not moneyed or even in secure employment.  They're the very people who will suffer if (when) there's a dilution of workers' rights.  The likes of Boris will trouser extra profits while idiots in low paid jobs with no security who think the Tory stance on immigration will guarantee them a council house are going to be very disappointed.

[honeybee13]

It's looking more likely that Boris will be the next PM, which I find very worrying. I wonder how long he'll last before blowing up?

 

Meanwhile, I've just read that Farage is offering to form an electoral pact with Boris, which is even more terrifying.

[Jase1982]

Not sure why Boris would join forces with farage or why farage would want to either because as I see it having Boris as pm is just going to push more Tory voters towards the brexit party, or across to other fringe parties.  He's such a divisive character I'm not sure the Tory party have properly understood the general feeling amongst voters.  And unlike trump I don't get the feeling that swathes and swathes of disillusioned workers are going to vote for him at the next general electio even if he no doubt promises to restore their lost jobs.  Especially if he tanks the economy by leading us towards a no deal scenario that directly affects workers.

[London1971]

Farage will run away if Brexit goes wrong, not his style to actually take responsibility and try to fix things.

[honeybee13]

That makes me think of his swift exit via a back door after the Peterborough election, London.

[London1971]

It is interesting though to see in yesterday's debate that they all somehow think the EU are going to change their mind and re negotiate the agreement for them, when they refused to for Theresa May. Especially Boris who has made a career of pretty much offending all of them and threatening to withhold the money that we owe the EU.

[hightail]

I doubt they really do believe it.  They believe the party membership will believe it - and they already know they'll believe just about anything.

[honeybee13]

Good point, hightail.

 

And assuming Boris wins, how is he going to explain to party members that the EU won't renegotiate? Or doesn't he care because the decision will be back with Parliament?

[hightail]

He'll just write something on the side of a bus and that will make everything OK.  The very fact that Boris is so far ahead in the running is proof that they can get away with just about anything so will continue to lie. Seriously, it's pretty obvious they regard the electorate with contempt.

[honeybee13]

I know.

 

I think I remember that the morning after the referendum Boris or Nigel admitted that the £350 million for the NHS wasn't true.

[London1971]

Those promises will come back to haunt the people who made them.  Maybe not tomorrow or next week, but within a few years, when it becomes clearly evident that the NHS isn't massively improving, and questions start being asked about what the actual benefits of leaving the EU were.  Shame it will be after Brexit happens though.

[king12345]

Since the Brexit extension i haven't heard anything substantial about Brexit.

We will surely get to the next deadline and ask for some more time...

[honeybee13]

Boris says we'll be out by the end of October...

 

I suspect once he comes up against reality in Brussels, his views may change. If he's elected of course.

[London1971]

After waiting until the end of July when a new PM is appointed, then the summer recess to be over. No time for renegotiating anything, unless they are planning to try TM's deal again.  Therefore every candidate is being dishonest about taking us out on the 31st October.

[Jase1982]

1 minute ago, London1971 said:

Therefore every candidate is being dishonest about taking us out on the 31st October.

 

Just work on the assumption that every candidate is dishonest anyway and you won't go far wrong 

[London1971]

Lol. When they are talking they are lying..

 

I also love the fact that they think just the fact that they are not Theresa May means that the EU are suddenly going to buckle and change renegotiate.  

[honeybee13]

According to this article, which also talks about Rory Stewart being ditched for telling the truth, they have about three weeks leading up to 31st October to negotiate a perfect new agreement.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/19/rory-stewarts-exit-means-the-tories-have-now-given-up-on-reality

[London1971]

Yup , that was the article I read too.

 

The reality is that whoever becomes PM is in the same situation as Mrs May was, and it's pretty hard to see us going on Oct 31st. 

[hightail]

More frightening to think of us crashing out because of the promised date.  If that happens with Boris in No. 10 and Trump in the Whitehouse ordinary people will have more than chlorinated chicken to worry about.

[honeybee13]

7 minutes ago, London1971 said:

Yup , that was the article I read too.

 

The reality is that whoever becomes PM is in the same situation as Mrs May was, and it's pretty hard to see us going on Oct 31st. 

 

I have to admit, I don't know a no deal Brexit works in practice. Politicians seem to think that you get past the deadline and strike off on your own. Boris doesn't want to pay the £39bn and thinks WTO trading terms are excellent. Nobody seems to have told him there isn't a country in the world that operates on WTO terms and I think I read something that said the WTO don't necessarily want us.

[London1971]

And as for not paying the 39 Billion, that we have already agreed to. That will shred our credibility, and will have a very bad effect on this country's credit rating and ability to borrow.

[honeybee13]

We've been reading the same article.

[renegadeimp]

Sadly it is looking very much like Boris will be the guy taking us through brexit.  The same guy that wants to sell everything off and turn us into the united states.