Article 50 Discussion

[London1971]

58 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

Well the details of the Americans 'aspirations' for a UK-US post Brexit deal are coming out:

and along with the expected chlorine washed chicken and beef in hormone sauce

 

* “Ensure that the UK does not impose measures that restrict cross-border data flows”

– ending current restrictions the UK imposes as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA).

 

so there goes your data protection and EU data sharing

 

 

 

* “Provide full market access for US products”

– eg in favour of US-style direct-marketing of drugs. - the most expensive in the world.

- so there goes the NHs, and for a far more expensive alternative.

and there goes source labeling.

so there goes anything other than external access to the EU market

 

 

 

In addition to the expected labeling reductions so you can't tell which chicken is NOT American chlorine washed:

* Ensure remanufactured goods for export “are not classified as used goods that are restricted or banned”

– not even those containing asbestos fibres, it was argued.

So get you can unlabelled US remanufactured childs toys made with built in asbestos

again - there goes anything other than external access to the EU market

 

 

and this one

* Allow the US to ditch the trade deal if it objects to the terms of any other UK agreement with a “non-market economy” - whatever the US might decide that is at any time

 

- Now that IS vassalage

especially when you consider that a number of the US requirements are completely incompatible with EU regulations AND ARE NOT and WILL NOT BE IN THE EU-US DEAL

 

So they make us incompatible with the EU's regulations, and can dump and change our agreement as they please.

 

 

Thats not even US state status - its slave state status

All the risks and downsides - NONE of the benefits

TRUE Vassalage

 

yay usa - NOT

 

 

 

a simple summary but google the detail

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-us-chlorine-chicken-nhs-drug-costs-a8803086.html

 

 

 

You and your  nasty horrible facts, where's your Dunkirk Spirit Lad / S

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

26 minutes ago, London1971 said:

You and your  nasty horrible facts, where's your Dunkirk Spirit Lad / S

 

 

 

 

Fighting against fascist right wing movements, self serving profiteers and dictatorships

in the best interests of the British people?

 

.. that I am.

 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[buckthorn]

"Brexit" Says it all really.!

 

 

A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost. He reduced altitude and spotted a woman below. He descended a bit more and shouted, “Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don’t know where I am.”  

The woman below replied, “You’re in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 30 feet above the ground. You’re between 59 and 60 degrees north latitude and between 107 and 108 degrees west longitude.”

“You must be an engineer,” said the balloonist.

“I am,” replied the woman, “How did you know?”  

“Well,” answered the balloonist, “everything you told me is technically correct, but I’ve no idea what to make of your information, and the fact is I’m still lost. Frankly, you’ve not been much help at all. If anything, you’ve delayed my trip.”

The woman below responded, “You must be a politician”

“I am,” replied the balloonist, “but how did you know?”  

“Well,” said the woman, “you don’t know where you are or where you’re going. You have risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made a promise, which you’ve no idea how to keep, and you expect people beneath you to solve your problems. The fact is you are in exactly the same position you were in before we met, but now, somehow, it’s my fault.”

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by buckthorn

[tobyjugg2]

16 hours ago, buckthorn said:

“Well,” answered the balloonist, “everything you told me is technically correct, but I’ve no idea what to make of your information, and the fact is I’m still lost.

 

 

 

Is that the salient bit Buckthorn?

 

OK:

 

EU membership and trade = GOOD

EU-USA trade deal = seems potentially not too bad

 

Brexit = Very Very Bad,

UK-USA trade deal = VERY VERY bad

Farage = lying conniving 
 

Does that help?

 

[tobyjugg2]

15 hours ago, buckthorn said:

 and the fact is I’m still lost.

 

 

or is it just that bit

 

So, regarding direction, X marks the spot here:

Lib Dems

Greens

SNP

or change UK

 

whichever is largest in your area

 

 

Hope that helps

Edited May 17, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

Lib Dems for me, judging by the number of signs popping up everywhere around here, seem to be the best horse to bet in these elections, as a remainer.

Edited May 17, 2019 by London1971

[tobyjugg2]

 

Same with me according to the tactical voting sites london1971, but the 2 tactical voting sites'  perspectives appears to be entirely inadequate so far from what I've seen.

 

It a real shame that the lib dems and greens aren't campaigning together. They will impact each others votes despite having many very similar policies.

 

eg Green vote for lib dems as largest, yet lose a green seat and gain only one extra lib dem seat

 

They do need to combine. It would also show that at least some some politicians CAN work together.

 

Perhaps less so with change which will of its nature be a right of centre party - particularly if a number real Tories (as opposed to the right wing NF members durrently driving this mess in the tory party) leave the con party as events unfold and go to change.

No idea how likely that is at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[Jase1982]

2 hours ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

It a real shame that the lib dems and greens aren't campaigning together. They will impact each others votes despite having many very similar policies.

 

eg Green vote for lib dems as largest, yet lose a green seat and gain only one extra lib dem seat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Totally agree.  If elected, they join a European political party anyway.   I just wish we were more progressive and forward thinking in this country.

 

Having thought about this I'm now of the opinion that this is exactly what Nigel Farage wants because the european elections will more than likely be a complete wipe out for the two main parties, and with what remains of the left still dithering over this or that; in one foul swoop he could cement his position within Europe and obtain more power unifying his new party with similar right wing parties.  Isn't this how the Nazi's obtained power?  He's spent years convincing people that someone is to blame for everything that's wrong in their lives, and now he's going to easily win these elections if latest figures are to be believed.

[honeybee13]

That's worrying if it's the case, Jase.

 

Our politicians seem to be very bad at working together compared with some other countries, Germany for example.

 

I think it's particularly disappointing about ChangeUK who wanted to do politics a different way if I understood what they were saying and are now refusing to co-operate with anyone else or think differently, as far as I can see.

[honeybee13]

I see Treeza is blaming Labout 'divisions' for the break up of the cross party talks. No mention of any divisions within the Tories but they needed someone to blame apart from themselves.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/17/brexit-talks-tories-labour-likely-to-collapse-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn

[unclebulgaria67]

Theresa May will stand down as Tory leader within 2 weeks, leading to a Tory leadership contest. New Tory Leader/PM will be in place by early July and they will try to ask the EU for the Irish backstop to be removed from withdrawal agreement. This will fail, with the EU advising that the withdrawal agreement is not open to renegotiation.

 

The new PM will then find themselves in the same position as May, so will decide to call a General Election. The election will be due the first Thursday in September, so you will have a long campaigning period.

 

Tory EU position will be to leave without a withdrawal deal and with future relationship with the EU to be negotiated after leaving.

 

Labour policy will be for the UK to leave the EU with a deal, but for the deal to include Customs Union arrangements to safeguard Jobs, close alignment to single market to ensure common standards on goods, environment, employment rights etc. BUT the deal with the EU to be subject to a confirmatory referendum, with Remain being an option.

 

Lib Dems, The Greens, SNP, etc Remain in the EU.

 

Brexit party, UKIP may not have candidates given new Tory position.

 

Election result: Difficult to predict. Depends on how many Leave voters are happy with a no deal Brexit. I should imagine a sizeable percentage might not be happy for the UK to take this risk.

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Only one issue with that unc,

If johnson replaces May, do you really think he would go to the people before he had too?

I dont think he would risk becoming the shortest serving PM in the history of the UK.

 

The MEP elections could be a pivotal point in our history.

 

If only the lib-dems and greens were running together.

There are no real reasons why they shouldn't and immense reasons why they should

 

 

With proper organisation and presentation a lib-dem/green coalition could easily beat Farage, the Tories and Labour.

Even with most of the Tories going to Farage, that could only be about 6 or 7 million votes

Easily beatable.

 

Brexiters could say theres 17 million, but I think a lot 17M have had Brexit Reality slap them in the face like a smelly rancid old trout.

 

 

Remainers need to vote in the european elections - and vote for a confirmed remain Party.

 

 

[unclebulgaria67]

Latest rumour reported by Daily Fail, is that Theresa May will try to get House of Commons to vote a Customs Union arrangement through, but with the arrangement having some clause that the arrangement can be ended.

 

May is hoping that enough Labour MP's vote for this, even if Labour have a three line whip to vote against.

 

Can't see this working.

 

i think you are probably correct about a new Tory leader not wanting a General Election, but if many Tory MP's no longer support the Government, they would no longer have a majority. No Government would last very long, if they could not pass important legislation through.

 

Were you aware that Brexit has caused Government to not to have the legislation that should really be in place and Govenment departments are having to make use of older Legislation, that is not really as it should be. It is a bit like owning a Ford Focus latest model, but having to use parts from version 2, that could be made to work, but are not ideal.

[tobyjugg2]

40 minutes ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

Latest rumour reported by Daily Fail, is that Theresa May will try to get House of Commons to vote a Customs Union arrangement through, but with the arrangement having some clause that the arrangement can be ended.

 

 

Thats what was reported as being the 'offer to labour wasn't it -

 

Effectively that they will agree that we will each aspire to have the option to pursue what we like, and whoever is next in power can pursue what they like.

- ergo Gobbledegook meaning Nowt positive apart from limiting choices further per Mays withdrawal agreement limitations and making a hard no deal exit or indefinite uncertainty; both devastating UK investment and business; almost certain

 

 

I think that Johnson being voted in to be the scapegoat May was intended to be would cause an actual split in the Tory Party rather than just the internal war that's occurring..

I have severe doubts he would get in anyway - but he could probably end up as effective 2nd in power continuing the increased levels of backstabbing, power politicking and conflict in the Tory party.

 

 

 

Voting Lib Dem or Green in England and SNP in Scotland  seems to be the ONLY options for remainers, even if they are just there to promote a revoke/re-ref.

 

Not sure on the Welsh position

 

 

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

Looks like I'm voting Green

 

 

East Midlands - Vote Green   Current polling predicts: 1 Remainer party will win 1 seat Smart Voting indicates: A further seat can be gained for a second pro-European party.  The Liberal Democrats look secure in winning a single seat. The next best placed pro-European party to win is the Greens. A Greens gain will displace a pro-Brexit party, and lock them out of the East Midlands region.  Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

Eastern England - Vote Green   Current Polling predicts: 2 Remainer seats Smart Voting indicates: We can gain an additional seat, bringing the total to 3.  The Liberal Democrats look secure in this region, but the Greens are fighting for last seat against the Brexit Party. RemainVoter.com recommends voting Green to secure a Remainer seat in East of England, blocking Farage.  Remain Voter only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

London - Vote Change UK   Current Polling predicts: 3 Remainer seats across two parties. Smart Voting indicates: We can gain a 4th seat for a third pro-European party.  Lib Dem and Green seats look secure, so RemainVoter.com recommends vote Change UK to gain a 4th Remain seat in London. With Labour being non-committal, this means pro-Brexit parties cannot claim the capital. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

North East Vote Liberal Democrat   Current Polling predicts 0 Remain seats Smart Voting indicates: National vote share assist With only 3 seats, the only way a Remainer can get elected is if we all co-operate. To bring a single seat within reach of a Remain party, RemainVoter.com recommends voting Liberal Democrat, and bringing a friend to the polling station. This will increase the key indicator of national vote share for Remain parties: don't give up. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

North West vote Green   Current Polling predicts: 1 Remainer seat is secure Smart Voting indicates: 1 more Remain seat can be added LDs look likely to win a seat.  And just a tiny movement from Lab and CUK voters to Green will give Remainers an extra seat. With 3 sitting Lab MEP retaining seats, smart voting will deliver a strong pro-European delegation. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

Northern Ireland vote your preference: Alliance; SDLP; Green; Sinn Fein*   In order to vote for these Remain parties in Northern Ireland, it is important NOT to add a number against any other party.  Under Single Transferable Vote, if you don't put a number next to a party, your vote can never be counted for them.

Scotland vote Liberal Democrats to win 2 Remain seats   Current polling predicts: 3 Remain seats Smart Voting indicates: 5 Remain seats Scotland is interesting! Recent polling shows SNP confidently gaining 3 seats with undecided Labour voters blocking a 4th. RemainVoter.com modelling shows LDs have the momentum to win a seat while helping the SNP win the 4th seat. So smart voting can win a seat from a pro-Brexit party while capitalising on Labour's lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

South East vote Change UK   Current Polling predicts: 3 Remainer seats for 2 pro-EU parties Smart Voting indicates:  We can gain a further seat for a third pro-EU party The Liberal Democrats look secure on 2 seats and the Greens on 1 seat. Neither will get another, so vote Change UK to get a 4th Remainer seat in the Southeast. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

South West vote Green   Current Polling predicts: 1 Remainer seat is secure Smart Voting indicates: We can gain 1 more Remainer MEP The Liberal Democrat seat is secure, so vote Green to get a second Remain seat in the Southwest. Smart Voting returns a sitting MEP who is highly visible promoting the EU and combatting corruption. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

Wales vote Liberal Democrats  Current Polling predicts: 1 Remainer seat is secure Smart Voting indicates: 1 more Remain seat can be added Plaid Cymru is set to win one seat in Wales. With smart voting, the Liberal Democrats can also win a seat without encroaching on Plaid Cyrmu. That gain will mean half the MEPs in Wales are outright Remain supporters. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

West Midlands vote Green   Current Polling predicts: 1 Remainer seat is secure Smart Voting indicates: 1 more Remain seat can be added It looks like the Liberal Democrats will win one seat. With Remainers voting Green, we can add a second Remain supporting MEP in the West Midlands, with Labour losing out because of its lack of commitment to their majority Remain membership. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

Yorkshire and the Humber vote Green   Current Polling predicts: 1 Remainer seat is secure Smart Voting indicates: 1 more Remain seat can be added The Liberal Democrats are set to win a seat.  If enough people vote Green, they too will win a seat. Winning a Green seat in Yorkshire and the Humber will send a strong message that there is demand for Remain throughout the country. We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.

[unclebulgaria67]

Not sure how EU elections work. Proportional representation ?

 

I though there was a list system for each party standing and  it depends on percentage of vote, as to how many MEP's they get.

 

I live in the South West, so how many extra votes do the Greens need to gain a seat and why would the Lib Dems not gain an extra seat, if they received enough extra votes ?

[honeybee13]

It's the d'Hondt system, UB, looks complicated to me. The Guardian has explained it.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/19/european-election-all-you-need-to-know-dos-dhondts

[tobyjugg2]

2 hours ago, unclebulgaria67 said:

I live in the South West, so how many extra votes do the Greens need to gain a seat and why would the Lib Dems not gain an extra seat, if they received enough extra votes ?

 

I think it must be that on projected votes without tactical, then the lib dems would just pass the number required and the greens would be just short.

 

How that works with two seats as stated is far less clear, but may be that the lib dems seats are safe but would need loads more for an extra seat

- and the best 'bet' is everyone vote green guaranteeing one extra and possibly good for 2.

 

 

 

[London1971]

Ok, I need to research this too, I am South West and want to help make sure we elect a remainer MP

[honeybee13]

The chips seem to be down for May after the withdrawal agreement speech. The pundits don't seem to think she'll be around much longer.

[London1971]

Looks like her goose is going to be cooked today, 

[honeybee13]

It seems it may not be today but they think it will be soon. 

[unclebulgaria67]

May has a meeting with Chair of 1922 committee on Friday, where she will be told that she has lost support of the majority of Tory MP's ? She will be asked to resign as leader I suspect or Tory party rules will be changed, to force a leadership contest. Then I could see May thinking about this over the weekend and resigning as Tory leader early next week.,

[honeybee13]

You could be right, UB.

 

I think a concern for a PM could be that if the 1922 committee changes the rules to be able to challenge the party leader more than once a year, it could lead to Conservative leadership being pretty tenuous.

[unclebulgaria67]

I think it is too difficult for any party leader to negotiate withdrawal from the EU on their own. It will always be a cross party task, unless there is a General Election and the country gave the the Tories a big majority. But at the moment that is very unlikely.