Article 50 Discussion

[honeybee13]

I think some of the Britain used to be great believers are thinking back to the Empire. Not too far back, probably this week, I posted a link to an article by an ex-PM of Australia explaining how what's left of the Commonwealth can't possibly replace the European market we currently deal with.

 

 

[Jase1982]

Can anything?  The only place on earth that has a higher GDP that the EU is the US.

[London1971]

I can't understand why anyone logical does think that we can trade more with other countries in the future than we do with the EU now.

[tobyjugg2]

So what are we looking at now

 

1. May continues to run out the clock - with the 'short' extension request
- May rumored to be asking for an extension - which the EU has said must have some justifiable reason beyond British parliament messing around some more - May could just 'not give one worth considering'

- whip up anti EU sentiment and fail to 'bully' the EU and force Mays deal or a crash out no deal on the UK Parliament - with May blaming the EU

2. What could she do with an extension to further force 'her deal or no deal'?
- Run an extension beyond the MEP elections without having the elections - then its almost certain the EU will refuse the UK any further extensions.
- which could actually force Mays deal or a crash out no deal on the UK Parliament - with May blaming the EU

 

 

What will Corbyn do?

 

a) Call another three line whip vote of no confidence in PM MAY (not the government)
- This would likely get the support of the ERG and a raft of other Tory hard Brexiters as May would almost certainly be replaced with a hard Brexiter NOT a Labour government.

This might pass with a whipped Labour party - and be the ultimate betrayal of the Labour Party, Almost certainly split the Labour Party - not that Corbyn would be bothered with that.

This would NOT be a Labour duty as it would NOT result in a general election.

- but it would run out more of the very short time left.

 

 

b) Call a vote of no confidence in the government
- unlikely to pass as the Tories and DUP would NOT vote against their party

- even if it passed Corbyn has no answers and no time

- but it would run out more of the very short time left.

 

 

What might be left as an alternative?

This all seems to be to ensure the options are limited and that there wont be a second informed referendum.

Only revoking the article 50 notification would be left to avoid a crash out or accepting Mays deal which is of course just another worst of all worlds kick the can down the road again ploy.

 

 

[London1971]

Or, maybe, logic dictates that there is a better than 50% chance of getting the deal through, in 3 months. If there is no extension now there is 100% chance of crashing out with no deal. If she asks for a longer extension then there is a 100% chance of the Conservative party falling apart and her being replaced (by a hard Brexiteer).  

 

 

[Jase1982]

It's interesting that today in the commons, May said the following - ""As prime minister I am not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30 June," she says."

 

You can read that statement a couple of different ways, but it could suggest she's willing to step aside if forced.  And she will need a longer delay because there's no majority for anything in the commons, and I can't see anything being passed to push parliament past this impasse.

[tobyjugg2]

May tries 1 AND 2 then - cover the bases

 

EU says {sound of large rasberry}

[honeybee13]

She's still taking options she doesn't have then.

 

 

[honeybee13]

MPs are holiding an emergency debate and Donald Tusk is speaking any minute now.

 

Opposition leaders are invited to Downing Street at 6pm, which seems to coincide with Treeza making a speech, possibly outside no 10.

 

Not a clue...

[London1971]

Just revoke article 50 already.

[tobyjugg2]

LOL

May has very specifically asked for what the EU has clearly said wasn't a realistic option, for what isnt a valid reason
 

EU responds

OK She can maybe have the extension - if she can get her deal passed in UK parliament

... which of course would mean she wouldn't need the extension

- as that was what it was for (as well as trying to put the EU in a legally vulnerable position)

 

May snookered

 

LOL

 

 

May now starting to threaten resignation - and the Tory leadership battle that could actually split the Tory Party

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

The poo is now hitting the fan.

 

It's 40 years of the Tory civil war on Europe erupting into one final battle.

Edited March 20, 2019 by London1971

[honeybee13]

PM is currently meeting opposition leaders unless she changed her mind again. And she's speaking to the nation at 8.15 unless it's delayed again.

 

Can't wait.

[London1971]

The people who got us into this should be ashamed of themselves. Except they aren't

[tobyjugg2]

Petition to revoke article 50 exceeds 1m signatures amid site crashes

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/21/petitions-site-crashes-after-thousands-back-call-to-revoke-article-50

 

 

When the site first crashed today the petition had received almost 600,000 signatures and was growing at a rate of 1,500 a minute.

 

 

" It has been buoyed by support from celebrities including Hugh Grant, Jennifer Saunders and Brian Cox. The cause was also given surprise backing on Thursday morning by the chief minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo, who told Sky News: “If on Tuesday MPs do not back the withdrawal agreement then the only way for the UK to take back control of the Brexit process is to revoke the article 50 notification.”

 

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

 

 

 

"On Wednesday evening, Andrew White, the chief technology officer of the digital consultancy that built the petitions website, tweeted that the petition was receiving “an average of 1,000 signatures per minute. Not too bad but nowhere near crashing the site – you all need to try harder tomorrow.”

The following morning, White conceded defeat"

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Well Andrea Leadsom doesn't seem to be impressed, but then you wouldn't expect her to be. She says if the petition reaches 17-odd million she'll take notice, but that's hardly realistic.

 

Is there an equivalent petition for Brexiters?

[London1971]

If it reached 17 million she wouldn't take notice. 

 

Despite nearly every business leader, world leader and economist agreeing that Brexit is bad.  Millions of people are still shrieking for a no deal.  Why would Leadsom  be any different.

[honeybee13]

I know.   Now signed by nearly 2.5 million people.

 

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

[London1971]

If it reaches 17 million, it will still be ignored.  

 

Prime minister has a choice between plunging a country into an unknown amount of economic chaos, or holding some elections on May 23rd ?  It's almost inconceivable that a rational or sane leader would choose option 1.

 

 

 

 

[honeybee13]

Indeed.

 

She still seems to be counting on running it down to the wire so she can force her deal through. It will be interesting to see if she loses by more than 149 next time MPs vote on the deal yet again, after what she said to them in the televised speech the other night. She doesn't seem to have many friends these days.

 

[tobyjugg2]

58 minutes ago, London1971 said:

If it reaches 17 million, it will still be ignored.  

 

Prime minister has a choice between plunging a country into an unknown amount of economic chaos, or holding some elections on May 23rd ?  It's almost inconceivable that a rational or sane leader would choose option 1.

 

 

43 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

Indeed.

 

She still seems to be counting on running it down to the wire so she can force her deal through.

 

 

 

Both absolutely bang on

 

The only hope is for Parliament to actually carry out their threats to take back control - and quickly

but even if they do, what then?

 

What has been a fact for some months and quickly becoming an inescapable truth, the ONLY way to address this is to reset the entire process and revoke article 50.

Its even to late for a referendum now without a MUCH longer extension and MEP elections.

 

The EU is as sick of this as everyone else, I think if it wasn't for the EU NOT wanting any even half-way legitimate reason for them to be blamed for the UK's collapse they would have just let us fall over the cliff on the 29th

How can an entire process thats been run almost entirely on lies and deceit from day 1 still be running, in whats supposed to be an educated democratic society? It beggars belief.

 

 

 

You all had the notification from your car insurance companies about no deal requirements?

https://u-k-insurance.co.uk/eugreencard.html

 

 

and seen this from 'Hunt the even more hated' starting the 'Obey Trump whatever the cost to the tattered remnants of the UK's standing' process ?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/21/uk-will-change-tack-on-un-motions-criticising-israel-says-jeremy-hunt

 

They will be putting him in charge of destroying childline next to protect the sort of politicians we have in power.

 

 

 

and as a side note this damn site simply doesn't work properly any more

[honeybee13]

There's a separate thread about problems with the forum, TJ, you might like to tell us about it on that.

[tobyjugg2]

11 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

There's a separate thread about problems with the forum, TJ, you might like to tell us about it on that.

 

Yes

Seen how well that goes.

A bit like Mays self indulgence - its my deal or no deal - no matter how crap it is

If you haven't got something good to say - shut up.

Cant even reply without logging in first and losing what you've typed rather than the log in option coming when you click post as it always did before.

 

Like the ongoing deletion of posts here, seems like critique of Farage seems to be the same no go area as critique of Murdock, however valid.

Who the heck knows what posts are still there and whether they were what you posted

 

 

Also like May, I think this sites in its last days - and been hanging on grimly long past its sell by date.

 

Just look at the responses in the forums to people asking for help

'start a new thread'

'You should have recorded it'

'Search the forums its already been answered'

 

 

 

Wonder how long this post will last?

[Jase1982]

Does anyone else think that May actually doesn't want Brexit and is just pushing the self destruct button.  She's like a kidnap victim being put on camera crying for help without actually being able to scream help.  It's like the ERG have a gun pointed to her head, or are holding members of her family captive.

[London1971]

Kwasi Kwarteng, a junior Brexit minister, is responding.

He is summarising what was agreed last night. (See 8.01am.)

He says Theresa May has said it would be “quite wrong” for the UK to participate in the European elections (which would be necessary if the UK wants to remain in the EU beyond 22 May.)

 

Her language is subtly changing. 'Quite Wrong not = to 'Ruling out'