Article 50 Discussion

[London1971]

5 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

+2.

 

Did anyone see the article by an ex-Australian PM about thinking that trade with the Commonwealth will replace what we have with Europe?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/11/commonwealth-save-brexit-britain-utter-delusion-kevin-rudd

 

He would have been considered an 'expert' commenting as part of project fear before the referendum.  

[honeybee13]

Maybe the lady has been read years of articles by anit-Europe tabloids. I think some people have bought into the conspiracy theory these papers promote. They don't seem to mention the benefits of being in Europe.

2 minutes ago, London1971 said:

He would have been considered an 'expert' commenting as part of project fear before the referendum.  

Indeed.

[tobyjugg2]

11 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

+2.

 

Did anyone see the article by an ex-Australian PM about thinking that trade with the Commonwealth will replace what we have with Europe?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/11/commonwealth-save-brexit-britain-utter-delusion-kevin-rudd

 

 

Yep, Too true HB.

The commonwealth is not interested in a return to empire.

Same with India, Japan and even China

 

.. as was stated in one of these threads here perhaps 2 years ago.

 

 

I think Fox has actually signed some deal with some African country to sell us bananas though.

Seems he thinks we are all Minions.

 

 

 

India has rescinded UK financier protections, and is quite clearly stating free/enhanced movement is part of any future deal

- but is losing interest fast as they work on a direct deal with the EU.

 

 

Japan seems to be entirely losing interest in the UK except as a backwater as it now HAS a deal with the EU and isn't interested in some small Island whose population is skint and cant afford new cars (seen to fall in new car sales?) and will have tariffs.

 

 

China will carry on via ebay etc flogging us copy goods - but might benefit greatly from the Brexiters proposed dropping of import tariffs - at no cost to them.

 

The US want the rights and regulations bonfire as part of their deal - which the Brexiters have no issue with of course - except Gove it would seem - if you can believe anything he says.

 

 

Its beginning to look a lot like Brexit,

Everyone will go ...

 

 

Edited March 12, 2019 by tobyjugg2
Capital M in Minions

[London1971]

3 minutes ago, tobyjugg2 said:

 

 

Yep, Too true HB.

The commonwealth is not interested in a return to empire.

Same with India, Japan and even China

 

.. as was stated in one of these threads here perhaps 2 years ago.

 

 

I think Fox has actually signed some deal with some African country to sell us bananas though.

Seems he thinks we are all Minions.

 

 

 

India has rescinded UK financier protections, and is quite clearly stating free/enhanced movement is part of any future deal

- but is losing interest fast as they work on a direct deal with the EU.

 

 

Japan seems to be entirely losing interest in the UK except as a backwater as it now HAS a deal with the EU and isn't interested in some small Island whose population is skint and cant afford new cars (seen to fall in new car sales?) and will have tariffs.

 

 

China will carry on via ebay etc flogging us copy goods - but might benefit greatly from the Brexiters proposed dropping of import tariffs - at no cost to them.

 

The US want the rights and regulations bonfire as part of their deal - which the Brexiters have no issue with of course - except Gove it would seem - if you can believe anything he says.

 

 

Its beginning to look a lot like Brexit,

Everyone will go ...

 

 

This is why it's the aggregated betting odds are now 5/11 on of us being back in the EU by 2027

[London1971]

Looks like Cox's advice has gone against May's deal in the last few minutes and the DUP have just said they won't support it

 

 

 

[tobyjugg2]

7 minutes ago, London1971 said:

This is why it's the aggregated betting odds are now 5/11 on of us being back in the EU by 2027

 

I think France and some others would veto any return. All other things aside (and why would they want us back) Without Britain supporting Germany - as it often has - France has a far greater influence.

 

and anyway - no way would we get our existing deal.

Edited March 12, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[honeybee13]

Another majority against May's deal, 149 this time.

[honeybee13]

Someone just sent me this article, it sounds pretty scary to me. Take back control from Europe and hand it straight to the US.

 

https://theconversation.com/brexit-britains-weakness-exposed-in-us-trade-deal-documents-113077

[tobyjugg2]

So Mays deal defeated again - still probably needs another defeat though ...

Round and round in circles,

Like a teddy bear,

1 defeat

2 defeat

and still she doesn't hear.

 

 

+ Leaving without a deal - rejected + count the abstentions as rejections too

- Meaning is blurred lines though like Mays unilateral statement of waffle waffle blah blah.

Binding on the UK to an extent - but not binding on the EU and still not a realistic option let alone a default one.

Wont mean squat to May or Corbyn other than as political waffle ammo.

 

Farage and hard Brexiters are lobbying EU right wing EU nations, like the UK's old ally Poland to refuse an extension ....

and these RW anti EU'ers are saying that the anti-eu are an EU wide anti-eu who will work together to bring down the eu-eu ...

So EU wide brexiters lobbying the EU - who they hate, to do their will to damage all sides (except Russia and America perhaps)

 

 

* So with No deal Brexit not officially on the table - but still the default option in reality on 29th

* Mays deal rejected twice (but still maybe another go to go)

* The EU saying no more negotiating (unless the UK stance changes significantly at least)

* The UK mainly saying its still Brexit with a deal

* May says her deal or no deal

* Corbyn saying his Brexit deal (undefined)

* DUP and most of the ERG + a few Labour say no deal is the only deal

* About 70-75% of the Tories LESS the ERG - demand BRexit - preferably with a deal

* Corbyn saying general election (with nothing defined)

* Farage and Friends trying to get the EU to veto an extension (only takes 1 to veto, but 2 to deal)

 

 The options seem to be

 

* Carry on mucking about as May and Corbyn seem to be driving and crash out on the 29th whatever Parliament says they want - still the default

* Agree Mays deal at third attempt or crash out on 29th - because May, the DUP, the ERG and Corbyn will continue running the clock out

 

* Get an extension to do something - which the EU will have to agree

 

* Revoke the article 50 notification which seems the only guaranteed way to NOT crash out apart from voting for Mays worst of all deals at third last minute attempt.

 

Remember there is no transition deal without an exit deal.

 

 

None of which the public voted for in the referendum (well apart from Remain)

- including hard Brexit - never mentioned other than in passing - and falsely as a WTO wonderland fantasy.

In fact Baldric Smeghead de fathead faffer Johnson actually said something like 'theres no plan for no deal as we'll get a great deal'

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

I think we are going to end  up with a long extention.

[unclebulgaria67]

General election and/or referendum within the next 3 months.

 

Theresa May could obtain a Parliamentary majority for Brexit including a Customs agreement with the EU. This would help resolve the Irish border issue and avoid trade barriers with the EU, so would help business. Brexiteers won't support this, as it would stop UK obtaining non EU trade deals, without consent of EU.

 

May knows that Brexiteers , both in the Tory party and outside,  are pretty likely to jump ship to UKIP and the Tories would find it difficult winning a majority at next election.

 

May choose to take a tightrope walk down the middle of the Brexit debate and force a compromised EU deal on Parliament, without having spent enough time building a majority that would have achieved Brexit within the 2 year period. This is why an Article 50 extension will be agreed until end of June 2019 and that might not be enough to gain cross party agreement.

 

 

[honeybee13]

But the next European elections start on 23rd May. Does that mean we need to take part in them if there is an extension until the end of June?

 

UB, I think May has brought the current chaos on herself. As soon as she was elected leader, she started letting the ERG dictate what would happen and stopped caring about the 48% who voted Remain and even insulted them with comments like Citizens of Nowhere. Now it suits her, she wants everyone to pull together and everyone including Europe to compromise, so she doesn't have to.

 

I see there's talk this morning of bringing back her hugely unpopular deal one more time, to try and bludgeon MPs into accepting it. John Bercow seems to be looking into if it's even allowed to bring back the same motion unamended for a third time.

[honeybee13]

This article is informative on extending article 50. Any extension of over a couple of months, assuning Europe agrees, means participating in the elections.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/14/brexit-how-would-an-extension-to-article-50-work

[tobyjugg2]

Mays deal will be brought back again with a minutiae change if Bercow says no.

 

The EU are VERY unlikely to grant anything other than

1. Short extension with defined objective with some chance of success

2. Long extension with MEP's etc - kick it well into the long grass rather than keep kicking it a few weeks away again and again

 

We are So unprepared that revoking the article 50 notification is the only sensible 'business' route, but of course this is all about ideologies, NOT sense.

The argument that the UK people would lose faith in UK politics is farcicle given its current state.

 

The EU now seem to be expecting the UK to run around in circles until it vanishes into non-existence up its own backside before it even manages any form of Brexit. May seems hoping that the UK will allow a crash out or her (kick the can down the road) deal to avoid self- immolation by sphincter ..

and are clearly unwilling to waste any more effort on any more UK games.

 

The EU have more important issues to deal with than a completely divided UK which is becoming less important to the EU and the world stage by the week.

 

Despite the ERG claims, the EU has bent over backwards to accommodate what they can of the UK's many disparate and conflicting fantasy wishes and have clearly had enough.

 

For those who think the UK can quickly rejoin after leaving - I think there will be more than one veto applied on that and even if we could - it would be on more standard terms

- which the UK would kick off about - and be sidelined until they met the criteria - thus avoiding even the need for a veto.

 

 

 

If there is a long extension, we really DO need to ensure Farage and Banks do NOT get MEP seats to continue using to progress Foreign (to the UK and EU) interests.

Not worried about genuine British Euro-sceptics so much - a bit of national self interest is spot on in my books - but I now honestly think Farage is actually working for Russian goals both here, the EU and in the US.

Not tin hat stuff either - look at the current state of the investigations into them.

 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

I think it's going to go on hold for a long time. .. 

 

Then you only need to look at demographics, I live in a very heavy leave area, yet Brexit is held in utter contempt buy 100% of all pupils at my teenage kids comprehensive.  Really only a few years off voting age!

 

Then all the brexiteers in their 80's dying, I know of 2 in the past month RIP, friends or elderly family.  This is the real headwind for Brexit IMO.

[honeybee13]

They're saying that Treeza is going to bring her deal back to parliament for another vote on Tuesday, it isn't known if there will be any alterations to it.

 

Labour's Chris Bryant has tabled an amendment saying that you can't keep presenting the same thing in the same parliamentary session. I guess she's carrying on bullying people to try and force through a deal that hardly anyone likes.

[tobyjugg2]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-mp-christopher-chope-says-brexiteers-would-now-back-vote-to-topple-theresa-may_uk_5c8a703ae4b0450ddae8459e?wzc&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

 

Corbyn now in line to topple May - in favour of a Brexiter

Edited March 14, 2019 by tobyjugg2

[London1971]

The  ERG and Hard Brexiteers are running scared now. I bet none of them voted for the A50 extention. I'd not be surprised if it became March 29th 2020. The longer, the delay, the more momentum gathers for a soft Brexit or a referendum, and the ERG knows this.

[Jase1982]

On 14/03/2019 at 07:12, unclebulgaria67 said:

General election and/or referendum within the next 3 months.

 

 

I genuinely believed that watching the votes yesterday we would surely see movement towards a second referendum.  But at this stage I don't think a majority will vote for anything that veers too far to the left or right.

 

Teresa May's deal will get voted down a hundred times because forgetting the issue over the backstop - It is still a bad deal.  This is the point the seem to have escaped all the hard brexiters, unless they're either ignorant or being deliberately dishonest (maybe a bit of both).  Leaving the EU is absolutely worse than staying in the EU, so any "deal" we negotiate at this stage won't be any good for the UK.  They seem to be pretending that there is something better out there, maybe through fear of the public backlash.

 

When May says it's her way or no deal.  I absolutely believe her.  This is a legal process and the EU are trying to implement whatever the wishes of the UK were.  By default, our wishes appear to be to negotiate our position down and to give away what sovereignty we had because that is what leaving means.

 

Where we go from here, who knows.  The EU still has to agree to an extension of article 50 and they will want to know what the plan is - At present the plan seems to be to have Parliament vote on the same deal until it gets voted through, so a very long extension is looking likely!

[tobyjugg2]

I am really sick to death of Brexiters shouting, “where is the Trust, democracy and respecting the vote” as if someone were cheating them.

 

Well Brexiters – good question – just wrong people being asked.

Even with just the flat lie of 350M a week and temporarily ignoring all the many other lies,

Brexit was presented by Vote Leave as “we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave"

So along with the 350M a week claim being dropped within hours of the result being declared, what about this second bit of the Brexit T&C’s that were quickly reneged on?

 

Well Brexiters,

With the failure to meet even the headline Brexit side commitments and assurances given in the Brexit campaign – where IS the trust, democracy or respecting the vote?

 

https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/2290566/vote-leave-2016-taking-back-control-is-a-careful-change-not-a-sudden-step

 

[London1971]

Actually what's really starting to annoy me is people on Facebook sharing BS about how our soldiers back in world war 2 would be so offended we are denying Brexit in the face of those nasty bullies from Europe.

 

I mean does anyone think a soldier fighting Germany back in 1944 would even care about anything aside from coming home to be with their families.  It's pretty offensive IMO.

 

 

[honeybee13]

That isn't very logical, is it, London, as you say? Our soldiers were fighting alongside some Europeans, without wishing to state the obvious.

[London1971]

Nothing is very logical about any of this.  

[Jase1982]

2 minutes ago, honeybee13 said:

That isn't very logical, is it, London, as you say? Our soldiers were fighting alongside some Europeans, without wishing to state the obvious.

 

But apparently according to some of those facebook posts people keep sharing, we saved Europe in the war...  I am convinced a lot of these memes come from dodgy sources.  Similar to a lot of these posts you see about Labour and anti semitism.   Honestly, the powers that be must love social media.  It makes getting lies out so easy, and you can get them to so many people.

[London1971]

Ohh I have seen some doddery old bloke writing a letter to that effect in our local paper, blah blah blah, world war 2, blah blah Britain used to be great.