Article 50 Discussion

[silverfox1961]

I'm finding it a little difficult at the moment due to things being said that we were not informed of prior to the referendum so I thought I would use your post to express my thoughts

 

Well it now looks certain that the UK will brexit with no deal other than perhaps a few reciprocals like ex pat rights as

 

EU states no trade deal until Brexit negotiations complete (of course)

This is true but I have not seen anywhere that states that no informal talks are also banned. The EU cannot ban B2B negotiations, can they?? Businesses still have to deal with each other

 

 

UK to pay approx 59B as part of Brexit to cover various ongoing UK cost commitments (Little doubt the Tories will take this OUT of the NHS and care and local services budget)

Is this 100% certain or is it scaremongering by the EU ministers. The UK pays approx £19b per year but once out of the EU, doesn't our responsibility to ongoing projects continue after Brexit?

 

Based on only about a third of the UK actually voting for Brexit,

This is a difficult one. Even though only a third of the UK actually voted to leave, how do we know that had the people that didn't even bother to vote would have swayed it the other way?

All we can do is speculate.

 

Long past time the actual voice of the people was heard

 

What do you think?

 

I do have to say that as I voted to leave, I should still be certain of my beliefs however since the 'fallout' and new 'facts' coming to light, I have no real idea if my choice was right or wrong and I would assume other leave voters are having the same 'wobbles'

Too late now.

[unclebulgaria67]

I'm finding it a little difficult at the moment due to things being said that we were not informed of prior to the referendum so I thought I would use your post to express my thoughts

 

 

 

What do you think?

 

I do have to say that as I voted to leave, I should still be certain of my beliefs however since the 'fallout' and new 'facts' coming to light, I have no real idea if my choice was right or wrong and I would assume other leave voters are having the same 'wobbles'

Too late now.

 

In regard to continuing UK contributions to the EU, this is part of the membership terms. If you leave the club, you still have to fund ongoing commitments. This is not just EU employee/MEP pensions, but all of the various different things that UK ministers have agreed to fund out of the UK contribution over a period. It is likely the UK will be required to pay a lump sum of money, followed by reduced payments over a long period. Estimates of sum required are between £30b and £60b.

 

It is not too late now, because Article 50 just allows negotiations on EU exit starting. At any point within the 2 year period, UK Government can ask to withdraw Article 50 and this is likely to be accepted. The UK is struggling already to fund public services and to staff such things as NHS and Prisons. If UK treasury loses income due to Brexit issues and UK business/services have trouble caused by Brexit, then no Government could turn a blind eye to a publuc that has changed its mind.

[tobyjugg2]

I'm finding it a little difficult at the moment due to things being said that we were not informed of prior to the referendum so I thought I would use your post to express my thoughts

 

 

 

What do you think?

 

I do have to say that as I voted to leave, I should still be certain of my beliefs however since the 'fallout' and new 'facts' coming to light, I have no real idea if my choice was right or wrong and I would assume other leave voters are having the same 'wobbles'

Too late now.

 

 

The 59B is the calculated figure - near as damn it. Politicians will juggle with that both in how it is interpreted, and how it is 'paid for' eg they could negotiate, buried in small print, that the enfd figure is reported as 32B but there is 27B effectively paid to the EU in 'other ways'

BUT that 59B broadly is the figure.

 

What worth 'informal' discussions which binds no-one?

India could say informally 'free trade' yippee, but the actuality is they buy nothing from us and sell craploads of services etc cheap to us.

Great for the profiteers at the 'top', devastating for UK service industry jobs and Tax revenues

 

Regarding the vote - You aren't alone polls (for whatever worth they are ) is that the vote if held today would be reversed, and thats still with many people still believing the proven LIES of Gove and Johnson and fascist nationlist rhetoric of Farage. (Dont get me wrong - the right sort of nationalism is great - just not Farages sort)

If people were honestly and properly informed - in UNDERSTANDABLE summary as I do try to do, I firmly belive the vote wouldn't even be close and remain would walk it

BUT these major issues with migration (an some other issues) still need to be addressed

 

What I and Unc have stated here is just the thin end of the wedge. Far worse IS coming.

 

Farage and his ilk want rid of the ECJ so they can get rid of workers rights and expand profiteering, already linked here.

BUT

ANY trade deal will obviously require the UK to answer to the ECJ - simple.

 

Any politician worth his salt would know all these things we have posted here - and please correct me if I have been shown to be Incorrect in ANYTHING I have posted (not weasel words twisting the core meaning - really wrong)

So those politicians (Farage, Johnson, Gove et al) are either consistently incompetent in favour of their own twisted perceptions, or liars - even if you call it their 'perception of the truth'.

 

 

Is the EU all rosy - is it heck as like, but our politicians (Labour and Tory) have had DECADES to address these - but they had other irons to heat.

 

Farage - he's just a grandstander.

[tobyjugg2]

oh - and all this rubbish about guaranteeing the rights of eu citizens 'up front' is rubbish

Lets not forget that pretty much everyone believes immigration was the MAIN issue in the Brexit vote.

 

They should get reciprocal rights as part of the negotiation

If Brits in Poland get no benefits, then Poles in UK get no benefits

If Brits in Poland pay for medical care, then Poles in England pay for medical care.

and the negotiations need to cater for the differentials.

 

One of the big issues is that they get better benefits here than we do there - that needs to stop, as does exporting benefits.

 

These issues should have been sorted as part of the EU years/decades ago.

 

All the Brexit referendum REALLY gave the government was a demand (far more than a mandate) TO sort these issues.

[fletch70]

Cit B

 

Maybe there just are not the suppliers from the UK or the quality isn't as good.

[fletch70]

oh - and all this rubbish about guaranteeing the rights of eu citizens 'up front' is rubbish

Lets not forget that pretty much everyone believes immigration was the MAIN issue in the Brexit vote.

 

They should get reciprocal rights as part of the negotiation

If Brits in Poland get no benefits, then Poles in UK get no benefits

If Brits in Poland pay for medical care, then Poles in England pay for medical care.

and the negotiations need to cater for the differentials.

 

One of the big issues is that they get better benefits here than we do there - that needs to stop, as does exporting benefits.

 

These issues should have been sorted as part of the EU years/decades ago.

 

All the Brexit referendum REALLY gave the government was a demand (far more than a mandate) TO sort these issues.

There are already rules in place for EU citizens to need health cover for non urgent care

[unclebulgaria67]

There are already rules in place for EU citizens to need health cover for non urgent care

 

Yep. It is only the NHS that is too relaxed by not botherlng to ask for any payment. If you have a minor injury in say Spain for example, you are likely to have to pay for some things and you might have Travel Insurance to cover it.

 

Most EU countries have many rules they apply and it is not totally free access to treatment like the NHS.

[tobyjugg2]

There are already rules in place for EU citizens to need health cover for non urgent care

 

 

Thats about as informative as 'Brexit means Brexit'

 

Are you referring to policy in the UK re none UK EU citizens, or some common policy which applies to all EU citizens wherever they are?

Or something else?

[tobyjugg2]

Healthcare policy is a national issue NOT an EU issue , apart from some areas considered EMERGENCY which I'm sure we would all expect to be dealt with as it occurs ...

 

"EU countries are free to establish their own rules on entitlement to benefits and services. For example, if you apply for medical care in the country where you now live, you probably won't be entitled to exactly the same services for the same price as in your country of origin."

 

http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/health/when-living-abroad/health-insurance-cover/index_en.htm

 

http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/AboutNHSservices/uk-visitors/visiting-england/Pages/visitors-from-the-eea.aspx

 

 

http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/health/unplanned-healthcare/temporary-stays/index_en.htm

 

 

 

Lets get back to the primarily (but certainly not exclusively) Anglo Saxon perception that it should be expected that our politicians LIE to us and that there is nothing we should or could do about it.

 

Now the Referendum and its ongoing aftermaths have really brought this to the fore in my opinion, and I'm not focusing on little white lies, or eeven slightly twisted interpretations, and not even the horrendous and crucial lies of laxity bad a s they are -

Cameron with his we are better off - but I'm not going to justify that in any way

Corbyn with all his lies and laxity and omission re the Labour parties stance on the EU

 

I'm talking about outright lies (IMO) and serious lies of omission (I'm saying nowt) like May and Davis with their 'it must be kept secret' BS (Serious Lies of Omission)

 

Straight forward and serious LIES (IMO)Johnson and Gove standing in front of big red buses saying 350M a week more for the NHS and lying about immigrants taking up house, schools, and NHS beds - when even if they are it is UK politicians who implement policies that enable that.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-leave-wipes-nhs-350m-claim-and-rest-of-its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html

 

and Paul Nutthal UKIPS latest wannabe Führer lying through his teeth (and websites etc) trying to get a seat in Parliament

Claiming he was at hilsborough - seems he wasn't

Claiming he lost close friends - he didnt

Claiming he has a degree - he doesnt

Claiming he lives in a house to legalise his standing for election - he didnt

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/14/ukip-leader-admits-claim-that-he-lost-close-friends-at-hillsborough-was-false

 

 

Thats before we even start with Trump.

 

We should not accept this. In my opinion, these sort of things are the cornerstone of all that is corrupt and just plain wrong in our political class.

Edited February 15, 2017 by Andyorch
edited

[fletch70]

Sorry Toby

I was referring to non British EU citizens living in the U.K. They only become entitled to free non urgent care apparently when they have paid into the system. All well and good you may say but...if someone marries a British citizen and doesn't work for whatever reason, maybe bringing up kids or even caring for the spouses family, there is a danger they will need insurance for ever.

I am told this by a relative who lives here and has been married to an eu national in the uk for 15 years

[tobyjugg2]

Sorry Toby

I was referring to non British EU citizens living in the U.K. They only become entitled to free non urgent care apparently when they have paid into the system. All well and good you may say but...if someone marries a British citizen and doesn't work for whatever reason, maybe bringing up kids or even caring for the spouses family, there is a danger they will need insurance for ever.

I am told this by a relative who lives here and has been married to an eu national in the uk for 15 years

 

https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/immigration/visas-family-and-friends/getting-a-visa-for-your-spouse-or-partner-to-live-in-the-uk/

 

 

If your spouse or partner is from outside the EEA, they'll have to pay £200 per year for healthcare in the UK, as part of their visa application. This is known as the NHS healthcare surcharge.

This charge is not optional.

You can find out more about NHS healthcare surcharges on .GOV.UK.

[ericsbrother]

I hope that when we leave properly (article 50 isnt the way to go, repealing the 1972 Axt would have been) we should negotiate deals with each country. I know that the bureaucrats will hate that but if you tell Poland for example that we are going to do a deal with Georgia to supply farmers with slave labour instead od EU citizens they would be happy to break ranks with the other 26 countries to do what is right for their citizens. Nothing to stop any country entering into treaties with any other country, just that the EU says the sky will fall in if you do. Pah! each will rush to get the best deal for their people rather than all fall together but they will all make noises to show some sort of fake solidarity

oh - and all this rubbish about guaranteeing the rights of eu citizens 'up front' is rubbish

Lets not forget that pretty much everyone believes immigration was the MAIN issue in the Brexit vote.

 

They should get reciprocal rights as part of the negotiation

If Brits in Poland get no benefits, then Poles in UK get no benefits

If Brits in Poland pay for medical care, then Poles in England pay for medical care.

and the negotiations need to cater for the differentials.

 

One of the big issues is that they get better benefits here than we do there - that needs to stop, as does exporting benefits.

 

These issues should have been sorted as part of the EU years/decades ago.

 

All the Brexit referendum REALLY gave the government was a demand (far more than a mandate) TO sort these issues.

[unclebulgaria67]

I agree Article 50 is a flawed process and the person who wrote it said he was not sure it would actually work. It is far too complicated. Much more complicated than just repealing the 1972 act.

 

Article 50 is the only option available and it might mean that Brexit never happens. 40 years worth of law/rules, ongoing liabilities, trading issues, as well as economics to deal with.

[unclebulgaria67]

Warning about Brexit from CEO of Ryanair should be taken seriously.

 

Ryanair: Britain faces NO flights to Europe in March 2019

 

http://dailym.ai/2kCsHRT

[tobyjugg2]

I hope that when we leave properly (article 50 isnt the way to go, repealing the 1972 Axt would have been) we should negotiate deals with each country. I know that the bureaucrats will hate that but if you tell Poland for example that we are going to do a deal with Georgia to supply farmers with slave labour instead od EU citizens they would be happy to break ranks with the other 26 countries to do what is right for their citizens. Nothing to stop any country entering into treaties with any other country, just that the EU says the sky will fall in if you do. Pah! each will rush to get the best deal for their people rather than all fall together but they will all make noises to show some sort of fake solidarity

 

What utter twaddle.

 

If that was the case we could have just said we are not taking any more immigrants or paying any benefits, and we are taxing your imports and not paying owt on exports - while staying part of the EU with all the benefits

 

It was the Brexit Bullshooters that kept shouting its all the EU making us do this we need to leave.

Strange that you are now saying the other countries in the EU should do exactly what we didn't/couldn't ...

 

Stop spouting Farage Fantasies, or is it just Johnson Jibberish

 

Gonna be interesting to see jow well the new lier (oops typo - I mean leader) of the National Front (oops flingers typoing - I mean UKIP) does now his lies )oops - other peoples mistakes) are hitting all the news services.

[tobyjugg2]

I agree Article 50 is a flawed process and the person who wrote it said he was not sure it would actually work. It is far too complicated. Much more complicated than just repealing the 1972 act.

 

Article 50 is the only option available and it might mean that Brexit never happens. 40 years worth of law/rules, ongoing liabilities, trading issues, as well as economics to deal with.

 

 

Effectively we could just revoke the treaty, but that would effectively end all our trade with the EU until basic afreements were made as we would be in breach of our commiyments - like the 50 odd billion we are commited to owing them.

 

Could we drop onto wto rules - maybe but not certainly as the EU could refuse to trade with us at all until they were sorted.

Revoking the treaty would also lose all the financial and service sectors passporting access to the EU immediately - probably completely collapsing those sectors in the UK overnight

- imagine 30% of the UK's GDP erased overnight. The possibility of Real national collapse.

 

It is an option on paper ONLY - not in reality.

[tobyjugg2]

Healthcare policy is a national issue NOT an EU issue , apart from some areas considered EMERGENCY which I'm sure we would all expect to be dealt with as it occurs ...

 

"EU countries are free to establish their own rules on entitlement to benefits and services. For example, if you apply for medical care in the country where you now live, you probably won't be entitled to exactly the same services for the same price as in your country of origin."

 

http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/health/when-living-abroad/health-insurance-cover/index_en.htm

 

http://www.nhs.uk/NHSEngland/AboutNHSservices/uk-visitors/visiting-england/Pages/visitors-from-the-eea.aspx

 

 

http://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/health/unplanned-healthcare/temporary-stays/index_en.htm

 

 

 

Lets get back to the primarily (but certainly not exclusively) Anglo Saxon perception that it should be expected that our politicians LIE to us and that there is nothing we should or could do about it.

 

Now the Referendum and its ongoing aftermaths have really brought this to the fore in my opinion, and I'm not focusing on little white lies, or eeven slightly twisted interpretations, and not even the horrendous and crucial lies of laxity bad a s they are -

Cameron with his we are better off - but I'm not going to justify that in any way

Corbyn with all his lies and laxity and omission re the Labour parties stance on the EU

 

I'm talking about outright lies (IMO) and serious lies of omission (I'm saying nowt) like May and Davis with their 'it must be kept secret' BS (Serious Lies of Omission)

 

Straight forward and serious LIES (IMO)Johnson and Gove standing in front of big red buses saying 350M a week more for the NHS and lying about immigrants taking up house, schools, and NHS beds - when even if they are it is UK politicians who implement policies that enable that.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-vote-leave-wipes-nhs-350m-claim-and-rest-of-its-website-after-eu-referendum-a7105546.html

 

and Paul Nutthal UKIPS latest wannabe Führer lying through his teeth (and websites etc) trying to get a seat in Parliament

Claiming he was at hilsborough - seems he wasn't

Claiming he lost close friends - he didnt

Claiming he has a degree - he doesnt

Claiming he lives in a house to legalise his standing for election - he didnt

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/14/ukip-leader-admits-claim-that-he-lost-close-friends-at-hillsborough-was-false

 

 

Thats before we even start with Trump.

 

We should not accept this. In my opinion, these sort of things are the cornerstone of all that is corrupt and just plain wrong in our political class.

 

and UKIP continues to be caught out in the same sort of lies that drove much of the Brexit vote

 

In addition to those above, and suddenly claiming that UKIP love the NHS, rather than his more usual stance that the NHS (along with immigrants and the EU) is all thats wrong with the UK and should be privatised immediately,

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/18/paul-nuttall-under-pressure-over-claims-he-served-on-charity-board

 

The upcoming by elections grow more interesting by the minute.

[tobyjugg2]

lets take a quick review of the possibleissues and drivers surrounding the upcoming by elections in Stoke and Copeland

 

 

The Headline issues are

NHS

Tories

Tory candidate has said she is 100% against the downgrading ofthe local hospital, BUT Teressa May has repeatedly avoided confirming any support for her candidates stance even in her visit there to 'support' that Tory candidate. Which seems to clearly show that the NHS will get continued cuts from the Tories and the local hospital will be downgraged. No last minute 'announcement' should be trusted any more than UKIP lies regarding their intent for healthcare.

 

UKIP

Have long standing full blown shut down/privatise policies which are changed very temporarily (they lie) if its in their interest to do so.

 

Labour

Support for NHS is part and parcel of the Labour ethos as stated - but with Corbyn - who knows what that will be. Corbyn has had the sense to stay away and not drag the none- Corbyn local labour selection (unlike May).

 

Lib Dems

probably the most rational and coherent policies on supporting the Energy/Nuclear and the NHS and healthcare

 

 

Brexit or Bremain

 

Tories

- With Maybe Maybenot who knows what we will get - but probably hard brexit with some bits for the rich and privileged (and maybe International car manufacturers and International bankers)

 

Ukip

a subset of What the Tories offer AT BEST - and they LIE.

Labour

Whatever the Tories want they will support except for 'moral objections'

 

Lib Dems

Anti Hard Brexit. anti Brexit

 

 

 

Nuclear energy

Tories

Yes as long as someone else pays (oe at least someone else who we can give unlimited taxpayer funds to so they can say someone else is paying).Toshiba in this case. So the Tories are hiving off our energy utilities and current and future tax payers money to foreign interests

BUT look at the massive problems Toshiba and EDF are having with their nuclear energy businesses - EDF and Toshiba are proving consistantly unable to meet their nuclear commitments around the world)

 

Labour

Corbyn is 100% anti-nuclear in all its forms - and pro disarmament in an increasingly dangerous world - but has no real plans for acheivable alternatives

 

UKIP

You simply cant believe a word they say.

 

Lib Dems

For nuclear energy, 'broadly' against weapons and nuclear armament escalation. May be far more 'UK owned nuclear positive' than the Tories

 

 

 

 

So if your overwhelming issue is:

(provided the voting is based on informed logic (fat chance) rather than emotive rhetoric)

Bremain = Lib Dems

 

BREXIT = Tories (with some deals for the fortunate) or UKIP (just tell 'em to FO)

 

Support The NHS = LibDems or Labour

 

Destroy the NHS = UKIP

 

Nuclear+ - its a vote for Libdems or Tory (but more/all owned by foreigners with the Tories)

 

No Nuclear- = Labour

 

 

Mix and matches

 

Privatise/end NHS and end Healthcare and Hardest Brexit = UKIP

Slower Privatisation/erosion of NHS and Hard Brexit = Tories

Nuclear+ AND Brexit+ = Tories

NHS+ AND Brexit+ = Labour

NHS+ and Bremain+ = Lib DemsNuclear+ AND the NHS+ = Lib Dems

 

Multi-choice

 

Like people who BS and Lie enough to make all the others seem like saints = UKIP

else

 

Nuclear+ and continued NHS erosion/privatisation and Brexit = Tories

No Nuclear and NHS+ and Brexit = Labour

Nuclear+ and NHS+ and Brexit+ = No real option

Nuclear power+ and NHS+ and Bremain+ = Lib Dems

 

 

Outcome issues for parties

 

Will be a disaster for UKIP in this heavy Brexit vote area if they lose votes, or even dont win. and with the proven LIES and nothing to offer - they should be boycotted

 

Will be a disaster for Labour if they lose both by elections

 

Will be a massive statement by the public if LibDems win even 1, or even gain LARGE voter %

 

Tory losses will be further damnation on the may government that:

Is not elected and hence has NO mandate

 

 

Cant argue too much with this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-by-elections-paul-nuttall-ukip-tony-blair-a7587371.html

[fletch70]

Jesus

The Daily Fail actually writing something that maybe questions Brexit

[tobyjugg2]

I wonder if the changes these by elections might indicate would make a general election possible?

 

If UKIP are effectively ended (as they should be) would May be assured enough that the Tory vote would not be split?

[tobyjugg2]

Straight from the horses mouth

 

Article 50 Author Lord Kerr Warns Brexit Will Only Benefit ‘Bullingdon Boys’

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/article-50-author-lord-kerr-warns-brexit-will-only-benefit-bullingdon-boys_uk_58ad54fae4b0d0a6ef464852

 

 

 

“It is a sad fact that it will not be those who got us into this fix who will suffer. The Bullingdon boys will be just fine; the country may not.”

[tobyjugg2]

Well, so much for Brexit UK the world trader

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/23/brexit-could-help-eu-strike-free-trade-deal-india-meps

 

"The EU believes it may stand a better chance of striking a free trade deal with India after the UK leaves the union, despite the importance Britain attaches to trade with its old colony.

 

A document drawn up by MEPs on the powerful trade committee analysing the impact of Brexit on the EU’s trade talks around the world suggests India’s desire to maintain tariffs on scotch whisky has hindered progress on a EU-India deal.

 

Theresa May’s opposition to India being given plentiful visa opportunities for its skilled workers in the UK has also been a hurdle in previous trade talks."

 

 

 

So much for great deals for the UK with India post Brexit

More like great deals for the EU with India post Brexit.

 

Clearly shows that with Brexit requirements (immigration control) India is off the cards - unless the immigration Brexit requirement is ignored or bypassed.

[tobyjugg2]

Countries line up to host European Medicines Agency after it leaves UK

 

Regulatory body set to move from post-Brexit UK attracting many suitors keen to take the 900 highly skilled workers

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/15/countries-host-european-medicines-agency-leaves-uk-post-brexit

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-medicines-idUKKCN0VZ25P

[unclebulgaria67]

I would bet my last penny that Brexit will never happen. The latest news is that the government will be forced to let Parliament decide whether Brexit happens and if so on what terms.

 

Suggest people listen to the House of Lords speeches earlier this week, with many very experienced people explaining how difficult Brexit would be and that government is not equipped to implement it.

[tobyjugg2]

I would bet my last penny that Brexit will never happen. The latest news is that the government will be forced to let Parliament decide whether Brexit happens and if so on what terms.

 

I truly hope you are right, but everything is demonstrating that article 50 WILL be triggered.

May, driven by the Tory right will not let go easily.

Even then there are still key issues with the EU that will need addressing.

 

 

Suggest people listen to the House of Lords speeches earlier this week, with many very experienced people explaining how difficult Brexit would be and that government is not equipped to implement it.

 

Since when would not having a clue stop them?