Article 50 Discussion

[tobyjugg2]

I voted leave but only because I based my decision entirely on a bus slogan and chose to misinterpret that slogan too, regarding the 350m to the NHS every week.

 

Therefore ALL leave voters were mislead. I demand another referendum.

 

Absolutely, and dont forget to include all those who didn't choose to misinterprete the Bus and Brexit misrepresentations - so it really was "ALL leave voters were mislead" whether they chose to be mislead or not.

 

AND as already clearly shown - Farage hisself firmly believes and has clearly declared 52% - 48% (or a close decision in other quotes) is "unfinished business" which needs "a second referendum".

 

So however tongue between cheeks or not - what you wrote here is literally correct

[tobyjugg2]

Peter Dowd, the Labour MP, starts by wishing everyone happy Christmas. In the light of Boris Johnson’s display of foot in mouth disease, does May now accept that putting FO against his name should have been an instruction, not a job offer?

Theresa May also wishes everyone a happy Christmas. She will be back on Monday for a statement about the EU council meeting. Johnson is doing an “absolutely excellent job”. He is an FFS - a fine foreign secretary.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/14/pmqs-may-corbyn-brexit-david-davis-and-jeremy-corbyn-prepare-for-last-pmqs-of-2016-politics-live

 

 

 

They do read these forums

Search here is rubbish else I'd link the post

 

[WarrenBuffet]

"Putting FO against his name should have been an instruction, not a job offer?"

 

That made me laugh out loud!.

[tobyjugg2]

Here you go in black and white

"Davis made clear that the UK would seek a trade deal at the same time as negotiations over exiting under article 50, but that preventing non-tariff barriers to services was probably more important than stopping the imposition of tariffs to goods."

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/14/brexit-plan-will-not-be-published-until-february-says-davis

 

So tax payers paying money to the EU (in some way) for the City financial services sector to maintain access, while everyone else pays more to import and export goods. The 'City' will undoubtedly continue to pay sod all taxes in the UK as already linked in this thread, while suppressing 'proper' UK banks and building societies that serve UK customers..

There was NO doubt this was on the cards.

[tobyjugg2]

from The Waugh Zone report on the EU meeting May scuttled away from without NT relevant comment

 

" the Czech foreign minister confirmed that EU negotiator Michel Barnier was demanding a £50bn ‘exit fee’ for the UK. The FT reports that France is urging the bloc to curb the City’s role as a euro clearing house"

[unclebulgaria67]

I don't think Brexit will get anywhere near off the ground.

 

David Davis says that they are only starting to look at all of the various issues and don't really have any idea of a plan. It is a very complicated process to engage in and may take 10 years, according to several very well informed people, who have commented over recent weeks.

 

The EU commission will be in charge of the process and have huge resources which they will use to make sure that the UK is not allowed to leave on decent terms. They cannot afford to see any country leave the EU and prosper afterwards. The UK will be dealt a very poor deal and there will be many powerful business interests in the UK who will pressure government to call off Brexit. UK government given the level of national debt, cannot afford to do anything which wrecks the economy.

[tobyjugg2]

I don't think Brexit will get anywhere near off the ground.

 

David Davis says that they are only starting to look at all of the various issues and don't really have any idea of a plan. It is a very complicated process to engage in and may take 10 years, according to several very well informed people, who have commented over recent weeks.

 

The EU commission will be in charge of the process and have huge resources which they will use to make sure that the UK is not allowed to leave on decent terms. They cannot afford to see any country leave the EU and prosper afterwards. The UK will be dealt a very poor deal and there will be many powerful business interests in the UK who will pressure government to call off Brexit. UK government given the level of national debt, cannot afford to do anything which wrecks the economy.

 

perhaps, but as actively aborting the Brexit process would pretty much necessitate a general election, and that would also probably not solve really anything

 

It would seem Brexit under WTO rules is the best option we have.

The only other options are:

 

Hard Brexit for everyone except Financiers and selected 'captians of industry' - who will have special visas and access paid for by the British taxpayers

 

Go to the nation (a new not repeat referendum) will options that will include remain in the EU - and hope for one of them to get an overwhelming majority - fat chance

 

 

May knows that the EU has ALL the cards and is playing for time hoping other EU members will start exit proceedings.

[obiter dictum]

Are we not forgetting the WTO has something like 160 members and they all, just like the EU member states have to agree for the UK to become a member of that organisation. And even with the WTO we will still have to pay into that organisations and tariffs at 15%

[fletch70]

OD

As far as I know, we are and have been a member of the WTO

We are a member in our own right as well as being part of the EU

 

I see the danger being, May triggers article 50, in 2 years time the EU refuses to extend the process , we are dumped. The only possible saving grace would be if the damage to the eurozone would be so great as to persuade the rest to let us extend negotiations.

 

March 2019 is getting close to the end of the parliamentary cycle and should it all go south, May will be consigned to dustbin of history. That is if she makes it that long

[tobyjugg2]

Are we not forgetting the WTO has something like 160 members and they all, just like the EU member states have to agree for the UK to become a member of that organisation. And even with the WTO we will still have to pay into that organisations and tariffs at 15%

 

As fletch informs - most of that is already dealt with

.. and the tariffs apply both ways.

 

Its almost certain that the car industry will likely get a quick reciprocal Tariff free or tariff matched deal.

 

 

The big issue is the UK taxpayer paying the EU for preferential access (and movement) for financiers who pay sod all tax into the UK or EU.

Would that be an acceptable compromise for you Brexiters? or NOT?

'Interim deals' are of course also just paying for preferential treatment for financiers by the back door.

 

 

... otherwise hard Brexit WTO rules after 2 years past trigger while deals are negotiated is the only option to a fresh referendum if negotiations fail or take to long if there is a clear majority voting for that.

 

There will then almost certainly be a fresh Scottish referendum, and if that is successful - possible a Welsh one - then who knows.

At the least very federalisation of the UK would seem to be a significant likely/possible outcome.

 

 

I think the reality is really starting to come home to many people who thought this was going to be the EU, India, Australia, the US etc running to our door begging for deals.

[tobyjugg2]

I think the reality is really starting to come home to many people who thought this was going to be the EU, India, Australia, the US etc running to our door begging for deals.

 

Well - other than to sell us stuff

- and we need to sell our stuff (which is mostly foreign owned now anyway)

[citizenB]

Are we not forgetting the WTO has something like 160 members and they all, just like the EU member states have to agree for the UK to become a member of that organisation. And even with the WTO we will still have to pay into that organisations and tariffs at 15%

 

 

Damned if you do and damned if you don't really

[WarrenBuffet]

That would still be cheaper than my local mechanic though, he charged me 40% Tax, Displayed the cost of parts that I could get them at (ie: VAT included) and then charged 20% on that price.!!!

 

 

I digress....

[tobyjugg2]

Now this up coming by election puts Labour in the drivers hot seat - rather than a passenger hot seat.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-mp-jamie-reed-quits-parliament-triggering-by-election-in-copeland_uk_585a815fe4b0f24da6e680ae

 

About time some Labour MP's did more than a bit of gutless winging about Corbyn and a few 'resignations from the (shadow) front bench - although this guy has an easier exit route than most would, and he's playing the exit game quite well.

 

 

'Safe' labour seat but population voted 60% Brexit.

 

What is Labours Brexit stance? I dunno - does anyone.

Corbyn seems to want Brexit, but keep welcoming immigrants!

Does he actually care at all what Labour voters, let alone the rest of the nation voted on?

- but of course the Corbynistas will probably just carry on saying 'stupid public just aren't getting our message else they would flock to us

- soon they will come to their senses - soon - soon..

 

 

If Labour get trounced down to 3rd or even 4th place - its got to confirm beyond any shadow of doubt that its the end for either Corbyn or the Labour party as a force in politics as it currently is

- not that Napoleon Corbyn will be likely to accept that.

 

 

If libdems make a big gains - equally telling re bounce against Brexit.

If ukip dont make big gains here - rather telling for them.

These are the two for in/out polarised votes.

 

 

If Labour don't win and only drop to second it will be bad enough but will leave them with excuses.

I hope Labour get trounced so we might have some chance of getting rid of Corbyn and McDonald and hopefully a more meaningful Labour party again.

[fletch70]

Corbyn wants Brexit because it is just a capitalist club. As a socialist he finds the EU against his principals. I admire the conviction but believe he should actually say it rather than trying to p,ease people.

 

Incidentally, apparently some Czechs see the EU as just another occupation, something they are very used to having spent several centuries being occupied by Austrians, Germans, The USSR ,

[tobyjugg2]

and I find it utterly definitive that while the Americans are at least fining these corrupt banks for their practices, and taking them to court when they resist

one example:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-barclays-mortgages-idUKKBN14B2AV

.. here in the UK protecting them appears to be the cornerstone of the UK's Brexit strategy ...

https://www.ft.com/content/a8ec5e90-938c-11e6-a1dc-bdf38d484582

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-single-market-theresa-may-to-pay-billions-for-access-report-a7365226.html

[tobyjugg2]

About time the reports/professional analysts started coming to the same inescapable conclusion:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/hard-brexit-predicted-by-uk-in-a-changing-europe-think-tank-theresa-may-boris-johnson-new-study-single-market-no-customs-union_uk_585ba5dee4b00768ddce2fc7?8am8sce1qmjxy1fw29&utm_hp_ref=uk

 

 

Theresa Maybe-Maybenot say to EU:

'I want free access to EU markets and travel for the UK City of London financiers - whatever their nationality - including Russians, Arabs, Chinese, Japanese and Americans'

 

EU replies:

Ho Ho HO, Paris, Frankfurt and Eire are lovely this and every time of year

 

 

Theresa Maybe-Maybenot and Dopey Duck say to EU:

'If you dont give free access to EU markets and travel for the UK city financiers I wont let your citizens stay in the UK

 

EU replies:

Then sadly UK citizens will no longer be able to stay in EU countries and you will get 2 million voting citizens back in your country very upset with you and looking to use their votes.

You will also need to explain to your Brexit voting farming area citizens why they will now have to work 16 hour shifts in fields in all weathers for less than minimum wage.

 

 

Theresa Maybe-Maybenot and Dopey Duck say to EU:

'If you dont let our City of London financiers have free access and travel I will slap tariffs on your German and French cars and parts coming here.

 

EU replies:

then we will do the same to UK car manufacturing. Please go and explain that to Toyota and tell them to permanently hold off on their UK investment. We have some nice opportunities for them here in the EU - they are looking at a lovely spot in Poland as we speak.

 

 

Theresa Maybe-Maybenot and Dopey Duck say to EU:

We have some secret tactics that you, our trading partners of decades, know nothing about, we will use them if you dont give free access to EU markets and travel for the UK city financiers.

 

EU replies:

This is a serious matter. Please wait outside while we discuss this serious matter.

 

 

As Theresa Maybe-Maybenot and Dopey Duck exit the room they hear:

'bring out the schnapps and patisseries and lets get this party started

- bring in the German French and RoI finance ministers and the UK City of London financiers'

[unclebulgaria67]

The Brexit negotiations will be a complete farce and get nowhere as Toby last post describes.

 

Government won't be able to go for a hard Brexit, outside of single market and customs union, as that would be blocked by Parliament. If necessary, i can see Parliament voting down the Government in a vote of no confidence. Theresa May might then be forced out and an early general election is possible.

 

Within the next year or two, the majority of the country will be against leaving the EU.

[tobyjugg2]

The Brexit negotiations will be a complete farce and get nowhere as Toby last post describes.

 

Government won't be able to go for a hard Brexit, outside of single market and customs union, as that would be blocked by Parliament. If necessary, i can see Parliament voting down the Government in a vote of no confidence. Theresa May might then be forced out and an early general election is possible.

 

Within the next year or two, the majority of the country will be against leaving the EU.

 

Problem is far to few will even be aware of these issues, let alone understand the consequences.

 

I can see a general election being called when the article 50 trigger hits BIG issues despite Corbynite Labour stating they will be supporting it (with purely moral objections of course).

 

If the polls are even close to being right - and we aren't talking about 1 or 2 percentage points here, then Tory/May will be returned with a probably improved majority

- unless there is a MAJOR shift to Libdems on a remain ticket - unlikely in the quantities needed, even with a very likely Labour collapse as many ex Labour votes may go UKIP or even Tory almost as likely as LibDem.

 

Pretty much all Labour would need to move en-mass to LibDem to make a difference - yet if the Tory's still won, as is likely, the Tory's would have the mandate, possibly with an increased right wing nationalist UKIP pushing harder.

 

So gets us nowhere.

 

 

The only thing that might work is a major Tory implosion; which is on the cards; PLUS getting rid of Corbyn/mass Labour MP party resignations - unlikely as they value their seats more than their morals and duty to the populace - short sighted as many will probably lose their seats relatively shortly anyway if nothing changes in Labour.

 

 

The real problem is that Brexiters are more passionate about their cause than Bremainers, and a passionate minority with a limited focus will always win against a spit majority with far steeper odds than they currently have.

 

 

Hard Brexit IS coming - and I firmly believe that it will be a better option than pretty much any possible soft Brexit.

This despite me still being even more sure that remaining part of the EU and working for changes that should have been worked for years ago is by far the best option for the UK.

(Even Scottish independence wouldn't be so harsh a blow with the UK as part of the EU)

 

 

 

THE issue is that the EU also needs to change - and it isnt.

The UK should have been working for these changes for decades - they aren't even doing it NOW.

 

Freedom of movement needs to be Freedom of movement to work - free get a job anywhere in the EU - then move - not move for benefits.

but of course that would benefit the skilled and educated - unfair scream the left wing moralists - to damn right says I.

Migrant workers would continue to be that - migrant workers - but with a contract with stated rights and requirements - which would both protect them and the countries they go to and level the playing fields somewhat.

 

Merkel could and should have been slapped down by ALL the other member states when she said all migrants welcome - come here to Germany

- and then compound it by stating all the EU members MUST take their share of these illegal migrants (not refugees) and using EU law to try and force illegal migrants on other members

- utterly insane.

 

 

So we need the EU to show some change before there is any likelihood of real change of emotive opinion in the UK.

Is that being worked towards - NO - its just all out save the financiers

 

Now if the EU changed those issues they would really stuff the UK government and show them to be the small minded self (or at best small elite) serving tosswads most of our 'leading lights' are

- mind you Maybe-Maybenot would just claim her pressure caused it

- but job done all the same and May would be the PM who saved the UK from Camerons Folly and changed the EU.

[tobyjugg2]

A few EU changes which might change everything summarised

 

Require a job offer to move/migrate (eu or other)

 

Implement the migrant workers rights and responsibilities

 

Round up the illegal migrants and ship them back where they came from NOT to other EU states (difficult to sort and arrange as they have no documentation and claim persecution - but that is Germanys cost and problem - they let them in)

Any that have jobs can apply to return or stay under the new working migration rules.

[obiter dictum]

The UK is in no position to demand anything from the EU in any negotiations

[tobyjugg2]

The UK is in no position to demand anything from the EU in any negotiations

 

Absolutely - but the EU needs to change anyway - so they will probably end up doing something like this anyway - two birds with one stone

- unless they now WANT rid of the UK of course.

[fletch70]

Ironic thought for the day

 

In the Czech Republic there is a Philip Morris factory not ten minutes walk from a church decorated with the sculls and bones of thousands of bodies.

[determindator]

Ironic thought for the day

 

In the Czech Republic there is a Philip Morris factory not ten minutes walk from a church decorated with the sculls and bones of thousands of bodies.

 

I wondered Fletch if this is the thread you wanted to post in

[fletch70]

Maybe having a tobacco giant in the Czech Republic will persuade a few Nimby brexiters that the EU isn't so bad.

Just for reference it's Kutna Hora

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedlec_Ossuary

 

Changing the topic, Merkel has announced if any legislative changes need to be made after the Berlin attack they will be. Interesting times

 

Bit out of touch I'm afraid, just got BBC news and the guardian website to go on