Turkey and the migrant crisis and M.E. situation

[tobyjugg2]

Turkey a NATO member in the area, yet clearly resists other NATO members requests (whether right or wrong - quite understandably in my view)

 

At least 1/2 - 2/3 of the 600,000+ illegal migrants/refugees in Europe this year are reported to have come through Turkey (France24 'conservative' estimate).

 

It would be easy to say (as the EU is requesting at the moment) that Turkey should better police its EU side borders to prevent the flow of migrants, yet Turkey has in the order of 2M refugees/migrants (probably far more) within its borders excluding those who have moved on.

- Who wouldn't want the refugees/migrants to move on in that situation, particularly given that a vast number of these migrants will hold hostile beliefs with regard to Turkey.

 

Its clear to me that Turkey is a major part of the problem in the area (although probably NOT through deliberate choice) yet is also one of the VERY few relatively safe exits routes.

 

What are peoples views on the situation, any realistic solutions and what people think of Turkeys actions as a member of NATO yet with direct and immediate security issues which would MOSTLY seem to be at odds with the rest of NATO's official stance?

 

Some things to consider (my opinions - generally very well researched)

* Turkey has long wanted a policed buffer zone along its borders, with refugees sent back into the buffer zone - the zones in the other countries borders.

* The Kurds want a self governing region and will fight anyone to get it. (They have recently fought Syrian Army and IS and have elements active against Turkey since the coming apart of the Turk/Kurd 'ceasefire') They undoubtedly feel let down by everyone, and claim the Turks are bombing Kurds who are actually fighting IS rather than IS - hence supporting IS. Supported by news reports including 'western' France24 and Euronews.

* Turkeys' apparent bombing of Kurds and NOT the IS troops fighting the Kurds (also reported from 'western' news channels) and would appear to show Turkey thinking the Kurds as more dangerous to Turkey than IS.

[obiter dictum]

Turkey is not a member state of the EU

 

If Turkey has a crisis on the mass Movement of people crossing their borders then that will be an issue for the UN, not the EU

[unclebulgaria67]

It is a total mess. The more bombs that are used will mean more work is required after the conflict to rebuild. Refugees won't return, if there is nothing left to return to.

 

There needs to be a ceasefire, negotiated by UN, Arab league, senior Islamic clerics etc. Stop the conflict for a week, start talking and seek a way to deal with the situation. It might mean that Syria is divided up for a temporary period, just to get some sense of security, with Muslim soldiers operating under a joint UN/Arab league command.

 

They need to sort it out soon, otherwise it will get worse. You could imagine what would happen if Russia bombed US special forces or US bombed Russian troops in error. The battlefield in Syria is confused with so many factions.

[tobyjugg2]

It might mean that Syria is divided up for a temporary period,

Now why should that be even considered by those under attack by foreign nations unclebulgaria?

 

Is the funding of a minority of radicals to start shooting people, which are then supported by external other nations justify regime change?

... Or should we all just mind our own business until actually attacked? and then have a limited and proportionate response?

 

.... As is actually required by international law and treaties, and does seem quite reasonable to me when not stretched beyond any meaning reasonable to normal people.

[obiter dictum]

The west has a moral and legal responsibility to help in clearing up this mess. It is the west that has been a catalyst in destabalising the whole of the middle east.

 

To go in and cause havoc, then withdraw like nothng has happened cannot be the answer. Look at Iraq, their millitary will never reach the training standards required of a western soldier. Iraq now is in a permanent state of Civil war because of this. Even Afganistan has now reverted back to the Taliban days of opium production and war lords.

 

I do not know the answer but it is not with Bullets and bombs, that is the biggest recruiting drive you can have seeing friends and families killed.

 

What is needed is a UN international Force to go in under direct control of the Security Council complete with Blue Berets to force a cease fire

 

The UN needs that credibility back after Kosovo

[tobyjugg2]

The fighters the west are 'supporting' do not want the west there, and we have no treaties with them

Assad does not want the west there, Russia is there supporting their official allies

Nato's Turkey does not seem to want the west there and had to be bought/bullied into allowing the use of Turkeys air space. Aside from NATO membership. Turkey has more economic ties with Russia than any of the other parties.

I have no idea what Israel thinks is best for them at the moment.

 

I think this is long past being a completely lost cause for whatever the 'west'/suadi's intent was - apart from apparent success at destabilising a vast swathe of the region - I can't see any real other goal - and all they can or should do is offer humanitarian aide.

 

The perhaps unacceptable downside is that they would have to leave the region to Assad and the Russians or 'Islamic' fundamentalists.

 

It would take the wisdom of Soloman to sort this out - and he would be of course unacceptable to far too many of those involved not matter how just a decision was made.

 

and here is a real further threat of escalation (turkey and the al nusra front)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-mideast-crisis-syria-nusra-idUSKCN0QF0WP20150810

 

 

and just how complicated

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/middle-east/article32206167.html

 

http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-designates-al-nusra-front-as-a-terrorist-organization/1929675.html

 

The recent Russian bombing was of Turkish supported, al-Qaeda linked al nusra

[tobyjugg2]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nati...e32206167.html

 

Heres 3 further different versions of the same story.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11882195/US-trained-Division-30-rebels-betrayed-US-and-hand-weapons-over-to-al-Qaedas-affiliate-in-Syria.html

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/lessons-from-the-bay-of-pigs-in-the-syrian-division-30-debacle/2015/08/20/f561a29e-4775-11e5-8ab4-c73967a143d3_story.html

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/trained-syrian-fighters-refusing-fight-150807114420346.html

 

 

and those of you with an understanding of the situation or strategy training will perhaps understand the multiple reasons why and who Russia is bombing in that area (and they aint moderates) and have an idea of the utter complexity of the situation.

 

Even if the Turks got what appears to be their desire and al-nusra were the 'military/Police' in the US enforced (fat chance now) buffer zone, the main Kurdish groups and al-nusra are mortal enemies.

 

Problem with the yanks is they simply don't learn from their own, let alone others mistakes. Most other folk do - especially American enemies pretending to be their allies.

Brute force with huge dollops (dollars) of ignorance.

 

Now, as everyone else has betrayed them, I wonder if the Kurds will formally align with Assad and the Russians with Russia guaranteeing with Assad that the Kurds will get whats agreed?

[Guest]

toby

dont know if you saw this in iraq thread re the 'history'

www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Middle%20East/1212bp_phillips.pdf

[tobyjugg2]

toby

dont know if you saw this in iraq thread re the 'history'

www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Middle%20East/1212bp_phillips.pdf

 

Yes I have seen that ford.

If you completely ignore the summary conclusions on page one, the article itself is quite informative.

[tobyjugg2]

Ford,

You might find the following interesting :

http://www.sott.net/article/273517-Study-US-regime-has-killed-20-30-million-people-since-World-War-Two

 

I'm not saying I support all the perspectives presented in that, I don't, but it makes interesting reading from a very anti US intervention/interference point of view.

 

Consider the facts presented, and there are some confirmed eye watering facts, but of course any conclusions should be your own.

Dirty tricks can be for the best of causes, its sorting out what are the true 'causes' that are the issue.

[unclebulgaria67]

Ford,

You might find the following interesting :

http://www.sott.net/article/273517-Study-US-regime-has-killed-20-30-million-people-since-World-War-Two

 

I'm not saying I support all the perspectives presented in that, I don't, but it makes interesting reading from a very anti US intervention/interference point of view.

 

Consider the facts presented, and there are some confirmed eye watering facts, but of course any conclusions should be your own.

Dirty tricks can be for the best of causes, its sorting out what are the true 'causes' that are the issue.

 

Very interesting and quite a lot is probably accurate. The US has always had a real problem with anyone who follows a different political ideology.

 

When the politics and the US defence contractors combine, they find causes to fight, in pursuit of US interests.

 

It could get worse, when other countries obtain the drone technology linked to satellites, which might be why the various space agencies are investing in anti satellite weapons. There have apparently been launches of various new satellites, which authorities refuse to provide details, other than it is for communications. There has been testing of lazer systems, which could destroy satellites and missiles. If it was ever possible to launch a drone which could not be easily detected, it would be possible to bomb anywhere in the world, without the target knowing until the bomb hits.

[obiter dictum]

Sobering thought

 

Since the birth of America in 1776

 

That has not been a single decade in which Uncle Sam has not been in armed conflict with someone

 

That is 215 years

 

Pick any war anyware on the globe since 1776 and there is a 91% probability Amerca played a part

[tobyjugg2]

Sobering thought

 

Since the birth of America in 1776

 

That has not been a single decade in which Uncle Sam has not been in armed conflict with someone

 

That is 215 years

 

Pick any war anyware on the globe since 1776 and there is a 91% probability Amerca played a part

 

There is an interesting documentary called world war 2 from space. With what seems to be some little known' information on the deals made by Churchill with the Americans in our hour of need.

 

We should let them stew in their own juices a lot more than we do. Turkey and France do, even Afghanistan is, are we now so much less than Turkey and France let alone Afghanistan?

[tobyjugg2]

Withe The saudi rats having to show their noses out of their bolt holes with

France actually bombing ISIS plus Assads forces and their allies opening up fronts

 

For those interested, who is who - one perspective, and some of the 'aligned' desires may surprise many

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/03/30/world/middleeast/middle-east-alliances-saudi-arabia-iran.html?_r=0

 

Its complicated LOL

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/untangling-the-middle-east-guide-to-regions-web-of-alliances/article21533409/

 

 

and a completely out of date and mostly 'official stance' rather than actual activity perspective, although clicking on some of the faces for a little more detail does give a little more detail often at odds with the face.

(no mention of Kurds, says Turkey no longer support al nusra, plus many other)

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/07/17/the_middle_east_friendship_chart.html

 

 

All this aside, there is only one leverage point for stability in Syria (and beyond if Syria falls) and that is Assad.

Problem now is if the west effectively force an agreement between Assad/Russia and the Kurds (+Iraq) that puts Nato Turkey in a far worse position than it ever was with Assads Syria.

 

If The Assad side wins wholesale, then Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be a new frontlines with lots of enraged, organised and military able enemies directly facing them.

 

The Yanks need to review their stance, and quickly. Many european governments seem to have already visibly realised this,

[Guest]

Ford,

You might find the following interesting :

http://www.sott.net/article/273517-Study-US-regime-has-killed-20-30-million-people-since-World-War-Two

 

I'm not saying I support all the perspectives presented in that, I don't, but it makes interesting reading from a very anti US intervention/interference point of view.

 

Consider the facts presented, and there are some confirmed eye watering facts, but of course any conclusions should be your own.

Dirty tricks can be for the best of causes, its sorting out what are the true 'causes' that are the issue.

 

cheers. at first sight, as you say, some interesting reading to get through.

 

yeah, that chatham paper is 3 yrs old, but still is 'informative'...

 

how about china poss also getting further involved in syria? whether the report is accurate...

eg http://www.wnd.com/2015/10/chinese-navy-looms-as-russia-strikes-syrian-rebels/

[unclebulgaria67]

cheers. at first sight, as you say, some interesting reading to get through.

 

yeah, that chatham paper is 3 yrs old, but still is 'informative'...

 

how about china poss also getting further involved in syria? whether the report is accurate...

eg http://www.wnd.com/2015/10/chinese-navy-looms-as-russia-strikes-syrian-rebels/

 

I just wonder what is going on in the world at the moment. Oil prices at a low, because of an over supply, which is kllling some economies such as Russia. China is buying large volumes of gold in preparation for a possible economic crash. The IMF are predicting a recession.

 

Syria is a mess, but so is Libya, Yemen, several African countries. The UN should be getting all countries together saying that they can not afford all this insecurity and they should work together to sort it out. They need more secure conditions, as the migration issues caused affect the whole region and Europe. Given the tough economic conditions, they need better conditions to support the economies, to provide for all the services and infrastructure people need.

 

I think there is a chance Russia and China may work with Western countries to tackle the situation, not just block any UN resolutions. It means Assad staying in power for the time being, which the UK/US will have to accept.

[tobyjugg2]

I just wonder what is going on in the world at the moment. Oil prices at a low, because of an over supply, which is kllling some economies such as Russia. China is buying large volumes of gold in preparation for a possible economic crash. The IMF are predicting a recession.

 

Syria is a mess, but so is Libya, Yemen, several African countries. The UN should be getting all countries together saying that they can not afford all this insecurity and they should work together to sort it out. They need more secure conditions, as the migration issues caused affect the whole region and Europe. Given the tough economic conditions, they need better conditions to support the economies, to provide for all the services and infrastructure people need.

 

I think there is a chance Russia and China may work with Western countries to tackle the situation, not just block any UN resolutions. It means Assad staying in power for the time being, which the UK/US will have to accept.

 

I'm quite certain the US stance is about to pretty much completely collapse,

Its now being announced from various sources and pretty much being confirmed by early release US sources that the free syrian army effectively does not exist 'any more'. Only surprise is it coming out.

 

The Saudi's have been declared apostate by the ISIS leader. So much for their funding of ISIS.

The Saudis are building up supplies and reinforcements to their supported factions in Syria - the russians will bomb them and any that get through are as likely to be used against the Saudis by the people they are supplying as against Assad.

All the Saudi crap is really coming out. Big poopoo likely to hit the fan.

Kuwait must be really crapping itself.

 

Without outright war with Russia, with Russia probably supported by China (2 security council members) the yanks cant stop Assad and the Russians expanding from their consolidated base, with international law on their side.

 

The yanks now need to avoid Lebanese Hezbollah committing to retaking a region of Syria and pincering toward the Russian/Assad zone, and Iranian forces coming in from their direction,

Israel will be satisfied with that rather than the alternative of US generated chaos run by ISIS on their doorstep.

 

That will worry Turkey and Israel although it seems Israel has Putins assurance of stability on the Israeli border - Nothing for Turkey who may end up with Hezbollah and Kurds in real Power on their Border if the yanks don;t cave in..

 

If they dont join in with the Russians and Assad, the yanks may well lose all.

Sadly the Yanks joining the Russians might save the Saudi's ass for a while - thats a big shame, but I think the yanks will need to distance themselves from the Saudi's PDQ, and possibly 'allow' regime change there to avoid being dragged down with them.

 

Cameron should thank the UK parliament for forcing limitation of his and our involvement.

 

I'm sure the Russians would prefer the west coalition join them in stabalising Syria under Assad and reduce the need for Hezbollah and Iranian involvement. Have they got the grace and sense to realise it and take it?

 

Theres a good chance that the Russians with Assad will do in a month what the Americans with 59 other nations have failed to do in a Year.

[tobyjugg2]

and with IS now attacking Turkish al-nusra (claiming to be fsa) now that IS relations with Turkey have disintegrated. and the al-nusra 'familes' fleeing

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-idUKKCN0YJ0LJ

 

 

and IS stronghold Mosul under attack and 50 - 150,000 refugees projected who didn't run when IS arrived there

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/iraqis-fleeing-isil-held-mosul-seek-refuge-syria-160527111756396.html

http://www.iraqinews.com/tag/mosul/

 

and the US now more openly fighting with the kurds to Turkeys complete ire

 

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/elite-us-troops-spotted-assisting-kurdish-led-forces-take-northern-raqqa-238319494

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/turkey-us-ypg/484631/

 

 

 

What about these thousands of 'refugees' who are running when IS strongholds are being overrun?

and Turkey is very peeved and will perhaps at least now, and understandably be very averse to having IS refugees in their territory ?

[tobyjugg2]

and now after years of profiting and protecting it, but who could trust them?

 

Turkey offers US joint Syria operation - without the Kurds

 

Ankara livid over US cooperation with YPG; offers to help open second front to close ISIS smuggling route, but only without Kurds.

 

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-offers-us-joint-syria-operation-without-kurds-1295731547

 

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/212976

[tobyjugg2]

Euronews + others now reporting Turkish Troops attacking Syrian and Kurdish Positions (but not IS positions)

http://www.euronews.com/2016/02/14/turkish-forces-attack-syrian-and-kurdish-positions-in-northern-syria/

 

This is after western forces drop ammunition in the area in a fighter supported drop

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/06/02/468659/United-States-Syria-Turkey-Aleppo