Moved abroad, thinking of funding a spread betting account with a credit card to try to avoid defaulting on UK loans

[UnluckyLuke]

Hello all,

 

Somebody please tell me I'm out of my mind. Or not!

 

I left the UK and moved to a non-EU country. I left behind two significant unsecured loans (so you get the picture, the biggest is for 20k). I will soon be defaulting on these. Because I do no plan to go back I expect little negative consequences if any at all. I still hate the idea of defaulting. I wont be defaulting because I can ran away with no consequences. I will be defaulting because I can't pay.

 

I just had a brilliant/idiotic idea, a possible solution to avoid defaulting.

 

I have unused credit cards (zero balances) in the UK and I have an unfunded spread betting account (have had it for quite a while). I could fund the spread betting account with 5k quid using a credit card and get out of debt through gambling! (told you it was idiotic, but it could still be very effective).

 

I would place a bet on an European stocks index which just hit the lowest point of the year. I could size the bet to be able to withstand a further say 3% to 5% drop. Trading is for traders (or gamblers). I am not a trader. What I would do is calculate the size of the bet based on the aforementioned 3%-5% threshold. Place it. And let it be until 31 of December.

 

Below is a scenario analysis with made up (but realistic) probabilities:

 

If Russia does not invade Ukraine and there are no further problems with Portuguese banks, then stocks should end the year sharply higher and I will be able to close the account, repay the loans, and avoid defaulting (the possibility of getting addicted if I win is ruled out). Probability 40%.

 

If Russia does invade Ukraine, the stocks should collapse and I would lose all. Probability 20%.

 

If Russia does not invade Ukraine but there are further problems with Portuguese banks, then stocks should end the year flat. But I would need to reduce the size of the account month by month to be able to pay the monthly loan installments, and a smaller account would increase the probability of getting wiped out on any move down. Probability 40%.

 

Summing it up odds would be 40% I win and avoid default, and 60% I lose and default on the current loans and the new credit card debt. The afterthought is, if it goes wrong, maybe a UK court could find I committed fraud by doing this, and then maybe this could chase me abroad, so in order to try to avoid a default that can't chase me abroad effectively and doesn't affect me much (aside of my ego, my conscious, and the remote dream of one day going back to the UK), I would be risking fraud, which could chase me abroad and could stop me from even visiting the UK on holidays (even if it couldn't chase me abroad I do not want to commit fraud!).

 

Any takers?

 

Thank you and God bless you,

LL

[Guest]

I think this one is a big no-no. Getting in to debt on purpose is not good. Even if you were to max out your credit cards by donating all of the available funds to charity, this would still be questionable.

 

Plus you would be increasing the country's overall debt if your plan went wrong. Only by a relatively tiny amount of course !

 

If you are keen on paying off the debts then maintain token payments and pay them off in the future for a smaller amount if you are able to.

 

I think that it would be fraud however I'm sure nothing would come of it as it would be difficult to prove and even more difficult to track you down. I doubt that they would figure out the connection.

 

PS for your other thread, you should tell them your new address to avoid the CCJs. I wish that I did that when I moved away as it would have avoided so much worry for me !

[UnluckyLuke]

Decided against it. Hope not to regret. The moment I considered this was 2 days before the bottom of the stock market. Would have entered at the the very bottom. My evaluation, at least short term, was spot on. Anyway, decided against it, and once a decision is made, made it is. The idea of maxing out a credit card from zero in 1 day and then defaulting on everything immediately seemed too risky.

 

Thanks!