http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/vince-cable-brexit-crisis-worse-than-2008-crash-warns-referendum-liberal-democrat-a7709056.html

I have noticed in recent days that companies are announcing reduced profits e.g HSBC, Sainsburys and i remembered Vince Cables recent warning.

Is the UK heading towards a new economic storm that might be worse than the 07/08 financial crash ? UK Banks have never really recovered and with Brexit likely to cause Banks to lose business to the EU finance centres, how will this affect the UK economy. Many of these Banks transferring work to Brussels, Paris, Frankfurt will still have their headquarters in London, so UK Treasury/taxpayers are still at risk of another bailout. It might be worse because no doubt the UK Bank operations will pay less tax to UK Treasury, but UK Treasury still has the same risk.

Brexit is going to cause huge unintended consequences and as Vince Cable suggests, it could be a major factor in another economic storm that might have been avoided or reduced in effect.

I think that if i were in a position of having significant savings in shares, that i would be looking to invest in gold or other safer options, as if there is another economic storm, many shares are going to tumble in value. I got caught out in the last crash as did many people and if there are warnings you would be wise to take them seriously.

Yes

No not really. I think that everyone is over-stating what the situation really is. Fine the £ has weakened considerably, but I recently read a blog article which explained how blue-chip companies announce they make a loss.

the way I understood it was:

Company A makes £50 million profit in year 1, in year two they only make £40 million (below projection) so it's often announced as a loss.

Anyway, The potential the UK has to bounce back s astounding. I think that we (everyone) got a little too comfortable with the EU's top-ups etc... The farmers for one are panicking as they'll be losing a lot of money which they receive from the EU... The fact really is, pre-EU they just had to work harder but were rewarded better.

What is costing a lot of money are these "referendums" which quite frankly are a total waste of time.. The last time I checked.. A referendum wasn't concluded on the "best of 3 or 4" of them... That generally goes to show that there's absolutely no point voting in them anyway... I've heard of sore-losers, but ones which are that sore that they actually re-stag the match again? *sigh*...

In regards to you saying that you should invest in gold etc... Looking back over the lat few hundred years, gold and other minerals (other than coal) are constantly going up in share.

About the warnings, in the past I've been caught out without access to cash. I lived in the Benelux when the EU switched over from local currencies to the Euro.. It took about 3 weeks for that to sort itself out and it wasn't fun at all. Since then I've made it a point to always have a "get out of jail" somewhere to fall back on if all hell breaks loose.

but really, I wouldn't worry.. The UK is resilient, so I'm sure that things will be worked out one way or the other.

No not really. I think that everyone is over-stating what the situation really is. Fine the £ has weakened considerably, but I recently read a blog article which explained how blue-chip companies announce they make a loss.

 

the way I understood it was:

 

Company A makes £50 million profit in year 1, in year two they only make £40 million (below projection) so it's often announced as a loss.

You understand it wrong.

but really, I wouldn't worry.. The UK is resilient, so I'm sure that things will be worked out one way or the other.

Yes.

Just like if you lose a leg in an accident,

you almost certainly wont die if the right help is available (eg an adequately funded health service),

and you will probably learn to cope with your disability,

Many many brave and resilient people have.

Having a lazy morning before the rain clears for the east coast so

LLoyds

Government and LLoyds headline that the taxpayer made profit on bailout.

OK lets look at their headline claim

Reported £20.3 BILLION directly injected into company in 2008 (more than 8 years ago

Reported amount got back £21.2B (£20.3 + £0.9b)

So on superficial glance that looks like a £0.9B profit

BUT

Even without anything else that gives roughly 4% interest over 8 YEARS or 0.5% interest rate (actually significantly less but we wont compound)

BUT BUT BUT

The loan cost the UK taxpayer 3.6B in interest, and their is no mention of all the additional secondary support like low interest on other loans due to it being a state guaranteed business, and that they pretty much FAILED to meet their commitments in more moral lending to UK businesses.

So simply adding in the UK taxpayers costs in getting them the loan

The bank and its shareholders has GAINED £2.7B + all the interest which they should have paid for the over 8 years loan

--- ALL at UK taxpayers expense

- and that excludes all the secondary cost to the taxpayer and bev=nefits to the banks despite it failing to meet the stated commitments on lending.

Having a lazy morning before the rain clears for the east coast so

 

LLoyds

Government and LLoyds headline that the taxpayer made profit on bailout.

 

OK lets look at their headline claim

 

Reported £20.3 BILLION directly injected into company in 2008 (more than 8 years ago

 

Reported amount got back £21.2B (£20.3 + £0.9b)

 

 

 

So on superficial glance that looks like a £0.9B profit

 

 

BUT

 

Even without anything else that gives roughly 4% interest over 8 YEARS or 0.5% interest rate (actually significantly less but we wont compound)

 

 

BUT BUT BUT

The loan cost the UK taxpayer 3.6B in interest, and their is no mention of all the additional secondary support like low interest on other loans due to it being a state guaranteed business, and that they pretty much FAILED to meet their commitments in more moral lending to UK businesses.

 

So simply adding in the UK taxpayers costs in getting them the loan

 

The bank and its shareholders has GAINED £2.7B + all the interest which they should have paid for the over 8 years loan

--- ALL at UK taxpayers expense

- and that excludes all the secondary cost to the taxpayer and bev=nefits to the banks despite it failing to meet the stated commitments on lending.

In simple terms

They still owe the taxpayer £2.7 Billion pounds JUST to repay the UK taxpayers outlay

.... before we even start with interest on the loan and all the extras.

So with only a 0.5% interest rate for the UK taxpayer (on top of the approx 2% it cost us to get it), they still owe us around £3.5B

at a very low 1.0% return for the UK taxpayer, they still owe us around £4.6 Billion pounds

Even just a barely acceptable 1.5% return rate to the UK taxpayer would leave them still owing the UK taxpayer £5.7 Billion

Now if we started using the MP's or Lloyd's bosses salary increases ......

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/25/lloyds-hands-chief-executive-85m-pay-package

These are all VERY 'conservative' calculations.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/17/lloyds-taxpayer-bailout-banking-group-government-shares

I thought Lloyds were paying dividends to UK treasury on their shares ?

I thought Lloyds were paying dividends to UK treasury on their shares ?

Which are only just starting again as they sell off the shares back to their pals.

http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/l/lloyds-banking-group-plc-ordinary-10p/dividends

A more realistic sum that they STILL owe the UK taxpayer doesn't even START until £5.7B in my opinion, and perhaps should be far more.

Agree it is a loss when everthing is considered.

I still think Frec Goodwin should have his RBS pension taken away and all bonuses recovered that were based on false profits due to excessive risk. In the US, he might be serving time behind bars and trying not to drop the soap in the showers.

Agree it is a loss when everthing is considered.

 

I still think Frec Goodwin should have his RBS pension taken away and all bonuses recovered that were based on false profits due to excessive risk. In the US, he might be serving time behind bars and trying not to drop the soap in the showers.

http://www.cityam.com/264661/time-running-out-royal-bank-scotland-settle-former

I think Fred and RBS are in court starting 22nd May

Fred the Shred should certainly be held to account, I hope he gets what he deserves.

In terms of Lloyds Bank shareholders, I have a very small number of free shares that I got when TSB merged with Lloyds.

Once the then government got Lloyds to take over HBOS, the price plummeted and it hasn't recovered since. Then there were no dividends for many years and a pittance started to reappear a couple of years ago. I still don't know if the government loan made up for the losses that HBOS brought to Lloyds.

When you think about it, the £5.7B that is the LOW-END of what Lloyd's owe the taxpayer is almost as much as the 1p on income tax that the dems are proposing for funding the NHS.

Admitted that the banks is a one off - but its a darn good start, particularly if a more reasonable return for the UK taxpayer for saving the shareholders and managements financial asses is applied,

and there are many other issues and benefits that most of the Banks should be paying UK society for.

and at taxpayers expense for his £100m+ legal fees

Goodwin gets away with it

http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/banking/rbs-shareholders-accept-settlement-offer-averting-goodwin-trial-1.2039495

as Santandar buys collapsing bank for 1E

and The sunny muslim gulf states gang up again on Qatar putting vast pressure on the Qatari banks after Trump visit, and Turkey aligns with Qatar AGAINST Saudi Arabia as Germany moves its troops/advisors from Turkey to Jordan, as Iraqi Kurds announce plans for independence.

Oh My

this polarisation is occurring in almost every country now except France, who have for some reason decided to throw their weight behind someone who didnt have a political party a fortnight ago and now looks like winning more seats than everyone else put together on a centrist ticket. Looks like they want to feel comfortable rather than actually believing the message.

and here its starting in simple words

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jun/17/uk-debt-bubble-queens-speech-consumer-credit-loans-spending

"Unsecured consumer credit – including credit cards, car loans and payday loans – is this year expected to hit levels not seen since the 2008 financial crash."

What had been being touted as 'consumer confidence post Brexit' is now being shown for what it is.

What used to be called getting stuff 'on the never never'

and here its starting in simple words

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/jun/17/uk-debt-bubble-queens-speech-consumer-credit-loans-spending

 

"Unsecured consumer credit – including credit cards, car loans and payday loans – is this year expected to hit levels not seen since the 2008 financial crash."

 

 

What had been being touted as 'consumer confidence post Brexit' is now being shown for what it is.

 

What used to be called getting stuff 'on the never never'

Have started a thread using this link - thanks toby

http://www.consumeractiongroup.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?478623-Debt-bubble-returns-millions-to-days-of-2008-crash&p=5036316#post5036316

Bust it and not Brexit within 2 years i think. The bust might just concentrate minds that the UK should not seek isolation as it is always going to be a small peice in a large economic jigsaw.

If you have a spare 20 minutes it is well worth watching this video, as it explains where capitalism should be heading. At the moment the direction of travel is a greater concentration of wealth and for sustainable working economies for the many, there needs to be a change in direction.

Many good points in there Uncle B, yes the times they are a changing. Someone needs to tell the MP's with their head in the sand.

Going to have a bit of a valid rant

First

Why the f-heck are we selling off our nuclear future and laying massive future debt on the uk's captive energy buying public when our grid are making excessive profit at British consumer expense and giving it to shareholders?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/12/energy-networks-consumers-electricity-gas-national-grid

Citizen’s Advice said the companies that transmit electricity and gas around the UK, including National Grid, were reaping “eye-watering” average profit margins of 19% from their monopolies. That compares with the 4% margin that big six suppliers, such as British Gas, make selling power and gas to householders.

Make them invest their profits in building the power stations and Tidal lagoons

While the Government is not only allowing, but seem to be protecting **** like Philip Green and the Anderson group who urinate all over workers rights, run tax avoidance [problem]s costing the treasury millions if not Billions, and asset strip pension funds they used to be protected.

Anderson Group:

"The arrangements were supposed to work by transferring contracts of low-paid workers from a single large employment agency into a web of tiny companies. So, if an employment agency previously supplied a warehouse with 300 workers, the scheme’s promoters might create 150 new companies, each employing two workers.

Many of those mini companies linked to Anderson were put into voluntary liquidation at the end of 2016 – a move that post-dated HMRC’s fraud and investigation service asking the company for details about the large numbers of VAT registration applications made on behalf of its clients."

and we should all know about (sir) Philip Green and Mike Ashley

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/30/iain-wright-the-mp-bringing-mike-ashley-and-sir-philip-green-to-book

Now according to the Guardian, it believes these sort of excesses were a trigger for a lot of people to vote Brexit!!!!

WHAT!!

Dont know if thats true, but why the heck would the abuses of British 'captains of industry', in Britain, under the protecting eye of Her Majesties government Ministers and Customs and Excise,

.. while Her Majesties Government does all in its power to resist and prevent EU rules and regulations intended to prevent these excesses and abuses of position

.. cause people to vote for Brexit and put themselves more in even more uncontrolled hands of these abusers of position, authority and trust?

I really do despair over the UK.

As industries stop investing

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-idUKKBN19U10T

Big UK firms curtail investment plans, consumer slowdown deepens

Toby

Which might explain why Labour are currently leading in the polls. They did not win the election, but increase vote share and number of MP's.

I am pro markets and capitalism, but with proper regulation and the state playing a full part where it is sensible to do so. Brexit is actually part of putting Britain up for sale to the highest bidder. The EU needs reform, but it serves as a way of regulating markets and after Brexit a UK Government might struggle to regulate against powerfull global companies.

Toby

Which might explain why Labour are currently leading in the polls. They did not win the election, but increase vote share and number of MP's.

The only sane reason for that is May letting her social asset stripping policies out.

Corbyn is at least as Hard Brexit as May,

Is at least as untrustworthy

and has absolutely NO stated plan for dealing with Brexit, just like May

In fact, in reality the only differences between May and Corbyn seems to be that May promotes the interests of Businesses (whatever lies she might spin about for all), and Corbyn will promote the interests of refugees.

Neither has the interests of the British public at large in their hearts.

Neither has true democratic process in their hearts

Neither has honesty as their basis

QUOTE=unclebulgaria67;5042774]

I am pro markets and capitalism, but with proper regulation and the state playing a full part where it is sensible to do so. Brexit is actually part of putting Britain up for sale to the highest bidder. The EU needs reform, but it serves as a way of regulating markets and after Brexit a UK Government might struggle to regulate against powerfull global companies.

and there's the other crunch.

Even if we do repeal the repeal and stay in the EU, that is not all honey and Roses either.

... But like Corbyn in Comparison to May in the recent election,

The EU is the least bad option available to us, and if we become a real part of it, we Brits still have it in us to change the world.

They've had 40 odd years to change the world I think people got a bit tired.

They've had 40 odd years to change the world I think people got a bit tired.

But Europe has done really well over the 40 years.

Just think of the state it was in before say 1980. The Berlin wall came down in 1989, reunification of Germany, massive changes to countries that were previously under control of Soviet Union. Look at Poland, Slovakia, Romania, etc and look at how they have progressed.

The EU is still one of the best consumer markets in the world and inspires most of the world in many regards e.g luxury cars, fashion, high tech IT and engineering.

I think people have been brainwashed by newspapers to think the EU is mostly negative, when actually when you look at everything, there is a really positive story to tell.

People voted Brexit mainly due to immigration, but that has been a net gain economically for the UK.

Mr C tried negotiations on important issues and was not successful. How long do you go on being ignored whilst you're sending money back into the EU. It's funny how we can afford sending money when we have a 1.7 trill deficit. Funny type of economics.