I know he doesn't like Europe much, it's a shame that the official opposition are so close to the government's position.

So we still don't know when there will be a vote, they're just saying that it'll be before 21st January. MPs aren't inclined to take the assurances very seriously from what I've read.

Great quote from John Bercow, who seems pretty annoyed about how parliament has been treated.

Philip Hammond to John McDonnell 'Vote for the Brexit deal on the table at the moment.'

Speaker Bercow interrupts 'It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote.'

Great quote from John Bercow, who seems pretty annoyed about how parliament has been treated.

 

Philip Hammond to John McDonnell 'Vote for the Brexit deal on the table at the moment.'

 

Speaker Bercow interrupts 'It's quite difficult to vote for something if there isn't a vote.'

LOL too true

and of course corbyns cake and eat it immediate response to May which May quickly trounced him on.

and Corbyn goes on today about Mays contradictions, wish lists and blind brexit

... Just like his (as trounced on).

What do you think May's current strategy is, TJ? To hang it out as long as possible for the vote and then say it's my deal or chaos and ignore the possibility of a people's vote?

What do you think May's current strategy is, TJ? To hang it out as long as possible for the vote and then say it's my deal or chaos and ignore the possibility of a people's vote?

- Yes

I cant see any other reasoning.

Reports are that May only postponed the debate at the last minute at the insistence of the chief whip.

That doesn't make sense unless May insanely thought (which is a distinct possibility) that her bill had ANY chance of passing

I genuinely think that it was the level of support for Ben's amendment (no deal not an option) that caused the postponement.

- that would have completely blown the Tory party apart, let alone DUP 'support'

despite making Mays deal, renegotiation (which the EU says isnt an option) or referendum the only options.

As it stands, any vote of no confidence in the government will almost certainly fail and would further limit the choices. Corbyn seems right not to play that card at least yet, whatever his reasons.

... and of course if there was little else fogging the comparison, our existing deal VS Mays deal looks like the 'make up you own explicative metaphor' that it truly is.

If there had been anything like a labour party at the moment, with Corbyn where he at best belongs - on the back benches - they would be in power twice over now.

Even Tory front benchers and a potential next Tory leader are now openly saying that Brexit cake and eat it was a lie - despite then saying a fresh referendum should not be an option

- a democratic oxymoron in a process entirely based on Oxymorons

.. afresh referendum wont heal the country and may worsen the split - WHAT!!!

WELL - cant see anything making the country or government any more split and it may be the ONLY option which could start the healing process for most.

BUT - Even if there is a fresh referendum, the Tories and Corbyn will undoubtedly try to manage one without remain in the choices - and the utter uproar that would cause is why they are dragging their feet.

The simple fact is that whoever actually declares their stance rather than fogging it - will be a target, but time is running out - 'we ran out of time' being their get out.

reports starting that 48 letters have been received.

https://www.thisisinsider.com/no-confidence-letters-theresa-may-submitted-sources-2018-12

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/threshold-reached-to-trigger-no-confidence-vote-in-theresa-may-reports-1.3728197

Been on feeds for over an hour

The trouble is, if May loses the vote, who do you get instead?

The trouble is, if May loses the vote, who do you get instead?

48+ letters confirmed.

I think May may still win, simply because of the complete lack of quality of the alternatives.

Before the contempt and last minute vote cancellation, I was sure she would win despite everything else (and there's a lot else).

I do thinks its a definitive statement on the utter disfunctionality of the tory party and british politics generally that The Brexit cake and eat it Liars are considered front runners.

.. That Corbyn has even a cat in hells chance of being PM is another symptom of the Tories total disfunctionality.

(given his performance - there should be no doubts whatsoever now of his complete unsuitability - there was at least some doubt at the start of his (complete lack of coherent and inspiring) leadership)

and the list of front runners would seem to make a labour win even more likely (certain but for Corbyn) - which in turn seems makes a united Ireland in the EU more likely, with that potential domino effect. The Tories would fight it tooth and nail.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/19/the-race-to-replace-theresa-may-the-likely-candidates

You have to feel sorry for Europe. Even if she wins the VONC, there's still the problem of when parliament gets to know what the revised deal is, if there is one. Never mind when they're actually allowed to vote on it.

From the Guardian, interesting snippets from TM's speech on the VONC.

'She says having a new leader now would put “our country’s future at risk”.

She says a new leader would not have time time reopen the negotiations, and so parliament would be able to take over the process.

And she says that a new leader would have to delay or revoke article 50.'

You have to feel sorry for Europe. Even if she wins the VONC, there's still the problem of when parliament gets to know what the revised deal is, if there is one. Never mind when they're actually allowed to vote on it.

I think the EU are fed up with it anyway.

Unless there is some CONCRETE reason to do differently (and the UK crashing out isnt that) they will stand firm.

and I for one am utterly sick to death of anyone saying:

We must 'honour' the peoples choice, and understanding that MANY peoples decisions were based on dishonorable and disgracefully deceitful lies, you can be sure we will do our utmost to ensure there is NO opportunity for the people to correct those deceit driven choices .

So May has won the confidence vote, but the ERG are already saying they want to table a different sort of no confidence vote with some of the opposition parties...

They worked out keeping Mrs M was the right thing to do then.

Just been watching the Apprentice, very similar circumstances.

Lord Sugar and Mrs M together negotiating awesome:-D

So May has won the confidence vote, but the ERG are already saying they want to table a different sort of no confidence vote with some of the opposition parties...

Although May is safe from Tory votes of no confidence in her for a year, she and the Tory PARTY are not immune from votes of no confidence from the house.

ERG must be prepared to bring the Tory party down and rely on Corbyn for their hard Brexit

(they must be sure that Corbyns plans other than Hard Brexit are impossible or will just be a temporary irritation at most - I tend to agree)

They can do that by either refusing to support the government in a 'supply bill' (in effect what May needed the DUP for)

or simply vote with others (snp, Labour greens, etc) in a vote of no confidence in the government.

There may be some obscure form of censure motion they can use - sounds very smug - although I thought the recent changes squashed those?

We will see

Be interesting if a major faction in the Tory Party acts to intentionally bring down - The Tory Party.I suppose they think if its good enough for the DUP to threaten/do it, its good enough for us to do it.

Smug and the ERG seem to think their plans for a hard Brexit would be safer in Corbyns hands ... and again I agree

Although a general election is by no means a given result in any way.

Even if labour win, with Corbyn deselecting everyone but his yes jezzer right away jezzer choices, its likely only the hard Brexit will be certain to get through ...

... which is probably what smugs crew are relying on.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse ...

I'm sure Mrs M has said in the past she would not stand in the next Gen Elec. Don't know why they're making such a noise about Mrs M not standing. I bet she can't wait to get away from the nasty colleagues.

I'm sure Mrs M has said in the past she would not stand in the next Gen Elec. Don't know why they're making such a noise about Mrs M not standing. I bet she can't wait to get away from the nasty colleagues.

I have no idea whats going on in her mind other than her clear intent to reduce any choices available.

I think the ERG believe that for a general election

* They will have a confirmed hard Brexiter leading the Tory Party replacing May

* Corbyn as a hard brexiter leading a carefully 'selected' and well whipped Labour party

Hard brexit must seem almost a certainty to them ..

Putin must be very pleased.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse ...

I keep thinking that and then it does get worse. I can't believe what I'm reading in the media these days, it's like watching a slow motion train crash.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse ...

 

I keep thinking that and then it does get worse. I can't believe what I'm reading in the media these days, it's like watching a slow motion train crash.

Article 50 will be extended, because UK Parliament does not accept Mays deal or a no deal. A simple act of Parliament would be passed to change the date of the EU withdrawal bill from 29 March 2019 to a date to be decided.

At some point referendum number 2 will take place, as politicians reach a stalemate.

Do you think Europe will accept inability to reach a consensus as a reason to extend, UB?

I think a second referendum is the way to go, but neither May nor Corbyn seem to be in favour of that.

Do you think Europe will accept inability to reach a consensus as a reason to extend, UB?

 

I think a second referendum is the way to go, but neither May nor Corbyn seem to be in favour of that.

I dont believe that the EU will consider it reason,

Especially when you consider that the ERG/hard brexiters next move will likely be to fillibuster any legislation that makes any moves away from hard brexit possible (talk it to death - runs out of time until default fall out hard brexit in 3 months), of form of which is effectively what May has been doing to prevent a peoples vote.

Corbyn would undoubtedly 'support' that (especially if he can do it passively (aka sit on his hands and do nowt but quietly threaten his own MPs)) as it will achieve his goals and he can say 'i didn't do it' - which would of course in reality and all but weasel words - be a lie.

It's unreal, isn't it? They'd rather ruin the country with a hard Brexit than back down.

They worked out keeping Mrs M was the right thing to do then.

 

Just been watching the Apprentice, very similar circumstances.

 

Lord Sugar and Mrs M together negotiating awesome:-D

Except that May would be so hamstrung by her backers conflicting requirements, she would undoubtedly hold out for taking on the cameraman who is due to retire next week as her apprentice..

... and accept no one else.

I dont think she would find sugars response sweet at all.

BUT yes, I do think May is probably the least worst of the available options - at the moment.

It's unreal, isn't it? They'd rather ruin the country with a hard Brexit than back down.

I think its bringing to the fore just how dysfunctional our Parliament is, despite it also possibly being one of the least worst options.

I think I got voting for the status quo of first past the post very wrong ...

I thought at the time that the last thing we needed was a change tying up parliament for years which might not bring significant improvements

I was the opposite of right on that occasion - it turns out it was quite possibly everything we needed ...

Article 50 will be extended, because UK Parliament does not accept Mays deal or a no deal. A simple act of Parliament would be passed to change the date of the EU withdrawal bill from 29 March 2019 to a date to be decided.

 

At some point referendum number 2 will take place, as politicians reach a stalemate.

A change of date will require the agreement of the EU, and that seems unlikely without a change of government or a fresh referendum

and How would a change of government actually change anything?

The apparent ERG plans to fillibuster anything that might prevent us falling off the cliff into hard brexit in 3 months, along with the totally split government, parties, and country make either a difficult process to get through.

.. let alone them voting against their own party in a no confidence vote as a last resort .. which Corbyn would support as it would mean the failure of hard brexit was threatened

Party splits at this time are like the May no confidence vote - just damaging distractions, and would take MAJOR splits from both sides to do anything possible - say a dozen cabinet shadow cabinet (class) Mp's plus a hundred or so other MP's

Trouble is that only the ERG seem to approach that level of organisation and numbers.

If Labour splits - Corbyn will press to have them deselected - although he probably will certainly work hard too anyway before the next GE, and what could they do against Corbyns remaining MP's and the ERG?

Its a mess.

There is little democracy left in our entirely dysfunctional parliament, and far too few real democratic politicians.

What to do?