missile strike at damascus

apparently the (israeli apparently) '..missiles had hit an ammunition depot in a closed military area that was used by Iran-backed militias operating alongside the Syrian army, led by Hezbollah...' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39728682

then there is, apparently, turkey targeting US backed ypg. and also in iraq.

then there is ruski, the saudis, etc

what a 'quagmire' (as the journo said)

missile strike at damascus

apparently the (israeli apparently) '..missiles had hit an ammunition depot in a closed military area that was used by Iran-backed militias operating alongside the Syrian army, led by Hezbollah...' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-39728682

then there is, apparently, turkey targeting US backed ypg. and also in iraq.

then there is ruski, the saudis, etc

what a 'quagmire' (as the journo said)

I'm genuinely surprised that the fighting hasn't already escalated.

I think that the fear that the Israeli's will use nukes as a last resort if they feel threatened. and would be quite happy to conventional bomb Syria or the Russians, probably even the Turks let alone Iranian and Hezbollah positions,

and that nobody really knows how to handle that

or what Trump might yeee haaawww do is a large factor. Trump probably thinks that a war is what he needs right now.

The Israeli's are dangerous enough without a childish madman like Trump, although I can understand where they are coming from. Israel is a small plot that is very vulnerable to even very limited 'low tech' nuke, chemical or biological attack.

Some might be astonished the Russians haven't activated the air defense missile systems and started shooting planes down - after warning everyone that they would BUT ..

The Israeli jets apparently fired their missiles from inside Israeli occupied territory.

Its all slipping further and further out of control from what I see.

Israel might seem crazy, as if war does escalate, they are very probably a priority first target for MANY of the parties involved, and that might be one of the few things that would unite ALL the others resulting in a truce while they unite to wipe out Israel, BUT high tech arms from Iran in Hezbollah hands will always be an immediate issue for Israel.

Put the paper up at the windows and make sure theres room under the kitchen table folks (and get your yoga practice up to date) ...

The 19:39 express is leaving the station.

I'm genuinely surprised that the fighting hasn't already escalated.

quite.

it boggles as to how many different countries/factions are involved, in one way or another. but, then again, maybe not so unsurprising given the history.

syria seems to be the current 'free for all'. what a shame for the genuine citizens. and, no country involved can really complain re any genuine immigration from there.

US says 350 civilians killed in their strikes in syria/iraq

others say around 3,000 by coalition forces

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/30/pentagon-352-civilians-killed-strikes-isis-iraq-syria

"Staggering" civilian deaths from U.S.-led air strikes in Raqqa - U.N.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-syria-warcrimes-idUKKBN19511V

Human Rights Watch expressed concern in a statement about the use of incendiary white phosphorous weapons by the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, saying it endangered civilians when used in populated areas.

Americans shoot down a syrian air force (Russian built) jet that was 'bombing to close' to some group the Americans were supporting, while Iran performs missile strike into Syria against ' terrorist group involved in attacks in Iran

Add to this Turkey supporting Qatar against the Saudi coalition, The middle east really is only a hairs breadth away from expanding into a major conflict dragging the UK into an action which would make the Iraq and Syria destabilization actions look minor

and generate

further 10's of millions of refugees

and 100's of thousands of deaths and maimings

Its already been leaked that May intended air strikes in Syria if she won an increased majority, and the Torys may well believe they need a war to save their asses.

Syria Latest: US and allies launch strikes on Syria chemical weapons sites

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43762251

https://news.sky.com/story/us-uk-launch-military-strikes-on-syria-11329796

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-strike-launched-chemical-attack-live-updates-live-stream-today-2018-04-13/

Still waiting for reports of clouds of chlorine gas and other chemical fallout from these strikes on 'major chemical weapon production and storage areas' - to prove this isnt just May and Trump needing strikes to 'improve' their ratings and to protect petro industry profits

- rather than to prevent 'dozens' of chemical warfare fatalities in a war where 'conventional' weapons have killed at least 350,000 - 500,000 people and displaced millions.

Lets never forget that ISIS became a Caliphate covering a massive area across the middle east beheading, murdering, raping and enslaving thousands upon thousands under NATO and Saudi support of the 'FSA' and that Turkey is still actively empowering and supporting Nusra radicals in Syria.

If Assad falls, how long does anyone think it will be before ISIS under whatever name is in power AGAIN - and I dont think it will be long before those chemical weapons, which are clearly being used to promote ISIS and radical agendas, are used directly against US.

Still waiting for reports of clouds of chlorine gas and other chemical fallout from these strikes on 'major chemical weapon production and storage areas'

Given that the strike sites are off limits to the Western media and that the Syrians themselves are hardly likely to broadcast the existence of chemical weapons on their own turf, you might be waiting a while.

It's very sad to keep hearing about civilians being hurt by their own government or others.

And I worry about the conflict widening or attacks on the UK or France becoming more widespread.

Given that the strike sites are off limits to the Western media and that the Syrians themselves are hardly likely to broadcast the existence of chemical weapons on their own turf, you might be waiting a while.

Why? We hear straight away about a metal cylinder supposedly filled with stuff thats in every swimming pool and toilet in the UK - across every news service in the world.

NATO spy services have stated they are watching these sites very closely.

Given that:

Chlorine can be easily made by any 16 year old chemistry student

A metal cylinder to store it in can be made by any back street car repair welder. (look at the cylinder on a Syrian bed picture)

A simple remote explosive device can be made by any terrorist

These canisters can be left anywhere and triggered either randomly or during any attack

Answer these questions:

What practical benefit whatsoever does ASSAD get from gassing a handful of citizens in a war thats killed hundreds of thousands?

Who BENEFITS from a chlorine gas attack in Syria however small (horrible though any is)?

(I think anyone with any understanding whatsoever would see Assad is at the end of that benefits queue)

And the crucial question:

IF it is ISIS radicals gassing people from simple cheap chlorine canisters left here there and everywhere which can be exploded from a simple remote device,

Is any resulting attack on Assad, however ineffective, going to result in more or less gas attacks ?

 

Leaving aside the fact of the creation and rapid expansion of the ISIS caliphate under the air umbrella of the western coalition

 

Still waiting for you to answer these simple yet crucial questions:

 

* What practical benefit whatsoever does ASSAD get from chlorine gassing a handful of citizens (whether or not they are radicals/terrorists) in a war that's killed hundreds of thousands?

 

* Who BENEFITS vastly from a chlorine gas attack in Syria however small (horrible though any is)?

 

 

 

* And the crucial question:

IF it is ISIS radicals gassing people from simple cheap chlorine canisters left here and there which can be exploded from a simple remote device

- resulting in the UK and USA acting again (intended or not) as the ISIS Air Force

 

Is any resulting attack on Assad by the west, however ineffective, going to result in less or MORE chlorine gas attacks ?

 

 

 

the gassing has had the desired effect that conventional bombs dont, it gets to people hiding in basements and is also psychological. One of the problems with toby's theory is how do the ISIS bods get into the beseiged area with their raw chemicals and welding kits form their area hundreds of miles away that is beseiged by both Assad's coalition and the wests Kurdish ones?

This is not a single war, it is about a dozen different ones being fought in a counrty that has no real government despite the capital being relatively normal so to the poeple that are in the inner sanctum all is going well so what would be a good propaganda coup for one group is actually divorced from what is on the ground. Neither Syria nor russia have denied that chemical weapons facilities were hit and as they shouldnt exist in the first place Assad cant actually claimany conspiracy or moral high ground. he was a good customer of Saddam back in the early days of Iraq's output of nerve agents as well.

It is what goes unreported at the time that tells the tale, there have been a dozen or so other gas attacks in the previous month and all had common features that point towards Assad being the guilty party. Our secret services like to keep all their intel secret from us but the rest of the world seems to know what is going on so why dont they publish a daily bombing list fo what planes took off from waht airfield, where they flew to and waht they dropped bombs on and how many killed. The pilots names should be published on facebook and pictures of their families as well. That would make the military heirarchy in Syria less complaint to the wishes of the gutless bloodthirsty lot at the top. Most of the Syrian refugees coming to europe are men of military conscription age getting the hell out of it to avoid being cannon fodder rather than people from the beseiged areas. cant blame them but it means that there will be no-one there to create and build the peace once everyone else has trampled all over the place

One of the problems with toby's theory is how do the ISIS bods get into the beseiged area with their raw chemicals and welding kits form their area hundreds of miles away that is beseiged by both Assad's coalition and the wests Kurdish ones?

They get a handful of large fire extinguisher type cylinders in the same way they keep getting the bullets and rpgs in. If they could get more in - they undoubtedly would and the western news services would be saying Assad did it.. Even anti-Assad Aljazeera raises questions.

The real civilians may be starving, but the weapons supplies seem endless.

As you say - its a complex situation with people on all sides doing all sorts, with 'seiges' that are more like sieves for some and 'traitors' and spies and false flag operations on all sides.

.. But using chemical weapons harms Assads cause (likely retaliation) in a way which conventional bombing does not - when he has effectively already won that battle.

... and where are the clouds of gas from the destroyed 'stockpiles'?

Never forget what has happened (expanding ISIS caliphate, beheadings, rape ... the legacy of the west, Turkey and the Sauds arming of radicals for regime change) and what will happen again if Assad falls.

Assads religiously tolerant, developing nation as was, for all its faults, must seem like paradise lost compared to now for most of its citizens and many citizens of other nations.

and we still have the worst of the Turk-Kurd conflict to see yet as Turkey falls into blatant dictatorship and the conflict moves from even pretending to be proxie to Turkeys direct involvement and land grab to suppress the Syrian kurds who were a major part in defeating ISIS.

Good God. I am not gonna be able to sleep anymore...

They get a handful of large fire extinguisher type cylinders in the same way they keep getting the bullets and rpgs in. If they could get more in - they undoubtedly would and the western news services would be saying Assad did it.. Even anti-Assad Aljazeera raises questions.

 

The real civilians may be starving, but the weapons supplies seem endless.

 

As you say - its a complex situation with people on all sides doing all sorts, with 'seiges' that are more like sieves for some and 'traitors' and spies and false flag operations on all sides.

.. But using chemical weapons harms Assads cause (likely retaliation) in a way which conventional bombing does not - when he has effectively already won that battle.

 

... and where are the clouds of gas from the destroyed 'stockpiles'?

 

 

Never forget what has happened (expanding ISIS caliphate, beheadings, rape ... the legacy of the west, Turkey and the Sauds arming of radicals for regime change) and what will happen again if Assad falls.

 

 

Assads religiously tolerant, developing nation as was, for all its faults, must seem like paradise lost compared to now for most of its citizens and many citizens of other nations.

 

and we still have the worst of the Turk-Kurd conflict to see yet as Turkey falls into blatant dictatorship and the conflict moves from even pretending to be proxie to Turkeys direct involvement and land grab to suppress the Syrian kurds who were a major part in defeating ISIS.

From NYT Nov 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/world/middleeast/isis-chemical-weapons-syria-iraq-mosul.html

Assessment by the IHS Conflict Monitor, a London-based intelligence collection and analysis service says ISIS Used Chemical Arms at Least 52 Times in Syria and Iraq (as of Nov 2016)

The IHS conclusions, which are based on local news reports, social media and Islamic State propaganda, mark the broadest compilation of chemical attacks in the conflict.

"chlorine and blister agents" "sulfur mustard""

"chemical attacks — typically rockets, mortar shells or artillery shells filled with chemical agents. The effects of these chemical munitions thus far have been limited to the immediate area where they land"

"Islamic State had access to, and was experimenting with, different types of rockets and shells configured to carry chemical warfare agents or toxic industrial chemicals."

"most of the equipment and experts were probably evacuated to Syria in the weeks and months leading up to the Mosul offensive"

"Chlorine is commercially available as an industrial chemical and has been used occasionally by bomb makers from Sunni militant groups in Iraq for about a decade."

and CNN 2017

https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/17/politics/isis-chemical-weapons/index.html

ISIS creating chemical weapons cell

"US intelligence believes ISIS is bringing together all of its experts on chemical weapons from Iraq and Syria into a new "chemical weapons cell," according to a US official."

Independant 2018

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/isis-iraq-chemical-weapons-nazi-experiments-human-guinea-pigs-a7747156.html

Isis tests chemical weapons on 'human guinea pigs'

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/03/23/isis_chemical_weapons_expert_from_france_as_terrorist_113240.html

U.S. Designates ISIS Chemical Weapons Expert From France As Terrorist

"Dorrian explained that the agent is “dispersed into a very small area whenever these munitions go off” and they “are not especially effective about anything except creating a public narrative.” While they are “not as effective even as explosive rounds…they do get some attention.”"

https://ctc.usma.edu/the-evolution-of-the-islamic-states-chemical-weapons-efforts/

Chemical agent mortar attacks against Kurds

"In late July 2015, the Islamic State fired several mortar bombs at Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions near the city of Hasakah in northeastern Syria. A statement released by the YPG after the attack described how the explosions had released “a yellow gas with a strong smell of onions,” "

https://usa.spectator.co.uk/2018/04/why-does-nobody-seem-to-care-that-isis-has-used-chemical-weapons/

Why does nobody seem to care that Isis has used chemical weapons?

"This was hardly the first acknowledgment that Isis has used chemical weapons in Iraq and Syria. But the contrast between the slight notice paid to the Asperman news and the great excitement that characterizes so much other coverage of chemical weapons points to the role that politics plays in shaping public perceptions."

I guess what this whole war in Syria demonstrates is that for 1000 years now, nothing in the world has changed. White people do not care about people of colour or Arabs. Not in Europe, or anywhere else in the world.

They get a handful of large fire extinguisher type cylinders in the same way they keep getting the bullets and rpgs in. If they could get more in - they undoubtedly would and the western news services would be saying Assad did it.. Even anti-Assad Aljazeera raises questions.

 

The real civilians may be starving, but the weapons supplies seem endless.

 

As you say - its a complex situation with people on all sides doing all sorts, with 'seiges' that are more like sieves for some and 'traitors' and spies and false flag operations on all sides.

.. But using chemical weapons harms Assads cause (likely retaliation) in a way which conventional bombing does not - when he has effectively already won that battle.

 

... and where are the clouds of gas from the destroyed 'stockpiles'?

 

 

Never forget what has happened (expanding ISIS caliphate, beheadings, rape ... the legacy of the west, Turkey and the Sauds arming of radicals for regime change) and what will happen again if Assad falls.

 

 

Assads religiously tolerant, developing nation as was, for all its faults, must seem like paradise lost compared to now for most of its citizens and many citizens of other nations.

 

and we still have the worst of the Turk-Kurd conflict to see yet as Turkey falls into blatant dictatorship and the conflict moves from even pretending to be proxie to Turkeys direct involvement and land grab to suppress the Syrian kurds who were a major part in defeating ISIS.

sorry but ISIS dont have a foothold in that area, they are the enemy as much as Assad is. You are confusing the different mini wars and bundling them together.

As for toxic gas clouds, the facities destroyed were, like many of his airfields emptied of anything valuable beofrehand.

Asaaad moved his planes to iraq and Iran to keep them intact, same as Saddam repainted his and sent them to Iran, his sworn enemy, who promptly repainted tham and kept them. To make a poison gas you normally mis to innocuous chemical together and end up with what you want and then distil that you get a pure version. Bleach and bath salts wont form a poison cloud when bombed but will when you chuck bath salts in bleach. Others degrade very rapidly or do so when heat is applied. The explosive S4N4 is very unstable and when you heat it just turns back to nitrogen gas ans sulphur without a squeak. when cold, just rub it with heavy finger pressure and you no longer have fingers.

All of the regimes in the middle east have no legitimacy, Jordan stole half of Palestine during their failed attempt to invade Israel in 1948 and no one says a word but the world makes a lot of noise about the pockets left over for decades. Iran had a massive insurgency a few years ago and it never got reported on the news anywhere as they clamed down on its reporting. Road block on every road into tehran and other cities, car bombings at checkpoints then countered by having 2 checkpoints on the same road to limit casualties and damage, mass arrests and executions of the minorities the insurgents came from but also ungovernable areas on their borders.

No country in the region has borders that are historically meaningful. russia lost all of its client states in Africa years ago and China now owns that continent hence their interest in keeping Assad in Powr as their customer Saddam humiliated them by losing the gulf war so quickly and completely their weapons and technology were just walked all over and they want to show the folks at home that the west have it in for them rather than their economic stagnation and poverty being anything to do with the corruption of the ladership. Putin has gained about 20 billion quid in payments from the oligarchs but he doesnt care about the money, it is power and influence he craves so not a lot the wast can do directly

sorry but ISIS dont have a foothold in that area, they are the enemy as much as Assad is. You are confusing the different mini wars and bundling them together.

Nope, just simplifying the terms.

Islamic radicals would have been more accurate, but do you include Israeli, French, American and British spooks among those? Turkey?

eg Nusra are Islamic radicals but are they ISIS or Turks?

FSA or 100 other constantly changing groups with changing alliances and goals.

Just shows that the ONLY two half way legitimate forces that the west COULD work with there is Assad and the Kurds.

- despite the west and their allies trying to overthrow Assad at any cost.

... The western powers are going to have to address Turkey eventually.

One thing we agree on, that all the parties hands are steeped in blood and us in the west, although trying to do the right thing have history there and shafted the potential legitimate leaders back after WW!, mainly because France felt sorry for itself and we felt sorry for France.

We are nice to Turkey because they are in NATO (well, sort of) and millions of Turks live in Germany so the Germans suck up to them and give then 12 points in Europvision when their singer is rubbish but during the Cyprus invasion Turkish naval vessels fired on British warships and had their ships blown to pieces for the inconvenience. It wasnt an accident and as greece wasnt part of NATO we werent going to get involved other then to defend the airfields in the south of the island, the rest was down to the UN. Erdogan has no interest in democracy so it is his politics that are the problem rathe rthen the Turkish population but again, they have insurgents of all sorts bombing them and some of those were originally sponsored by the Turks themselves to cause mischief elsewhwere.

During the Gulf war Jordanian pilots flew with the alliance forces against Iraq but their political leaders were supplying Saddam with munitions becasue all their oil came from there and they didnt want the taps turned off.

As Trump leaves the USA Kurd (only) allies in the lurch (take note Brexiters) ..

leaving the Kurds with little choice but turn to Assad/Putin in the face of a Turkish invasion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/28/syrian-kurdish-militia-manbij-turkey

Lining up the Kurds/Syrians/Russia/Iran (and possibly Iraq) against NATO Turkey.

Baring in mind that Trump is anti NATO, and its unlikely that other NATO countries will support a Turkish invasion ...

Russia/Syrian regime + Kurdistan (plus allies) Vs NATO Turkey comes a big step closer.

Perhaps the world is about to see the first use of Russia's new hyper sonic missiles against an enemy ...

Syria wont move against Turkey becuase it is too weak but they will certainly wave a few flags is others do. Turkey is predominantly Sunni so war with Iran more likely than war with Syria but there again Syria has relied heavily on Iranian support to beat ISIS (sunni). Will Syria risk all out war over Turkey's incursions to get at the Kurds? Not while NATO maintains a presence and more importantly the ability to influence the other neighbours.

Israel continues to hit Iranian positions and supplies in Syria and although that makes the Turks happy in one respect there is a growing islamist backlash against the continued presence of US/NATO systems in Turkey that they see as defending Israel againt the Iranians. It really isnt as simple as my enemy's enemy is my friend.

Now how about another long running sore- Cyprus. If it does all kick off in Turkey will the Greeks/Cypriots try and seize their chance?

Our best friends forever, the Kuwaitis and Saudis will also be forced to take sides and that will drag the UAE into the conflict as well because of their funding for just about every crackpot sect or group to bribe them to keep away from their doors will no longer be enough to maintain their security. They certainly wont be on the side of Iran but wont want to support Turkey either

Pakistans govt has always been pro west but its populace dont go along with that but they hate India enough to put up with it but they will lose a lot of foreign income if the gulf suddenly becomes off limits for their workers so they might take a more vociferous stance.

Ultimately Turkey might have to rely on Israel to help them and that will bring the US back so we end up where we started but with half of all the big buildings in the middle east now flattened and the price of everything in the world doubled.

Traditional wars are won by those who can best afford to fight, total war is won by those who can accpet the greatest losses. Vietnam was the nearest thing to total war. If the population of the south there knew how bad things would be compared to under their previous regime they would have fought it out. Perhaps the memory of loss will affect those involved and limit what Russia and Iran will want to try. Al Jazeera should look out old footage from Chechnya etc and show it repeatedly on their telly just to remind their viewers that their stock can go down as well as up and you might not get back what you invested.

Syria wont move against Turkey becuase it is too weak

 

Will Syria risk all out war over Turkey's incursions to get at the Kurds? Not while NATO maintains a presence and more importantly the ability to influence the other neighbours.

Quite true, but I was referring to the Russians hitting any Turkish forces that are in(vading) Syria.

A couple of hypersonic missiles hitting a Turkish force in Syria would be a real showcase.

Also consider re Cyprus that Greece is a NATO member from the same year as Turkey.

Israel is of course the lump in the punchbowl, and what must they be making of Trump?

Like the USA (even at their best) they will do whatever is in their interests, and Hezbollah/Iran are their mortal enemies - as is the BFF Saud/Kuwait/UAE group you mention. Turkey is as well albeit more 'quietly'.

BIG BUT ... the other Arab nations are re-opening relations with Assad since the US got its nose rubbed in it and Trump announced withdrawal (and presumably stopped pressuring them).

The other Arab states will want a resurgent Syria with them. Turkey is rightly trusted by no-one.

Look what they have been doing with the Khashoggi case to get pressure off their abuses by pointing a finger at the saudis and keeping it in the news. The Sauds WILL pay them back for that.

A more subdued Syria under Assad with their focus toward Turkey might be in Israels best interests, particularly if the Kurds get more of a say in the new Syria. House of cards as that might be.

... As might be a similarly broken up Turkey.

Israel has and would hit Syrian forces and Hezbollah/Iranian, and for those that remember Israel attacking a US ship - they might Russia

... but for those sub launched cruise missiles and the newly showcased hypersonic missiles which are almost certainly intended to make them and Turkey think twice about whats in their best interests.

Russia could now Erase Israel from the map despite any iron dome - and crucially without nukes.

They pretty much certainly wont unless really backed into a corner - but could. (one of a number of key points)

Iraq might also join in against Turkey. Turkey has more enemies than Syria had, and should now realise that being a relatively big kid in the local schoolyard can mean sweet miss adams when you are alone and move up to big school.

Turkey would do no better than Syria has, quite possibly worse.

Russia is no enemy of Israel, most of the crooked oligarchs are of jewish origin and Russia also has to market its diamonds and buy its silicon chips somewhere and although just about all of the Arab states would love to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth none of them want to be involved in actually doing it. A lot of the intel about their more immediate neighbours intentions comes from Israels spy network.

In return, there is no desire to get involved intheir neighbours battles from jerusalem, they are quite content to let them rip each other apart and speak softly to all of them. Look what happened when Iraq fired a load of scud missiles at them during the gulf war. It actually made it easier to get promises out of Jordan, Egypt Lebanon and the gulf states when it looked like WW3 was on the cards.

What do they think of Trump? probably very little and it wouldnt have mattered until he appointed a catholic with a dodgy part to the supreme court. That upset the true balance of power in the US, what to's and fro's in congress doesnt really matter in the long term.

the real concern should be what would Turkey do if either Erdogan moves even further away from democracy or what if there is another coup attempt becuse his foreign policy gets even more combative? There are plenty of religious nutters there who wouldnt baulk at starting a fight with anyone to push their country away from a democratic model to get a religious state even if it doesnt have electricity and water.

Turkey could have stopped Saddam in his tracks if they had wanted to without a shot being fired but that wouild ahve breached on of the other unwritten rules of diplomacy. They could have just dammed the Euphrates and a couple of other rivers. Jordan is at the mercy of a single river and Israel has the juxury of salt water purification but there are enormous population pressures in the whole area. Just look at Yemen, it was a sh*thole that couldnt support itself in any way before they had a war there.