Almost half of highly skilled EU workers 'could leave UK within five years'

 

Deloitte study finds 47% were considering leaving after Brexit, while overall one-third of non-British workers could leave

 

Overall, 36% of non-British workers in the UK said they were thinking of leaving within the same period, representing 1.2m jobs out of 3.4 million migrant workers in the UK. Just more than quarter (26%) said they were considering leaving within three years.

 

The research chimes with other evidence that the Brexit vote has prompted some workers from other EU countries to leave already or consider going. This is partly because of uncertainty around the UK’s economic outlook and because any money those workers earn in pounds is now worth less in euros for them to send home. The pound fell sharply after the referendum and is still down 13% against the euro compared with the day of the vote.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/eu-workers-leave-uk-deloitte-brexit

 

and from the Independant

Brexit: More than one million foreign workers preparing to leave UK within five years

 

Highly skilled workers are the most likely to consider leaving, with 47 per cent thinking about upping sticks by 2022

adding to fears that the country is facing a Brexit brain drain, new research shows.

 

The survey by accountancy giant Deloitte shows that 36 per cent of non-British workers currently in the country say they are thinking about leaving by 2022, with 26 per cent planning to move even sooner, by 2020.

 

This figure represents 1.2 million jobs out of 3.4 million migrant workers in Britain, underscoring the severe jobs crisis facing the country as it begins the process of extracting itself from the European Union.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-workers-leave-uk-europe-five-years-non-british-settled-status-a7808751.html

 

This makes me angry - they come to the UK presumably for the 'better paid' employment - not available to them in their own countries. Most of their money, apparently goes to support their families in their birth countries. When things get tough, they up sticks and move on.

However, the UK, rather than invest in training home grown talents for the NHS and other areas, the decide to

 

to come up with sensible immigration plans and to find ways to improve the skills of UK workers and make better use of robots in the workplace.

Well if the current crop are not planning on leaving until 2022 - the UK has plenty of time to come up with ways to invest in UK workers.

More complex than it appears. Some of the EU staff are qualified nurses with specialist skills. My local pharmacist is Spanish. Go around the country, you will find companies employing staff with the skills they need, which would take anyone many years to obtain. Government does not provide the money to pay for colleges to create the course capacity needed to service the UK's needs.

And many from the EU mainland hope that their home countries economies will improve so they can go back to work there. They have left family behind in many cases. They might have elderly parents to care for etc.

This makes me angry - they come to the UK presumably for the 'better paid' employment - not available to them in their own countries. Most of their money, apparently goes to support their families in their birth countries. When things get tough, they up sticks and move on.

Why does it make you angry? Did they promise they'd behave differently??

"It was an affair, not a marriage".

Do you expect unbridled loyalty?. How do you think the migrants feel about Brexit? do you thing they aren't feeling unsettled by the uncertainties? Unsure about if they'll have a job / be allowed to stay?. It may not be that they want to leave, but that they don't want the uncertainty, and take a job elsewhere with more security...

To my mind the issue is made more complex by there being 2 (perhaps more!) distinct challenges for the UK economy:

a) the migrants performing unskilled, low-paid labour (e.g. fruit picking). If they are restricted / leave ; will UK citizens want to take those jobs for that level of pay? (leading to unmet demand, leading to having to pay those workers more, leading to increased cost of those goods),

b) the migrants performing skilled tasks. 2 figures are given, for those (thinking of) leaving by 2020, and by 2022. That doesn't mean in, or after, 2020 and 2022, but by (before). So, there may not be 5 years to train replacements before they leave. Meanwhile, how long will it take to train replacements (not just to have that job title, but to that level of skill / expertise!).

One respondent mentions their pharmacist, who is Spanish.

Simple, train another pharmacist!. Ohh, but that takes a 4-year MPharm degree, but we've got time.

https://www.pharmacyregulation.org/registration/registering-pharmacist/uk-recognised-pharmacist-qualifications

Hang on, there is also a year post-degree, of supervised practice....

But that's OK, if the Spanish pharmacist isn't leaving until late 2022 (if we are lucky), we might (just) be able to train a replacement.

So, we can replace a pharmacist with a pharmacist (phew!).

Ohh, but that Spanish pharmacist has how many years post-qualification experience of independent practice? 3? 5? 10?...... so, now what are the odds of replacing like with like, even if we start training replacements now?.

At best we can train a direct replacement ONLY if that Spanish pharmacist currently has zero years experience post (full) registration, and the replacement we train replaces their current experience level, not that level of experience lost when they leave in x years ........

The situation is likely worse, as the Spanish pharmacist probably has some additional experience already .......

Is there an upside to a)? Possibly, but only for the government in terms of higher wages mean more income tax revenue.... but that may be offset by increased inflation / cost of services, and thee and me will be facing higher inflation (both from increased wages for low-paid jobs leading to increased cost of goods)

An upside to b)? I'm not really seeing one.

OK, so we let in all the migrants we need to do the unskilled jobs the UK citizens don't want to do for peanuts.

We let in all the skilled workers we need to do the jobs we don't have the skilled workers for.

So, who are we actually preventing from coming in by "taking back control of our borders"?

Probably 'Schrodinger's migrant', the refugee who simultaneously steals your job whilst claiming benefits and making sure you can't get a council house ..... except, like Schrodinger's cat ..... do they exist in real life?.

Having free universities would be a good starting point for british student.

More British would then go to uni and gain qualifications.

Bazza makes a lot of very valid comments, that no one could disagree with, even if you strongly support Brexit. This is why there will be long term transitional arrangements and UK borders will not be closed to free movement until the UK has a fully working visa system, as well as education/training in place to support UK citizens.

I still doubt that Brexit will happen, because the damage caused to the UK economy will not be acceptable to most people.

Having free universities would be a good starting point for british student.

More British would then go to uni and gain qualifications.

Where would the money come from? I don't think it's wrong to expect someone to pay for their own education.

Where would the money come from? I don't think it's wrong to expect someone to pay for their own education.

According to a House of Commons select committee report about 40% of student fees will be written off over the years under the rules that exist. And the 60% of fees that are paid will be collected over a very long period. Government have been selling these student loans to DCA's.

Given that Government creates the money as a student loan to give to Universities, would it not be sensible to look at how Univsrsity education is funded ?

Students taking out these loans were told at the time that they would not be taken into account by Mortgage lenders etc, as part of assessing credit worthiness. This has proved to be untrue. Student loan debts are the same as any other in regard to affordability tests etc.

Agree that students should pay something towards University courses, but perhaps the fees should be reduced and there should be a better repayment system. The debts should not be sold to DCA's, some of which have recently started issuing court claims.

Where would the money come from? I don't think it's wrong to expect someone to pay for their own education.

If they are likely to go on to earn more as a graduate : from income tax, across their working life.

Or, should they pay twice?

I think it should be 2-fold : the money from income tax to pay for fees, so no fees payable by the student (as used to be the case!)

Student loan(s) at 0% real (interest at inflation only) for maintenance, repayable (and only shown on credit report) once earning above (insert figure here: median wage, median wage +50%, average wage +30%, average graduate wage less 10%, or whatever!).